Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 JMA was the model that nailed the last storm from yesterday, bringing it further north than any other model and it was correct. I can only assume it and the Euro are correct. I believe all of Northern NJ will get at least a dusting to an inch of snow tonight. But you do realize there is no decent precip until you get SE of DC right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sorry, that came off a little more standoffish than it shoud've. But basically the EC verification so far is very poor, far too far NW than reality. The NW extent of its precip field should essentially be completely ignored.No problem. Do they have accuracy ratings for the NAM somewhere? I personally think it is a horrible model and simply won't think about taking it's solution over the Euro and JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 But you do realize there is no decent precip until you get SE of DC right?Look at how the UKMET handles it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Look at how the UKMET handles it.... IMO there won't be much of an inverted trough but if there is it would affect Monmouth on south more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 But you do realize there is no decent precip until you get SE of DC right?The Euro shows just exactly that through 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Dude the models are seeing the virga as accumulated precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think about a coating to 1/4" at most for metro NJ/NYC....maybe an inch or so out on Long Island....and no real sharp cutoff. Even far S NJ coast only a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The Euro shows just exactly that through 7pm. To be fair, the euro has .16" of precip for DCA by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 To be fair, the euro has .16" of precip for DCA by 7pm. Yeah it shows ~ that for here, slightly more, no reason to think it won't all(or largely be) be virga as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 But you do realize there is no decent precip until you get SE of DC right?Euro shows very light precip in DC prior to 7pm, and DC was reporting light rain at 5pm, right on target. Seeing .01-.03 at stations throughout DC so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro shows very light precip in DC prior to 7pm, and DC was reporting light rain at 5pm, right on target. EC showed 0.16" by 7PM. So far they've had a trace. Maybe they get a 0.01 or 0.02, but definitely not 0.16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think about a coating to 1/4" at most for metro NJ/NYC....maybe an inch or so out on Long Island....and no real sharp cutoff. Even far S NJ coast only a couple inches LOL An inch is a win. That would be my 2nd largest snowfall in two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 EC showed 0.16" by 7PM. So far they've had a trace. Maybe they get a 0.01 or 0.02, but definitely not 0.16. Rain ended at DCA. Only a trace, no measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Rain ended at DCA. Only a trace, no measurable.On wunderground I was just poking around and found .01-.03 already at various stations around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On wunderground I was just poking around and found .01-.03 already at various stations around DC. Quickly approaching 7, a trace or .01 no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This storm is already a NESIS 5 for virga. When does the really heavy virga move in? Gotta love those composite radar views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Quickly approaching 7, a trace or .01 no difference.I have one of these weather stations. Keep in mind that if it shows .01-.03 it can easily be twice that much. For some reason these rain gauges often read too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 18z gfs is cold/dry then cutter after cutter. Hopefully that does not work out, but my hopes are starting to fade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have one of these weather stations. Keep in mind that if it shows .01-.03 it can easily be twice that much. For some reason these rain gauges often read too low. Not a good assumption. They can be adjusted either manually or with a computer-applied adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 18z gfs is cold/dry then cutter after cutter. Hopefully that does not work out, but my hopes are starting to fade I think the first cutter is going to be more of a SWFE. HM echoes this. We should start as snow and thump with a good airmass in place. I'm not believing the 980mb lows over Lake Erie at this point with a PV to the north. Why has the Tuesday threat faded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 18z gfs is cold/dry then cutter after cutter. Hopefully that does not work out, but my hopes are starting to fade It's either cold and dry or warm and rainy....can't get much precip with any cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I wanna add one sobering thought about next wknd potential system. It was my contention that the system bellies under Spoke to a fav of mine at accu tonite. Promise you all like this guy. . He pointed out that If tues system bombs out so far east it could pull the vortex with it and will open the door for the system to cut So unless tues system can stay close we may not wanna see an ocean bomb for more than the obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I think the first cutter is going to be more of a SWFE. HM echoes this. We should start as snow and thump with a good airmass in place. I'm not believing the 980mb lows over Lake Erie at this point with a PV to the north. Why has the Tuesday threat faded? We've had numerous cutters before with a strong PV north of us. I don't see us having a shot at a significant event without a NAO block of some kind. This looks like a cold/dry to warm/cutter pattern that favors the Midwest. Doesn't really matter how cold it is beforehand either if we have a massive cutter surge warm air in. Inland and SNE can sometimes salvage a good amount of snow under the deeper cold air, but southerly winds are the kiss of death for NYC and the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Very nice euro weenie run . Details? How does tuesday/next friday look? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Details? How does tuesday/next friday look? -skisheep It has a snowstorm for NYC at hour 216. Surprisingly, it's not on it's own. The CMC also has a snowstorm during this timeframe as well at around the day 8 timeframe. The CMC also has a light snow event for next tuesday at hour 96 as well. Hour 96 Hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It has a snowstorm for NYC at hour 216. Surprisingly, it's not on it's own. The CMC also has a snowstorm during this timeframe as well at around the day 8 timeframe. The CMC also has a light snow event for next tuesday at hour 96 as well. The event in that 180-216 range shown on alot of models the last 2-3 days needs to stay somewhat weak, if it does we've got a shot at a decent snow, even if it ends as freezing rain or rain because you can be sure that high will be slower to exit than the models currently show and we'd get solid overrunning snows but as usual if it wants to crank a 988mb low over Wisconsin we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It has a snowstorm for NYC at hour 216. Surprisingly, it's not on it's own. The CMC also has a snowstorm during this timeframe as well at around the day 8 timeframe. The CMC also has a light snow event for next tuesday at hour 96 as well. The 0z ECM was a great run. It deepened the cold shot with 850s near -24C Wednesday night. The snowstorm at Day 9 looks legitimate with higher heights moving into Greenland, and it brings down another cold airmass with -16C@850mb. A +PNA looks to be developing at the end of the run, but it's hard to tell if the ridge would amplify out west or just collapse east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It has a snowstorm for NYC at hour 216. Surprisingly, it's not on it's own. The CMC also has a snowstorm during this timeframe as well at around the day 8 timeframe. The CMC also has a light snow event for next tuesday at hour 96 as well. 6z gfs has that low in a similar position to the 216 ECMWF, albeit a little earlier. But nada for Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 This is starting to look like a legitimate arctic outbreak Tuesday-Thursday. The 0z ECM is frigid at 144 hours for the NYC metro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 0z ECM was a great run. It deepened the cold shot with 850s near -24C Wednesday night. The snowstorm at Day 9 looks legitimate with higher heights moving into Greenland, and it brings down another cold airmass with -16C@850mb. A +PNA looks to be developing at the end of the run, but it's hard to tell if the ridge would amplify out west or just collapse east. The Euro has been cutter loving in the medium to long range ever since its upgrade so unless you've got a markedly hostile cutter pattern Day 6 or beyond it will tend to like showing them...its usually a good sign if you start seeing it move away from the idea though eventually and it seems it may be doing that now on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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