CooL Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those who want something to hang their hates on for early Friday still take a look at 12/12/82...the #2 current analog on CIPS...there are some major similarities to the current event...the charts do not look anything like a major snowfall but over 4 inches fell at JFK, 3 at ISP with 7 inches at PHL http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us1212.php No where near as much phasing between the 2 streams http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/f30.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Every single ensemble run today has produced a storm in this location on one ensemble member, and it was a different member each run. On the 18z run it was member P004, at 12z it was member P003, and at 6z it was member P002. They all have the low of similar time, strength, and placement. Clearly the potential is there, has been and still is. Who knows if it will ever come to fruition however. The last two frames are from the latest 18z run that just came out with P004 producing a nice storm for us next Tuesday. Only one member from each run is a fairly weak signal, unfortunately. I wonder how cold it will become if a system does amplify Tuesday. You can see that the ensemble members that show major amplification have -20C 850s all the way down near the AL/TN border...that's some serious cold. A large Nor'easter would probably bring sub-zero morning lows to the NYC metro area if it occurred on Tuesday at the height of the cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Only one member from each run is a fairly weak signal, unfortunately. I wonder how cold it will become if a system does amplify Tuesday. You can see that the ensemble members that show major amplification have -20C 850s all the way down near the AL/TN border...that's some serious cold. A large Nor'easter would probably bring sub-zero morning lows to the NYC metro area if it occurred on Tuesday at the height of the cold snap. In the UHI itself, 850 temps under -25 C are probably needed to know the mercury below zero at 2m. Congrats on your 16.5" of snow on the winter, btw. At least someone's getting in on the action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 In the UHI itself, 850 temps under -25 C are probably needed to know the mercury below zero at 2m. Congrats on your 16.5" of snow on the winter, btw. At least someone's getting in on the action... NYC has such a tough time getting below zero with the UHI. I believe 850s were around -24C in the Jan 2009 outbreak, and Central Park had a low of 6F. A lot of it has to do with wind direction; NYC needs a N or NNW wind to get below zero most of the time, as NW winds downslope the City itself. It's important that the cold air source be more from eastern Canada than from western Canada in order for this to happen. It's been a decent winter here so far, nothing great but not as horrible as further south or within the City. The cold second half of January coming and frigid November cancels out the warm December and first half of January. Snowfall is a tick above average so far at 16.5" with some threats on the horizon. I really enjoyed November's cold and the 11/7 Nor'easter, and I also enjoyed the stretch from 12/20 to 1/4 when we had three minor snowfalls followed by cold. Overall, a very average winter in the suburbs. I think it will be remembered as a better than average winter when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 In the UHI itself, 850 temps under -25 C are probably needed to know the mercury below zero at 2m. Yes. In 1994, the last time Central Park got below zero, they were ~-27C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NYC has such a tough time getting below zero with the UHI. I believe 850s were around -24C in the Jan 2009 outbreak, and Central Park had a low of 6F. A lot of it has to do with wind direction; NYC needs a N or NNW wind to get below zero most of the time, as NW winds downslope the City itself. It's important that the cold air source be more from eastern Canada than from western Canada in order for this to happen. It's been a decent winter here so far, nothing great but not as horrible as further south or within the City. The cold second half of January coming and frigid November cancels out the warm December and first half of January. Snowfall is a tick above average so far at 16.5" with some threats on the horizon. I really enjoyed November's cold and the 11/7 Nor'easter, and I also enjoyed the stretch from 12/20 to 1/4 when we had three minor snowfalls followed by cold. Overall, a very average winter in the suburbs. I think it will be remembered as a better than average winter when all is said and done. I had a meteorologist tell me after the 2004 outbreak his theory why there had been so few below 0 days in the 90s and 2000s to that point for NYC was that the arctic airmasses seemed to originate more from western Canada during that span than vs. eastern Canada....there would seem to be logic in that theory as the Great Lakes really modify those airmasses. What I cannot figure out though is all the below 0 readings on Long Island in the later part of the 80s with very marginal arctic air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 18z RGEM still gets some precip up here on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 18z RGEM still gets some precip up here on Friday 21Z SREFs are gonna be an hour late according to NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 21Z SREFs are gonna be an hour late according to NCEP. Yep, just saw it. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I had a meteorologist tell me after the 2004 outbreak his theory why there had been so few below 0 days in the 90s and 2000s to that point for NYC was that the arctic airmasses seemed to originate more from western Canada during that span than vs. eastern Canada....there would seem to be logic in that theory as the Great Lakes really modify those airmasses. What I cannot figure out though is all the below 0 readings on Long Island in the later part of the 80s with very marginal arctic air in place. I recently noted some posts (from Famartin & Tmagan, IIRC) which observed that Islip has not been below zero since 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I had a meteorologist tell me after the 2004 outbreak his theory why there had been so few below 0 days in the 90s and 2000s to that point for NYC was that the arctic airmasses seemed to originate more from western Canada during that span than vs. eastern Canada....there would seem to be logic in that theory as the Great Lakes really modify those airmasses. What I cannot figure out though is all the below 0 readings on Long Island in the later part of the 80s with very marginal arctic air in place. Optimum cold in this area is produced by the Hudson Bay High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 As for tomorrow...most of these eastern L.I. only storms often find a way to fizzle...notable exceptions would likely be Dec 27, 2004...February 20, 1999 (14 inches at Montauk)...February 25, 1990 (up to 16 inches...though this was a Norlun trough, IIRC)...the big ACY storm in Feb '89 clipped the East End with 4 inches or so. I think there was also one in the snowless month of February 2004 (in the midst of a very snowy winter)...the East End was clipped by 5 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think knyc recorded a 1 degree low in January 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think knyc recorded a 1 degree low in January 2004. Yeah, I thought so too, maybe it was 4 degrees. It came close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I had a meteorologist tell me after the 2004 outbreak his theory why there had been so few below 0 days in the 90s and 2000s to that point for NYC was that the arctic airmasses seemed to originate more from western Canada during that span than vs. eastern Canada....there would seem to be logic in that theory as the Great Lakes really modify those airmasses. What I cannot figure out though is all the below 0 readings on Long Island in the later part of the 80s with very marginal arctic air in place. Its much easier to go below zero on the eastern end of LI, all you need is a very dry airmass and good radational cooling conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Has there ever been a day where Central Park didn't make it out of the single digits for daytime highs? I'm thinking Christmas day 1980 but I'm not sure. The winter of 1976-77 was phenomenol for cold with upstate NY into the -40's or -50's for night time lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Has there ever been a day where Central Park didn't make it out of the single digits for daytime highs? Quite a few... here's all of them. Not 1980 or the 70s however... the most recent was 1/21/1985. 2F 12/30/19174F 2/ 5/19184F 12/30/18806F 12/31/19176F 1/24/18827F 2/10/18997F 2/17/18967F 2/ 5/18867F 12/20/18847F 1/ 3/18798F 2/15/19438F 12/20/19428F 2/ 9/19348F 1/13/19128F 2/ 8/18958F 1/12/18869F 1/21/19859F 1/13/19149F 2/12/18999F 2/11/18999F 2/ 2/1881 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, I thought so too, maybe it was 4 degrees. It came close but no cigar. It may have even been 0, we were following it like crazy on the old easternwx forum or wright weather board, it was like a snowstorm thread. It got down to 1 around 11pm and it looked like a lock but the temp never budged after that, the winds were W-NW 280-290 or so which may have been a problem as was posted earlier. The previous day we also cleared out a bit early following the snow which allowed our temps to get pretty high, if we cleared out later we may have pulled it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It may have even been 0, we were following it like crazy on the old easternwx forum or wright weather board, it was like a snowstorm thread. It got down to 1 around 11pm and it looked like a lock but the temp never budged after that, the winds were W-NW 280-290 or so which may have been a problem as was posted earlier. The previous day we also cleared out a bit early following the snow which allowed our temps to get pretty high, if we cleared out later we may have pulled it off. On 1/10/2004, with no snow cover, the low at Central Park was 1 with a high of 15. The low was again 1 on 1/16/2004 with 5 fresh inches on the ground, but the high got up to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/10/2004, with no snow cover, the low at Central Park was 1 with a high of 15. The low was again 1 on 1/16/2004 with 5 fresh inches on the ground, but the high got up to 24. The 16th was the one I was thinking of, it got up to 18 or so on the afternoon of the 15th which was quite a bit higher than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NYC has such a tough time getting below zero with the UHI. What does UHI stands for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What does UHI stands for? Urban heat island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NYC never really gets winter when I was at Lyndon State College and the University of Wisconsin - Madison we got winter, and boy do I miss it. The ground was white from December to March, that was in the mid 1970's to low 1980's. Now when I go visit family and friends in Wisconsin during Xmas it is much warmer and it even rains a decent amount of time. During the 1970's and early 1980's it hardly rained in Wisconsin in the winter. So NYC winters are wimpy and I miss those sub zero days or heavy snow at -10F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Had a high temp of 7 here on 1/19/94 for the lowest max I've ever recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NYC never really gets winter when I was at Lyndon State College and the University of Wisconsin - Madison we got winter, and boy do I miss it. The ground was white from December to March, that was in the mid 1970's to low 1980's. Now when I go visit family and friends in Wisconsin during Xmas it is much warmer and it even rains a decent amount of time. During the 1970's and early 1980's it hardly rained in Wisconsin in the winter. So NYC winters are wimpy and I miss those sub zero days or heavy snow at -10F. average annual snowfall in Madison is only around 40"...but i agree with you on the cold. NYC doesnt get in on the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Had a high temp of 7 here on 1/19/94 for the lowest max I've ever recorded. High at TTN was a lovely 4 that day. After a low of -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 High at TTN was a lovely 4 that day. After a low of -6. Also of note is that even though I've seen -22 out here in Elko for a low, I have yet to see a high temperature as low as that day back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 In January 2004 (the second 1 degree day in the park...I think) I recall the 850s flirting with -30 very nearby if not overhead. The coldest core at 850 passed just to th northeast which helped BOS down to -7F at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z NAM is just as ugly as the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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