Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z GGEM and Euro brings back the miller b for next week. For the fish! We'll see hopefully something can pop off the coast but I doubt it, it just doesn't want to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For the fish! We'll see hopefully something can pop off the coast but I doubt it, it just doesn't want to snow here. Not really for the fish. 6z nam is so close for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not really for the fish. 6z nam is so close for Friday. Both the CMC and the Euro don't do much for us next week, and yes close to flurries on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Both the CMC and the Euro don't do much for us next week, and yes close to flurries on Friday. CMC did bring back the miller b though. Just a bit late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 CMC did bring back the miller b though. Just a bit late.If ur looking for a storm to come out of the northern branch and blowup , you are goin to need way more buckling of the trough. You would want to see the system running off the delmarva at worst , hatteras would b better A storm is not goin to come to the jersey shore , stop and make a left hand turn. With the flow currently progged So if that's the path then you will see all the deepening to far to your east. It's likely that we are cold and dry during this period but then there are big differences between the Euro and GFS for next Friday , lotta time to sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 06Z GFS has raised temps. during final week of Jan. by about 8 degs. per day from its previous 06Z run. Has been happening since mid-Dec to various GFS runs. It does make it wetter as a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tuesday into Wednesday next week is extremely cold on the 0z ECM with -20C 850s over the NYC area. It's going to be a week of large negative departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 06Z GFS has raised temps. during final week of Jan. by about 8 degs. per day from its previous 06Z run. Has been happening since mid-Dec to various GFS runs. It does make it wetter as a consolation prize. Someone posted the 850 temps for some places down in the south that were modeled at 240 or 300 hours and showed what they are now...this is always a fun thing to do with the GFS...a few winters ago it had -20C 850s at Jacksonville at Day 10, it ultimately verified at around 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am surprised there's not more comments on the 0z ECM...that's an extremely impressive airmass Tuesday-Thursday next week with many suburbs probably falling below 0F if they have snow cover. The 0z ECM shows a reload at Day 10 with the PV diving into Southeast Canada and -16C 850s moving back into NYC. We haven't seen this type of sustained cold for a while. I think the snow threats will develop with that pattern, and we'll probably see squalls with an arctic FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GGEM brought back the miller B yes that is currently progged to be OTS but it also has another big storm at hr 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREF ticked northwest. .10 line is near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GGEM brought back the miller B yes that is currently progged to be OTS but it also has another big storm at hr 228 Hopefully its a trend, How reliable is the GGEM ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm still cautious about the next 2-3 weeks. It's like this winter has tricks up sleeves. Just like the winter of 2007-2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Has it been a week since we last saw the sun? It sure feels like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hopefully its a trend, How reliable is the GGEM ??It's one of the better models, I'm not sure if it scores better than the GFS or not. It's had a fairly strong signal for a storm in the 10-14 day range but it's been pretty much on it's own showing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hopefully its a trend, How reliable is the GGEM ?? The GEM has caught some big storms in the past that other models miss in the long range but that may be because it tends to overphase stuff a bit in the medium to long range. It did catch 2/25/10 well before most other models did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GGEM brought back the miller B yes that is currently progged to be OTS but it also has another big storm at hr 228The Euro is just a day faster with this system , just not as deep at the 7 - 8 days timeframe .The GFS has the ridge in the east followed by a frontal passage. Totally different look . Many days to work out details . but I am inclined to believe that the trough is still in the east next weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREF ticked northwest. .10 line is near NY none of that paltry amount wwould be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 none of that paltry amount wwould be snow Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Why not? well, 1. you need to fight off the dry air, which is shown in this sounding 2nd, your bl is pretty darn warm so you need heavier precip rates to wet bulb down, .1 over 6 hours won't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the real reason the sref mean came NW is because of one nutty member showing over .5" for us. the majority show us getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amazing its mid January and we are still fighting bl problems lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 well, 1. you need to fight off the dry air, which is shown in this sounding 2nd, your bl is pretty darn warm so you need heavier precip rates to wet bulb down, .1 over 6 hours won't do that. well, 1. you need to fight off the dry air, which is shown in this sounding 2nd, your bl is pretty darn warm so you need heavier precip rates to wet bulb down, .1 over 6 hours won't do that. STOP WITH YOUR SCIENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amazing its mid January and we are still fighting bl problems lol Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SadYou live by the Ocean. In this part of the country it's a lot more about longitude than lattitude. Unless you live in Maine. That's why DC can get all snow and NY can get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amazing its mid January and we are still fighting bl problems lol I find that unusual too. Just baffling when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I find that unusual too. Just baffling when you think about it.You guys seem to forget that this is the norm. To get snow all the way to the coast on a consistent basis is rare. Even for mid-January. Relax guys, we're still not even half way through the heart of the snow season. Still a solid 6-8 weeks to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You guys seem to forget that this is the norm. To get snow all the way to the coast on a consistent basis is rare. Even for mid-January. Relax guys, we're still not even half way through the heart of the snow season. Still a solid 6-8 weeks to go. This is our coldest part of the year on avg. Having bl issues in mid January, in which climo supports our coldest avg is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You live by the Ocean. In this part of the country it's a lot more about longitude than lattitude. Unless you live in Maine. That's why DC can get all snow and NY can get rain. No Dc can get all snow with a hugging costal low, because our wide direction torches our bl. I can count on my one hand how many time I have seen dc all snow, and NYC rain. Your post is just a off the wall statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You live by the Ocean. In this part of the country it's a lot more about longitude than lattitude. Unless you live in Maine. That's why DC can get all snow and NY can get rain. ths is kind of silly...nyc averages a good amount more snow than dc it is the lack of a good cold air mass and precip rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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