nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The cold could rival February 1996 or January 1994.. Now that's some incredible cold. Models are still waffling, but support for an arctic outbreak is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Models are still waffling, but support for an arctic outbreak is increasing. We get some snow to go with hit, places won't even crack 15 degrees for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I think we can get an all out blizzard when it "relax" a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 People who were/are harping how bad this winter is or how similar it is to last yr pull me a model depiction even in fantasy land where -40c 850 temps kissed northern Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nam at 66 is phasing. Should be interesting. It looks pretty decent with the second wave. Not sure where it would have progressed with the second wave from here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Take a look at the 700 RH field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Highs in the single digits for kJFK on the 12z GFShttp://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kjfk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Just getting a look at stuff for the first time in a few days. I think it will be pretty hard for mostly everyone in the Northeast to escape this pattern without seeing at least a snowstorm of the light to probably moderate variety. One things for sure...almost every indicator supports a flip to a very wintry pattern including the dominant PV on our side of the globe for the first time since 2010. The medium range ensembles are now maintaining positive height anomalies on the west coast past 250 hours which will certainly help keep the cold air directly to our north given the high latitude blocking. Keep in mind that although the models may be dry/suppressed at the moment, these type of PV setups can often bring surprises and the model guidance will be unable to forecast the individual nuances rotating around the Polar Vortex. Maybe the snow will come via a clipper that redevelops while the PV is just to our north -- maybe it will come from a southern stream wave...or maybe it will come when the PV lifts out. But I would be shocked if we escaped this wintry pattern without at least some snow for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GGEM looks good for the 2nd wave for next week http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GFS is really cold with great blocking and a couple of storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GFS is really cold with great blocking and a couple of storm chances. shots at clippers, thats about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 shots at clippers, thats about it... Guess you're only looking at days 1-7? Days 8-10 look favorable for something if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 shots at clippers, thats about it... Just missed a big storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Guess you're only looking at days 1-7? Days 8-10 look favorable for something if you ask me yea, i am....i cant take gfs seriously beyond 180hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Id take some clippers. Seems like they are beconing rarer these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 00z CMC just managed to miss the phase for a strong storm system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 00z UKMET also had a low of the carolina coast for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z UKMET and JMA have the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm further north with the precip, with the .25 line running through Sussex County and just north of NYC and Long Island and the .5 line as far north as Trenton to Long Branch at 12z on Wednesday, with more to come after this. The UKMET has the 850 line at 7am on Wednesday cold enough for snow for Warren, Morris, Sussex, Passaic, and Bergen Counties. The storm is still centered over Northwestern NC at 12z on Wednesday on the UKMET, so more precip would be likely on the way. Interesting stuff. I am viewing this on the Wright-Weather site. It is actually not that different from the 12z run of the JMA which I have attached. The UKMET and JMA both appear to have NW NJ getting about 3-6 inches of snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Total precip on the JMA is very similar to what I imagine the UMKET would show. About .5-.75 for most of our area but precip only goes out to 72 hrs on the UKMET, so I am extrapolating but the images from the 12z JMA are nearly identical to what the 12z UKMET looks like. The 12z UMKET takes the low from NW North Carolina at 72 hrs to Nova Scotia at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 The ECMWF has two snow chances. One with a light and weak clipper at hour 180 that gives a narrow swath of 0.1-0.25" of precipitation in a six hour timeframe. The second system is from a much larger system. Looks like a clipper that redevelops off the coast. Very interesting solution. Bombs the clipper down to 971 mb into Maine at hour 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The ECMWF has two snow chances. One with a light and weak clipper at hour 180 that gives a narrow swath of 0.1-0.25" of precipitation in a six hour timeframe. The second system is from a much larger system. Looks like a clipper that redevelops off the coast. Very interesting solution. Bombs the clipper down to 971 mb into Maine at hour 216. It also just misses bringing a rather nice looking system next Friday up the coast. Actually shows NC getting hit pretty good. Maybe that one can turn up the coast? Looks really nice over Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 It also just misses bringing a rather nice looking system next Friday up the coast. Actually shows NC getting hit pretty good. Maybe that one can turn up the coast? Looks really nice over Georgia. The northern extent of the precipitation shield on StormVista got the precip to nearly southern Delaware. It's 00z run got it to southern Virginia, so there was a push north with the precipitation this model run compared to it's 00z counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 15z SREF's also appear to have come somewhat further north with the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Tues storm is probably going to be mainly rain for most except for the far n&w suburbs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 15z SREF's also appear to have come somewhat further north with the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm. It's a good bit N and W of the 9z SREFs. Here is Wave 2, which I think has a better chance at giving the area some snow. On the left is the 9z SREFs and the right is the 15z SREFs. You can see a noticeable tick north and west with the second wave. The first wave is also a bit N and W as well. Again, 9z SREFs on the left, 15z SREFs on the right for this picture above as well for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Tues storm is probably going to be mainly rain for most except for the far n&w suburbs.. not saying this will happen. Even though the thicknesses are rather high, their is a decent low level cold push on the models despite the high thicknesses which is represented by the 850 line. Below is a skew t of edison nj area and you can see the low level cold is pretty decent, screams sleet. Though, this sounding would be snow with some sleet to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 18z NAM is more enthused with the first wave than with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 18z NAM is more enthused with the first wave than with the second wave.Still outside of it's best range. I am curious how the 18z GFS handles the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z DGEX is further north with the Friday threat, bringing a significant snowstorm to Virginia and the DelMarva, but still keeping it south of New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z GFS just made a slight NW shift with the precip, getting possibly some light accumulations into NW NJ on Wednesday morning. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z GFS hits the southern Appalachians, Virginia and the DelMarva pretty good on Thursday night. It even sneaks some light precipitation into southern NJ on Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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