IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Even though the sytem ticked a tad NW with the quicker phase, it also has become more organized per the simulated radar. It gets a decent band going but that never even comes close to making it up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The phase was about 3-6 hrs quicker on the 18z run. Yep, any earlier and some people are in the game, but largely too little, too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 long range EURO is an ugly cutter pattern untill we can get a more west based -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Northern branch energy just too strong for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If the Euro at 9 days was right, it'd be rain, and I know Winter time lapse rates may not effectively transport gusts down from about 1.5km up, but crikey, 90 mph winds at 850 mb would be something to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Northern branch energy just too strong for this area. rad13.gif Ouch. So close SO FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Something for the to hang his hat on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 long range EURO is an ugly cutter pattern untill we can get a more west based -NAO What the euro shows can't happen. It shows energy cutting into confluence and vortex. Not possible. It will be forced to go underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What the euro shows can't happen. It shows energy cutting into confluence and vortex. Not possible. It will be forced to go underneath. What the euro shows can't happen. It shows energy cutting into confluence and vortex. Not possible. It will be forced to go underneath. Im with you , right up until you said CAN`T .... anythings possible , but you would think it should cut under . Will probably take a few days to go to towards its ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Even as the EURO storm cuts there looks to be at least a temp period of frozen precip whether that be snow/sleet/zr not sure....Plus we may see a gradual colder trend occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What the euro shows can't happen. It shows energy cutting into confluence and vortex. Not possible. It will be forced to go underneath. I thought so too, to me this makes much more sense that it would dig further south. Possibly phasing with that southern stream S/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Im with you , right up until you said CAN`T .... anythings possible , but you would think it should cut under . Will probably take a few days to go to towards its ensembles . You would probably need a less amplified solution than the OP is showing for the cold to linger longer before eventually getting scoured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Even as the EURO storm cuts there looks to be at least a temp period of frozen precip whether that be snow/sleet/zr not sure....Plus we may see a gradual colder trend occur. With the -20C airmass beforehand, the Day 9 storm is basically guaranteed to start frozen everywhere in NYC metro. Suburbs would probably see a nice front-end dump before changing to rain. There's a beautiful west-based -NAO block on the 12z ECM after that, so you'd see another storm threat after the cutter if you extrapolate out. Airmass at Day 10 is also cold with -12C 850s in here. As for tonight's storm, I don't see too many boundary layer problems. Central Park is at 42/25 and White Plains is at 39/24. With those low dewpoints and the sun going down in an hour, what falls should be snow. Completely disagree with Ray that there is a bunch of rain involved here. I bet Central Park starts as snow if they precipitate...JFK is more questionable but they should flip to snow really quick with due north winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I thought so too, to me this makes much more sense that it would dig further south. Possibly phasing with that southern stream S/W We can't just assume it's going to cut because of what it shows over a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 As for tonight's storm, I don't see too many boundary layer problems. Central Park is at 42/25 and White Plains is at 39/24. With those low dewpoints and the sun going down in an hour, what falls should be snow. Completely disagree with Ray that there is a bunch of rain involved here. I bet Central Park starts as snow if they precipitate...JFK is more questionable but they should flip to snow really quick with due north winds. Remember, I was going of the EC... which I doubt verifies. Its colder than progged now, probably because reality is shifted southeast and the GFS/NAM are more likely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You would probably need a less amplified solution than the OP is showing for the cold to linger longer before eventually getting scoured out. Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_192.gif You would probably need a less amplified solution than the OP is showing for the cold to linger longer before eventually getting scoured out. Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_192.gif Yeh it may be a case of the Euro bundling the energy too much . We saw it do it back in DEC do the same thing . Im not saying it cant happen , but I am leaning towards the cut under because I think the playing field is a little stronger today than it was a month ago . As it was in Dec it came underneath . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We can't just assume it's going to cut because of what it shows over a week out. Who's saying it's going to cut? From a scientific standpoint myself and others are arguing that the pattern doesn't favor what the Euro is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeh it may be a case of the Euro bundling the energy too much . We saw it do it back in DEC do the same thing . Im not saying it cant happen , but I am leaning towards the cut under because I think the playing field is a little stronger today than it was a month ago . As it was in Dec it came underneath . The Euro has some blocking/ridging over Greenland which locks the PV into place and doesn't allow it to escape. The GFS doesn't have this so the PV is able to move out before the storm arrives. That's why blocking is so important. If we get that blocking there is no way that the storm itself is going to cut into the PV without being forced to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeh it may be a case of the Euro bundling the energy too much . We saw it do it back in DEC do the same thing . Im not saying it cant happen , but I am leaning towards the cut under because I think the playing field is a little stronger today than it was a month ago . As it was in Dec it came underneath . We need a weaker wave like 2/22/08 to have a decent chance of at least a better front end thump. A wrapped up solution may have a brief coastal mix before changing over to rain. The way the ensemble mean breaks in the coming days will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should someone start an obs thread for tonight? Looks like something out on LI and parts of the Jersey shore, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ensembles have the same qpf as the op. Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ensembles have the same qpf as the op. Game on According to the EC, DCA should've had 0.02" by 1PM and another 0.14" between 1PM and 7PM. So far they've had virga. That should give us a good idea of just how reliable this run of the EC was with tonight's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ensembles have the same qpf as the op. Game on Be lucky if we get flurries because at this point it seems unlikely we get much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should someone start an obs thread for tonight? Looks like something out on LI and parts of the Jersey shore, at least. 18Z nam does print out close to .2 for kmtp, but it is dry so alot of this will be virga.. http://68.226.77.253/text/META212/NAM212_kmtp.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Be lucky if we get flurries because at this point it seems unlikely we get much more than that. JMA and Ukie have precip for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 18Z nam does print out close to .2 for kmtp, but it is dry so alot of this will be virga.. http://68.226.77.253/text/META212/NAM212_kmtp.txt Poster in NW Atlantic County NJ reported a bit of sleet in the Philly obs thread, so some parts of the area will get SOMETHING tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The Euro is not really the model you want to use when you are within 24 hours of an event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The Euro is not really the model you want to use when you are within 24 hours of an event IMO. It is a hi-res model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS bumps NW with the 0.1in line about 30-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mt. Holly is going with a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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