Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

[Dsnowx53]

The downstream side of the PNA ridge is not nearly meridional enough and the flow in the NW Atlantic is too broad and progressive to really allow anything to deepen at this point. Hopefully something changes. (For the Jan 22 "threat")

[MJO812]

RGEM has light snow up towards NYC for this Friday

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[PB GFI]

RGEM has light snow up towards NYC for this Friday

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Winter storm watches up Central NJ , ocean county on south .

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Same story as last February the next few days with the northern branch too strong.

This is where a Nino and strong STJ would have really come in handy.

 

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Well, it's okay. As long as the Southern MD-ATL is having show, it's good.

[Allsnow]

Euro crushes dt and central nc

[Allsnow]

Gives us some light snow showers

[MJO812]

Euro is further southeast than all the other models.

[supermeh]

12z GGEM still crushes us next Tuesday. Classic major storm. Same as 00z.

i don't see that. I see partly cloudy skies on the GGEM

[MJO812]

12z GGEM still crushes us next Tuesday. Classic major storm. Same as 00z.

 

Dry

[MJO812]

Well, it's okay. As long as the Southern MD-ATL is having show, it's good.

 

No it's not. We can't buy a snowstorm up here.

[famartin]

GGEM major fail.

[IsentropicLift]

My bad, for some reason my page didn't change. I was looking at the 00z run even though I clicked on 12z.

[SnowGoose69]

The trough axis looks way too broad for anything to come sharply up the coast where the GFS/GEM were showing a storm...the event the Euro had at day 9-10 that the Op GFS had this morning as well makes alot more sense, unfortunately thats probably going to be a rain storm if it happened as shown although there'd be a shot of some sort of snow in the beginning because there would be a cold airmass in place before.

[NorEaster27]

No it's not. We can't buy a snowstorm up here.

we had one in november I had 6 inches of snow

[MJO812]

we had one in november I had 6 inches of snow

 

I had 4 inches from that storm. Seems like snowstorms before winter are the new thing in our area.

[NorEaster27]

The trough axis looks way too broad for anything to come sharply up the coast where the GFS/GEM were showing a storm...the event the Euro had at day 9-10 that the Op GFS had this morning as well makes alot more sense, unfortunately thats probably going to be a rain storm if it happened as shown although there'd be a shot of some sort of snow in the beginning because there would be a cold airmass in place before.

With the PNA breaking down by the end of the week, we are going to be looking at storms that may cut too close to give us any snow despite having a cold airmass prior.

[MJO812]

JMA

 

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif

[bluewave]

The trough axis looks way too broad for anything to come sharply up the coast where the GFS/GEM were showing a storm...the event the Euro had at day 9-10 that the Op GFS had this morning as well makes alot more sense, unfortunately thats probably going to be a rain storm if it happened as shown although there'd be a shot of some sort of snow in the beginning because there would be a cold airmass in place before.

 

Yesterday's 12z Euro had a stronger PNA day 8-10 than the 0Z did. This allowed the pacific jet to break through 0z  and

give a little more of a SE Ridge for the storm to be warmer.

[SnowGoose69]

Yesterday's 12z Euro had a stronger PNA day 8-10 than the 0Z did. This allowed the pacific jet to break through0z  and

give a little more of a SE Ridge for the storm to be warmer.

 

The NAO is just killing us, the lack of any west based block is opening the door for anything that gets too amped over the Midwest or Plains to cut west...exactly why even 93-94 had a ton of cutting events, the EPO/AO were good but the +NAO which was actually very positive killed us on several storms.

[Chrisjmcjr]

I had 4 inches from that storm. Seems like snowstorms before winter are the new thing in our area.

I don't have any source to back this up but i am going by what has happened the last two years seems like when we get a tropical storm or hurricane , like with irene and sandy look at the winters we have had afterwards. We had irene and the holloween snow, warm winter no snow. Sandy a week later a snowstorm and as of yet pretty mild winter so far with no snow storms, we shall see how the rest of the winter pans out

[NorEaster27]

The NAO is just killing us, the lack of any west based block is opening the door for anything that gets too amped over the Midwest or Plains to cut west...exactly why even 93-94 had a ton of cutting events, the EPO/AO were good but the +NAO which was actually very positive killed us on several storms.

its a good pattern for the upstate but I dont see any big storms without real blocking to slow the flow down. I have hammered the lack of an real -NAO for the past month, a -EPO is great but we dont do well with a +NAO and -PNA. Maybe its better for New England but not us.

[jm1220]

I don't have any source to back this up but i am going by what has happened the last two years seems like when we get a tropical storm or hurricane , like with irene and sandy look at the winters we have had afterwards. We had irene and the holloween snow, warm winter no snow. Sandy a week later a snowstorm and as of yet pretty mild winter so far with no snow storms, we shall see how the rest of the winter pans out

Taking this back, Floyd hit in 1999 and the following winter was generally poor (exception 1/25/00). 85-86 was subpar as well snow-wise after Hurricane Gloria. 91-92 was poor after Hurricane Bob. One major exception is 60-61 after Donna.

[MJO812]

I don't have any source to back this up but i am going by what has happened the last two years seems like when we get a tropical storm or hurricane , like with irene and sandy look at the winters we have had afterwards. We had irene and the holloween snow, warm winter no snow. Sandy a week later a snowstorm and as of yet pretty mild winter so far with no snow storms, we shall see how the rest of the winter pans out

 

 

I have noticed that also.

[Dsnowx53]

I don't have any source to back this up but i am going by what has happened the last two years seems like when we get a tropical storm or hurricane , like with irene and sandy look at the winters we have had afterwards. We had irene and the holloween snow, warm winter no snow. Sandy a week later a snowstorm and as of yet pretty mild winter so far with no snow storms, we shall see how the rest of the winter pans out

 

 

I don't really think there is enough of a sample size to say this, nor can I figure out anything that would actually lead to a causation rather than simply a correlation. 

[bluewave]

The NAO is just killing us, the lack of any west based block is opening the door for anything that gets too amped over the Midwest or Plains to cut west...exactly why even 93-94 had a ton of cutting events, the EPO/AO were good but the +NAO which was actually very positive killed us on several storms.

 

The tremendous amount of Arctic air and the block over the pole in 1994 really made up for any lack of NAO help. 

[jm1220]

its a good pattern for the upstate but I dont see any big storms without real blocking to slow the flow down. I have hammered the lack of an real -NAO for the past month, a -EPO is great but we dont do well with a +NAO and -PNA. Maybe its better for New England but not us.

I'm not excited unless the NAO block builds back in like runs a few days ago had. Purely PNA based cold will likely just be dry other than a lucky clipper, but major storms will have no problem cutting. It looks to get quite cold but it seems like a boring pattern from a snow standpoint. Honestly I'm not a fan of cold and dry.

[bluewave]

I don't have any source to back this up but i am going by what has happened the last two years seems like when we get a tropical storm or hurricane , like with irene and sandy look at the winters we have had afterwards. We had irene and the holloween snow, warm winter no snow. Sandy a week later a snowstorm and as of yet pretty mild winter so far with no snow storms, we shall see how the rest of the winter pans out

 

I guess that you can make the argument that we have more active hurricane seasons during -PDO or La Nina years

which is a net minus for the winter unless we see super blocking like 2010-2011 to overpower the Pacific signal.

[easternsnowman]

I would think the only way to salvage this winter is with a strongly negative nao and then we would'nt have to worry about the pna. se What good is cold and dry, I would rather have it in the 70's if we're not going to get snow.