pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 KNYC hasn't been below freezing since 4am on Friday, Jan 4th. This is now an unreal 321 hours, or 13.4 days, or almost 2 weeks, of temperatures at or above 32F in the park. In the middle of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its an odd shift, but every model has hiccups I guess. BL still doesn't look great but I suppose a coating isn't out of the question in the city. Maybe an inch if you're really lucky. Boundary drops fast according to soundings. We can only see 6 hour increments. It could've dropped to the cold soundings after only half hour of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Boundary drops fast according to soundings. We can only see 6 hour increments. It could've dropped to the cold soundings after only half hour of precip. It definitely starts warm at TTN for a while so I'm assuming the same thing at NYC. Precip rate still doesn't look great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 KNYC hasn't been below freezing since 4am on Friday, Jan 4th. This is now an unreal 321 hours, or 13.4 days, or almost 2 weeks, of temperatures at or above 32F in the park. In the middle of January. hmm I wonder what the record for January not going below 32 is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 some of that precip on the euro is going to be wasted as rain... the BL is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 KNYC hasn't been below freezing since 4am on Friday, Jan 4th. This is now an unreal 321 hours, or 13.4 days, or almost 2 weeks, of temperatures at or above 32F in the park. In the middle of January.Weren't SST way above normal the last two summers? Maybe that has something to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It definitely starts warm at TTN for a while so I'm assuming the same thing at NYC. Precip rate still doesn't look great either.Starts warm in NYC but the next 2 increments are plenty cold. Precip might've moved in 3 hours after the sounding and temps could've dropped instantly. We can't see in between the 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Does anybody have the Euro for KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Does anybody have the Euro for KMMU? .16". Same surface temp issue right before the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 .16". Same surface temp issue right before the start. Thanks, it feels warm outside. The sun feels more like March or April. Interestingly enough Mt. Holly has now added a 30% chance of snow for tonight. That would be quite a shock for a lot of the general public expecting nothing. A chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Starts warm in NYC but the next 2 increments are plenty cold. Precip might've moved in 3 hours after the sounding and temps could've dropped instantly. We can't see in between the 6 hours. Its still 40 at TTN after the first 0.01 and 33 after the next 0.14 6 hours later. I don't think its much different at NYC, so I'd guess 0.05-0.10 will be wasted as rain or non-accumulating snow even assuming the EC is right. BTW 0.14 in 6 hours is not heavy or even moderate, that's a pretty light rate. And I don't think its gonna be any heavier at NYC either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 12z GFS did have another miller B in the far long range. This has to be the first winter in awhile that I remember not at least having some consistent model porn to look at. Even last year it seemed like there was always at least one model showing a big storm in the long range. This year seems much more far and in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the ECM has a GLC at hours 168-192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the ECM has a GLC at hours 168-192. It looks like it has more room to dig south. At the same time the northern stream wave is dropping down from the plains there is a southern stream shortwave down in the western gulf. Still waiting to see it all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 It looks like it has more room to dig south. At the same time the northern stream wave is dropping down from the plains there is a southern stream shortwave down in the western gulf. Still waiting to see it all play out. Yeah, almost sure that the evolution of that storm will change next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It looks like it has more room to dig south. At the same time the northern stream wave is dropping down from the plains there is a southern stream shortwave down in the western gulf. Still waiting to see it all play out. It cuts and gets mild before front comes through. Gets cold after again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mayb the Euro is right but the NAO is progged to be NEG during that period , with the PV sitting in Canada . If theres a time for something to belly under and the models catch in a day or 2 its in these situations . The Euro and GFS may be right , but i dont just buy every opertional solution. No b@LLS No Glory . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, almost sure that the evolution of that storm will change next run.E-wall for me hasn't updated the Euro past hr 168. That southern stream S/W was either non existent or much weaker on the 00z run. I would say there is a possibility it could phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 E-wall for me hasn't updated the Euro past hr 168. That southern stream S/W was either non existent or much weaker on the 00z run. I would say there is a possibility it could phase. It cuts up through the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It cuts up through the Great Lakes It does, BUT verbatim it looks like a front end thump of some sort of wintery precip maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It really looks like the front end low level cold air wants to stay put even though the OP Euro tries to cut to the lakes. The ensemble was further south last night . That OP run would be an icy mess before the warm sector arrives. Maybe the strong high will result in track further south closer to the ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It really looks like the front end low level cold air wants to stay put even though the OP Euro tries to cut to the lakes. The ensemble was further south last night . That OP run would be an icy mess before the warm sector arrives. Maybe the strong high will result in track further south closer to the ensemble mean? The high position is pretty bad though, you'd want it more north, we'd get into a SE Flow in the position its shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The high position is pretty bad though, you'd want it more north, we'd get into a SE Flow in the position its shown. Right, the high would have to be more to the north with a little more +PNA to suppress the SE Ridge. I think that we had an event in December that was initially forecast by the OP Euro to cut and came further south like the ensemble mean was showing. At least this time we have more antecedent cold should a more southerly track pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM even closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The ensemble mean is further south and its beat the operational a few times ths year in even worse patterns. I hav no operational support so i am goin w the ens that says it takes a more southern route. Its only weather not life and death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM close to a phase at 12 hours, too little too late. End result will be an even more painful radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM even closer. That's quite a bit NW of 12z actually. Really really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM even closer. The phase was about 3-6 hrs quicker on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM simulated radar shows only broken showers reaching the coast (probably virga). Keeps the heavy stuff down to around AC, and barely that. Then brushes eastern LI and RI Northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Virga field expanding, but haven't seen any significant increase of precip reaching the ground on the Sterling radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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