Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

[IsentropicLift]

 

This is our coldest part of the year on avg. Having bl issues in mid January, in which climo supports our coldest avg is unusual.

 

Cold doesn't mean cold and snowy. With arctic air comes dry air. You can thank the arctic air for keeping Fridays storm supressed. You want to be on the edge of the really cold air which is why if you can get a southern stream wave to phase with the PV you can end up with a major KU event.

[IsentropicLift]

 

ths is kind of silly...nyc averages a good amount more snow than dc it is the lack of a good cold air mass and precip  rates

Okay both of you have your goggles on again. I simply stated that DC can get all snow when NYC gets all rain because the temperature gradiant is often alligned west to east rather than north to south. How often is the rain snow line along I-95? Obviously places further south and west can be snow while the city and LI are rain.

[Allsnow]

Cold doesn't mean cold and snowy. With arctic air comes dry air. You can thank the arctic air for keeping Fridays storm supressed. You want to be on the edge of the really cold air which is why if you can get a southern stream wave to phase with the PV you can end up with a major KU event.

Cold means my bl is not torch, you have completely abandon my original post. I typed nor read anything about storm track or ku

[IsentropicLift]

 

ths is kind of silly...nyc averages a good amount more snow than dc it is the lack of a good cold air mass and precip  rates

I was just using DC as an example of how they can be snow (further south and west) while at the same time NYC can be all rain (further north and east). Typically with a strong miller A you can get snow from DC to Boston.

[Allsnow]

Okay both of you have your goggles on again. I simply stated that DC can get all snow when NYC gets all rain because the temperature gradiant is often alligned west to east rather than north to south. How often is the rain snow line along I-95? Obviously places further south and west can be snow while the city and LI are rain.

What? It's dependent on storm track. I can remember one time in my life dc was snow and NYC was rain. And that was after a 6 inch front end thump, the slotted. Last time I check dc is along 95 and avg significant less snow then NYC.

[IsentropicLift]

 

Cold means my bl is not torch, you have completely abandon my original post. I typed nor read anything about storm track or ku

All of this garbage belongs in the banter thread anyway. You have BL issues because this is a region that even during the coldest times of the year has issues unless you can get the perfect setup with great blocking and a fresh cold air source ala winter of 10-11.

[GD0815]

  

no what you said is that longitude plays more ofa role than latitude in this part of the country.  you can put  all your  weenie icons up u want, but this is dead wrong.

 

 I was just using DC as an example of how they can be snow (further south and west) while at the same time NYC can be all rain (further north and east). Typically with a strong miller A you can get snow from DC to Boston.

[IsentropicLift]

 

What? It's dependent on storm track. I can remember one time in my life dc was snow and NYC was rain. And that was after a 6 inch front end thump, the slotted. Last time I check dc is along 95 and avg significant less snow then NYC.

When did I say that DC averaged more snowfall than NYC?

[Allsnow]

You live by the Ocean. In this part of the country it's a lot more about longitude than lattitude. Unless you live in Maine. That's why DC can get all snow and NY can get rain.

[PB GFI]

Day 7 system , 12z GFS and 0z Euro worlds apart , lets fight about this guys .

[IsentropicLift]

Anybody know where I can get the GFS past day 7 now that the NCEP site is down again. It looks like the 12z GFS wants to make things interesting for the ten day threat.

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't be surprised if all the models brought back the miller B as we got closer. Very often models will hit at a big storm some 8-10 days out only to lose it the next few days and then bring it back again. The fact that many models showed the miller B a few days ago gives me hope. 

[MJO812]

Some light snow on the RGEM for NYC.Probably just virga though.

 

[MJO812]

12z Ukie has an inverted trough over NYC for tonight's storm.

[tombo82685]

Amazing its mid January and we are still fighting bl problems lol

 

the reason why the BL is warm, is because your winds last night into this morning were sw and switched to west. If you noticed the highs for the day were at night. The southerly winds brought warm air in as well as the downsloping off the mtns with the west wind. Above the bl its plenty cold enough to support snow.

[famartin]

It shouldn't be all that surprising to be fighting BL in January in NYC, remember the average winter is something like 80% rain, 20% snow there. 

[nzucker]

It shouldn't be all that surprising to be fighting BL in January in NYC, remember the average winter is something like 80% rain, 20% snow there. 

Also, averages  here in mid-January are around 36/24. That means that we get above freezing on most mid-January days, and thus we can have boundary layer problems. 

[bluewave]

Day 7 system , 12z GFS and 0z Euro worlds apart , lets fight about this guys .

 

The Euro and its ensembles also have a different looking storm evolution at that time range.

Tough to be sure on how things will develop this far out.

 

[Kaner587]

just so you guys know the 12z euro drops 0.2+ for NYC east for tomorrows storm.

[Snow_Miser]

just so you guys know the 12z euro drops 0.2+ for NYC east for tomorrows storm.

That's pretty interesting, especially considering the ECM sometimes tends to reduce precipitation as the event approaches.

[ag3]

Dont know what the Euro is doing, but it made a very big jump for tomorrow's event.

 

NYC: .22"
LGA: .23"
JFK: .28"
ISP: .30"
FOK: .32"
EWR: .22"

BDR: .22"
 

[Allsnow]

just so you guys know the 12z euro drops 0.2+ for NYC east for tomorrows storm.

Yes. Close to .25. Now is it correct?

[Allsnow]

It shouldn't be all that surprising to be fighting BL in January in NYC, remember the average winter is something like 80% rain, 20% snow there.

Thanks rays. I stand corrected

[SR Airglow]

Dont know what the Euro is doing, but it made a very big jump for tomorrow's event.

 

NYC: .22"

LGA: .23"

JFK: .28"

ISP: .30"

FOK: .32"

EWR: .22"

BDR: .22"

 

Wait WHAT? Might it be forgetting to put a zero after the decimal? That just does not make sense... Can someone put in HPN?

 

-skisheep

[Snow_Miser]

Dont know what the Euro is doing, but it made a very big jump for tomorrow's event.

 

NYC: .22"

LGA: .23"

JFK: .28"

ISP: .30"

FOK: .32"

EWR: .22"

BDR: .22"

 

It gives TTN around .21" as well. Really interesting. Doubtful of such a solution though.

[Kaner587]

Yes. Close to .25. Now is it correct?

ya based on the fact no other model shows this much precip I'm leaning towards no but who knows

 

Edit: ukie actually comes close probably around 0.15 for NYC

[Snow_Miser]

Wait WHAT? Might it be forgetting to put a zero after the decimal? That just does not make sense... Can someone put in HPN?

 

-skisheep

HPN sees .18" on the ECMWF.

[ag3]

Added more sites:

 

NYC: .22"
LGA: .23"
JFK: .28"
ISP: .30"
FOK: .32"
EWR: .22"
BDR: .22"
Philly: .22"
HPN: .18"
 

[Allsnow]

ya based on the fact no other model shows this much precip I'm leaning towards no but who knows

It would be all snow for NYC. Very wet run for dc. Perhaps American models will come closer at 18z

[famartin]

Its an odd shift, but every model has hiccups I guess.  BL still doesn't look great but I suppose a coating isn't out of the question in the city.  Maybe an inch if you're really lucky.