SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I guess that you can make the argument that we have more active hurricane seasons during -PDO or La Nina years which is a net minus for the winter unless we see super blocking like 2010-2011 to overpower the Pacific signal. That is likely what may be a factor there...there was a study done showing that alot of cities in the southern Plains eastward to Atlanta and parts of NC/SC see more snowy winters during the inactive 30 year phase of the Atlantic hurricane season than they do the active phase...a big reason for those snowier winters may be more El ninos which cause a stronger subtropical jet and less Atlanta hurricanes ..could be the same thing for us on the La Nina end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would think the only way to salvage this winter is with a strongly negative nao and then we would'nt have to worry about the pna. se What good is cold and dry, I would rather have it in the 70's if we're not going to get snow. Without the southern jet interacting , you will prob just end up cold and dry . dept from normals over the next 10 days will be below average . But the models are not bullish on any robust systems right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF holds steadyhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref/15/sref_namer_051_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Without the southern jet interacting , you will prob just end up cold and dry . dept from normals over the next 10 days will be below average . But the models are not bullish on any robust systems right now . Yes I agree and that is why an el nino would of made the difference as far as snowfall is concerned, particularly with bigger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Amazing how easy people are calling everything off just because the NAO isn't negative. Didn't some say how the pacific was overpowering the NAO, even when it was negative, well, why are we so concerned with the NAO now. Ensemble forecasts call for near to slightly positive NAO which isn't that bad. Things could still turn around, still decent chances over the next couple of weeks. and these cutters might become hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Amazing how easy people are calling everything off just because the NAO isn't negative. Didn't some say how the pacific was overpowering the NAO, even when it was negative, well, why are we so concerned with the NAO now. Ensemble forecasts call for near to slightly positive NAO which isn't that bad. Things could still turn around, still decent chances over the next couple of weeks. and these cutters might become hitters. If there was a NAO block, the storm exiting the Plains now would be much more likely to be major for us, since this causes the northern branch to buckle, and shortwaves to dive into the U.S., and catch these southern stream waves. With no block, the flow just stays progressive and if there is a major buckle, it's often too quick and the Midwest gets snow. It's not impossible to get a lot of snow with a neutral or +NAO, but it's a lot more difficult. Look at 12/26/10 as an example-that was doomed to be a fish storm without the blocking we had. It literally forced the two streams to phase. Same thing with Hurricane Sandy-the block made that all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nam is way south like the Euro for Friday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nam is way south like the Euro for Friday's event. DC and the folks down south get to share in our misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HPChttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013011700f048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DC and the folks down south get to share in our misery I think they have been sharing your misery all winter long, so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013011700f048.gif Ant, thats recent ? Cant be right man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ant, thats recent ? Cant be right man . YYes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ant, thats recent ? Cant be right man . Ant, thats recent ? Cant be right man . Ahh % forget , makes sense then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 YYes it is YYes it is Viewed it as QPF . I rarely look at those prob maps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow WHY in the world would they actually put winter storm watches up for southern and central NJ?! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow WHY in the world would they actually put winter storm watches up for southern and central NJ?! Wow Criteria is only 4" there, not the 6" of NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow WHY in the world would they actually put winter storm watches up for southern and central NJ?! Wow Criteria is only 4" there, not the 6" of NYC metro. Yeah but it's just very strange because it was based on a couple runs of some models that barely even pushed the 1" line into many of the areas under WSW, just to pull that 1" line out of the entire area in it's next run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah but it's just very strange because it was based on a couple runs of some models that barely even pushed the 1" line into many of the areas under WSW, just to pull that 1" line out of the entire area in it's next run lol You don't want people to be caught completely off guard if it were to come N, its only a watch and a watch is issued to inform people of a possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Amazing how easy people are calling everything off just because the NAO isn't negative. Didn't some say how the pacific was overpowering the NAO, even when it was negative, well, why are we so concerned with the NAO now. Ensemble forecasts call for near to slightly positive NAO which isn't that bad. Things could still turn around, still decent chances over the next couple of weeks. and these cutters might become hitters. Personally, I don't think we need a -NAO block with the huge Pacific ridge. If you had a double block, it would probably be just cold and dry with such a deep trough over the East. Having the NAO positive isn't bad in this because the positive value is mostly because of a huge PV to the north, locking in cold air. If the NAO were more negative, that PV would drop even further south, making a colder but very suppressed pattern. We could see a large snowstorm around Day 10 as the PV starts to retreat to northern Canada. HM has also been talking about a -NAO in February when the stratospheric warming begins to re-develop over Greenland. That could leave a nice west-based block for the snowiest part of the season after this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah but it's just very strange because it was based on a couple runs of some models that barely even pushed the 1" line into many of the areas under WSW, just to pull that 1" line out of the entire area in it's next run lol You don't want people to be caught completely off guard if it were to come N, its only a watch and a watch is issued to inform people of a possible event. So if a hurricane is barreling towards our area they'd issue a hurricane watch, right ? lol I'm kidding I know there were other factors in play with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS doesn't have the storm once again. It was just eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS doesn't have the storm once again. It was just eye candy. I guess nothing interesting on the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those who want something to hang their hates on for early Friday still take a look at 12/12/82...the #2 current analog on CIPS...there are some major similarities to the current event...the charts do not look anything like a major snowfall but over 4 inches fell at JFK, 3 at ISP with 7 inches at PHL http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us1212.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I guess nothing interesting on the run? The re-developing miller b is still lurking but too far offshore....the clipper behind it at 160-170 hours also needs to be watched though it gets sheared out right now. There is likely going to be some sort of storm around Day 9-10 but right now its impossible to know what it will do...the GFS/Euro both want to cut it inland, the Euro is basically nothing more than a low cutting way north with a 1 day warmup and another arctic unload behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I like the look of the fri. wave. Those are the types of events that give eastern suffolk a nice little shot. (potentially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man 18z GFS was a cold run. Days of 850s in the -16 to -18C range next week, and then another nasty cold shot after a low tracks north at Day 10. Should see threats popping out of the woodwork with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I like the look of the fri. wave. Those are the types of events that give eastern suffolk a nice little shot. (potentially) Yeah, I definitely would rather be out by you come Friday morning. (2-4" wouldn't be that hard to pull off) Just have to hope the NAM/euro come back closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z didn't budge east from the 12z run with Friday's event. 0.14" total for Friday's event at KISP from 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those who want something to hang their hates on for early Friday still take a look at 12/12/82...the #2 current analog on CIPS...there are some major similarities to the current event...the charts do not look anything like a major snowfall but over 4 inches fell at JFK, 3 at ISP with 7 inches at PHL http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us1212.php The second best storm of the 1982-83 winter was on December 11th-12th. Fall 1982 was exceptionally mild...with some low 70's showing up in the area even during early December. A sharp cold front put an end to that and on 11 December cyclogenesis took place in the Southeast...with a well defined Low eventually moving east of Hatteras. Some heavy snows developed in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia...soon after D.C. was in on it. Snow developed in the NYC / L.I. area around 5z on the 12th, and it continued to snow through much of the morning. Around 3" accumulated in NYC, 4" to 6" in Nassau County...and up to 8" out in Suffolk. No question about the form of precip as temperatures hovered in the low to mid twenties during the morning of the 12th (a Sunday). Out on Cape Cod a full fleged blizzard took place, with howling NE winds and up to 14" of snow. The storm is best remembered as being the central figure in the infamous "Snowplow" game between the Patriots and the Dolphins up at Foxboro. While the blizzard was howling, a snowplow was allowed on the football field to clear the area for the New England kicker to boot through the game winning field goal. Shula fumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Every single ensemble run today has produced a storm in this location on one ensemble member, and it was a different member each run. On the 18z run it was member P004, at 12z it was member P003, and at 6z it was member P002. They all have the low of similar time, strength, and placement. Clearly the potential is there, has been and still is. Who knows if it will ever come to fruition however. The last two frames are from the latest 18z run that just came out with P004 producing a nice storm for us next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.