MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS bumps NW with the 0.1in line about 30-50 miles. Another big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ah yes, the same GFS which says DCA is going to get 0.16" liquid in the next 2 1/2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Meanwhile Upton says drop back to the 40 and punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ah yes, the same GFS which says DCA is going to get 0.16" liquid in the next 2 1/2 hours. So what do you believe? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would find it pretty funny if we somehow pulled off a few inches out of this, not highly likely at this point but anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So what do you believe? lol At this range and resolution the NAM solution seems most reasonable as far as the NW extent of total precip goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's called virga The GFS, Euro , Euro ensembles ,Ukie and JMA shows Virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nyc sitting at 42 how do u cool the column with .20 qpf. Not sure if any of this is an issue of qpf bl awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There looks to be a lot of dry air. We will see later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mt. Holly radar currently has 25dbz echos over Philly but they are still reporting overcast. Dewpoint is 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 EC was just overall (and I mean starting within 6-hours of its run) way too far NW with its precip, all you have to do is compare what's happening now to it to see that. So it can't be trusted, toss it. 18Z GFS isn't as bad but still a bit too far NW right out of the gate. Could you see a few flurries in NYC? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The problem is that the air is just too dry and honestly too warm in areas that are going to see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Attack the idea, *NOT* the person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 JMA also nailed the last storm, bringing it further north than any other model........ It was correct. Look what it is doing again. Looks like 1-3 inches for all of Northern NJ tonight. Where is that Nor'easter guy. I hereby eat my crow. I did not think it would come further north, but it did again. As Nor'easter said, the models have been under doing the Southeast ridge all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Taking a look at the far long range models, it seems clear that the PV will be moving into south central Canada. That might be really good placement for us as it would allow for a less supressed track while keeping us on the edge of the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 JMA also nailed the last storm, bringing it further north than any other model........ It was correct. Look what it is doing again. Looks like 1-3 inches for all of Northern NJ tonight. It is my meteorological opinion that that image of the JMA has a 0% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It is my meteorological opinion that that image of the JMA has a 0% chance of verifying. Exactly. While the in me would love to see it verify, the brain says "no chance." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It is my meteorological opinion that that image of the JMA has a 0% chance of verifying.So, you are going against the Euro and the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So, you are going against the Euro and the JMA? I already explained my reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I already explained my reasoning.Ok, I will read. Just got home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 JMA for Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ok, I will read. Just got home from work. Sorry, that came off a little more standoffish than it shoud've. But basically the EC verification so far is very poor, far too far NW than reality. The NW extent of its precip field should essentially be completely ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro Control run also has at least an inch of snow throughout Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You know its a bad winter when the JMA is is being cited more and more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You know its a bad winter when the JMA is is being cited more and more often. The JMA is ranked number 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The JMA is ranked number 3. In terms of what? Verifying when? I'd be willing to bet inside 18 hours there are more than 2 models with higher verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 In terms of what? Verifying when? I'd be willing to bet inside 18 hours there are more than 2 models with higher verification. I think overall within the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What? The Euro is not really the model you want to use when you are within 24 hours of an event IMO.What? The Euro is the one with the highest accuracy ratings of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The JMA is ranked number 3. lolwut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 lolwut?JMA was the model that nailed the last storm from yesterday, bringing it further north than any other model and it was correct. I can only assume it and the Euro are correct. I believe all of Northern NJ will get at least a dusting to an inch of snow tonight. The UKMET also brought us at least a dusting to an inch tonight. I still remember that storm back in 2000 that gave NC 2 feet of snow I believe, where it was forecast to do the same and go out to sea before affecting us. Went to sleep with nothing in the forecast. Woke up with 6 inches on the ground. Oops. Models love to send these out to sea and they very often go further north and west. I will not go against the Euro and the JMA considering that the JMA was the most correct with the storm yesterday already. It is nailing this pattern, and the Euro has the best stats, and the UKMET is number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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