IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ggem nails us. Really starting to think we should watch this with extreme vigilance. Could seriously mean business for SNE/Northern MD-ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ggem nails us. When? ~150 hrs? (can't see at work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 When? ~150 hrs? (can't see at work) Yeah I saw 500mb map on my phone looks like 980s tucked into Long Island .. I'm shocked at the lack of talk about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah I saw 500mb map on my phone looks like 980s tucked into Long Island .. I'm shocked at the lack of talk about it would love to see some precip maps. From the looks of it I'd imagine its a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GGEM is very nice! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 would love to see some precip maps. From the looks of it I'd imagine its a lot of snow. NYC get's .8" of liquid. With at least 15:1 ratios, probably 10-15" of snow. Otherwise, I think should wait for further details in the next 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM says take a road trip to Raleigh Durham if you want snow. (although hope for eastern suffolk, this is for friday AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM says take a road trip to Raleigh Durham if you want snow. (although hope for eastern suffolk, this is for friday AM) GFS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs gets light snow back to city on 06z for Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS is pretty close to a moderate snowfall event for the immediate coast. However, I'm not sure the GFS has the resolution to resolve such a sharp cutoff in this type of setup. I urge extreme caution, as the GFS might just be too gradual with its cutoff, and a sharper, less broad cutoff like the NAM might make more sense here. Definitely keeping my eye on this one, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS is pretty close to a moderate snowfall event for the immediate coast. However, I'm not sure the GFS has the resolution to resolve such a sharp cutoff in this type of setup. I urge extreme caution, as the GFS might just be too gradual with its cutoff, and a sharper, less broad cutoff like the NAM might make more sense here. Definitely keeping my eye on this one, though. Yeah, NAM has ticked NW as well precip cutoff is extreme. AC roadtrip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 The 3z SREF took another jump North and West. Gets the 0.1" NW of the city. Pretty remarkable differences from the 21z SREF. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/03zsrefp24_NE057.gif 3z SREF total previous 24 hour accumulated precipitation above at hour 57. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/21zsrefp24_NE063.gif 21z SREF total previous 24 hour accumulatated precipitation above at hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS and NAM showing a light snowfall for Friday..Upton forecast is Sunny lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Another trend north by the SREFhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref/09/sref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Another trend north by the SREF http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref/09/sref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif .50 inch into AC..25 into Asbury . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Another trend north by the SREF http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref/09/sref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif A little too late for us for anymore trends. Should be a good storm for our DC friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A little too late for us for anymore trends. Should be a good storm for our DC friends. For anything major yes, but this last storm trended north and west until it started. I expect the same with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Have had to delete a lot of posts this morning. This is the discussion thread. Let's keep it that way. The other thread is for banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We need more interaction with the northern stream, or this threat is cooked north of southern NJ. You can see how the attempt at a low gets sheared right out as the northern stream won't allow amplification. It might be okay for those on the northern edge where it's cold enough for snow, but otherwise a "Next..." system for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We need more interaction with the northern stream, or this threat is cooked north of southern NJ. You can see how the attempt at a low gets sheared right out as the northern stream won't allow amplification. It might be okay for those on the northern edge where it's cold enough for snow, but otherwise a "Next..." system for most of us. Agreed. There just isnt any more room really. Can the models really miss that this close? That would be a pretty epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah, there is too much fast flow with the northern stream, and the height field is too broad to the north. There is very little room for amplification. I can certainly see the immediate coastal areas getting a coating or so, but for the most part, looking at the radar will be painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We need more interaction with the northern stream, or this threat is cooked north of southern NJ. You can see how the attempt at a low gets sheared right out as the northern stream won't allow amplification. It might be okay for those on the northern edge where it's cold enough for snow, but otherwise a "Next..." system for most of us. Or for the PV to push just far enough north to allow for the closed H5 low to come just 50 miles NW of the NAM's position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Or for the PV to push just far enough north to allow for the closed H5 low to come just 50 miles NW of the NAM's position. There might be a slight possibility of something along those lines. But there's still a huge brick wall. The height lines out ahead of the closed H5 low don't even coincide with the height pattern with the PV, at all. Any phasing opportunity is pretty much dead. So inching the PV north might be able to give the area some flakes. The GFS may tease us with its annoyingly broad cutoffs and show the .25" contour right along the South Shore of LI or something. I urge caution since that's a clear lack of resolution bias with the GFS. It did the same thing with 2/6/10. Edit: Meant to say 2/6/10, not 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There might be a slight possibility of something along those lines. But there's still a huge brick wall. The height lines out ahead of the closed H5 low don't even coincide with the height pattern with the PV, at all. Any phasing opportunity is pretty much dead. So inching the PV north might be able to give the area some flakes. The GFS may tease us with its annoyingly broad cutoffs and show the .25" contour right along the South Shore of LI or something. I urge caution since that's a clear lack of resolution bias with the GFS. It did the same thing with 2/10/10. I don't think there will be any real phasing either. It's basically a race between the deepening PV and the H5 low, to the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hello all i am new to the tread. I look foward to learning from everyone here and getting a beter understanding about the weather, and how to read model outputs. Which storm are we disscussing? As there is no date in the tread title. Also i noticed some of the guys talking about a storm potential for next weekend 23-24. How does that look as of now? i know the models this year show a nice storm ten days out to lose it. but was curious to know what they are show for the 23-24 and is the setup favorable for a storm? again thanks in advance and i look forward to learning from you all . Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There might be a slight possibility of something along those lines. But there's still a huge brick wall. The height lines out ahead of the closed H5 low don't even coincide with the height pattern with the PV, at all. Any phasing opportunity is pretty much dead. So inching the PV north might be able to give the area some flakes. The GFS may tease us with its annoyingly broad cutoffs and show the .25" contour right along the South Shore of LI or something. I urge caution since that's a clear lack of resolution bias with the GFS. It did the same thing with 2/6/10. Edit: Meant to say 2/6/10, not 2/10/10. Yes. But it wouldn't take much to give LI and up to NYC a 1"-3" event. Latest srefs did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hello all i am new to the tread. I look foward to learning from everyone here and getting a beter understanding about the weather, and how to read model outputs. Which storm are we disscussing? As there is no date in the tread title. Also i noticed some of the guys talking about a storm potential for next weekend 23-24. How does that look as of now? i know the models this year show a nice storm ten days out to lose it. but was curious to know what they are show for the 23-24 and is the setup favorable for a storm? again thanks in advance and i look forward to learning from you all . Chris Welcome aboard! You will find great information here. I have been on weather boards since December 2000 and I can tell you that I have learned more on weather boards than I could taking Meteorology classes at top universities and I did take one at Rutgers back in the day. Here is a thread on the main board that may help inform you about the upcoming snow chances. Note HM's posts in the thread as he is very knowledgeable and gives this board an incredible resource when he comes out of hiding every now and then: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-15#entry2003914 Here's a way to search threads where HM is an author of a post: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=search§ion=search&do=search&fromsearch=1 There are many other folks here besides HM who also are very knowledgeable so browse around and read what all the great resources we have here have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 How's the GFS?Any shot for a maybe 1-3" event for NYC and CT south coast? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just when I mention that no phasing is possibly (which I still don't really think is), the 12z GFS comes a bit closer to a phase than the 6z GFS if you look at 500mb. The base of the PV trough actually digs a bit further south and is a tad less broad and makes an attempt to phase with the slightly further north vortmax from the south. I still think we're out of time and the pattern remains quite hostile, but this might be a positive trend as far as a very minor event/seeing flakes is concerned. 12z: 6z valid for the same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You might make the argument and say, "hey wait, if there are positive trends aloft, why is my QPF still about the same?" But if you notice, because of what I said earlier, the storm actually is able to turn the corner a tad, and E SNE actually has a decent boost in QPF this run, and the precipitation is aligned in a bit more of a north to south fashion rather than a west to east fashion. If the storm can just have the room to turn the corner somewhat, then a minor event is not out of the question. 12z: 6z valid for the same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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