Kaner587 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It may not matter very much (who knows though) but at 6pm the park is 37/23. Not too shabby ESP after forecasted high of 44 by nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z Nogaps has light precip along the coast for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It may not matter very much (who knows though) but at 6pm the park is 37/23. Not too shabby ESP after forecasted high of 44 by nws All of these 23/24s at NYC LGA and JFK are strange I'm at 28 in between them. pretty large difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It may not matter very much (who knows though) but at 6pm the park is 37/23. Not too shabby ESP after forecasted high of 44 by nws I'll wait to see the 00Z RAOB from OKC but the surface temps and dewpoints concern me a bit right now as I felt last night looking at the MOS all showing 35/26 or 37/27 near the coast, this was not an event with boundary layer problems as much as mid-level issues, if evaporate down to 32 or below on an initial shot of snow it won't be easy to recover with a NE surface wind. There is huge bust potential right now on this at the coast, we're not gonna get 5 inches of snow but we could see an inch and then struggle with sleet or fzra the rest of the event, especially Queens/Bronx/N Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The JFK sounding looks like sleet transitioning to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if northern Nassau Bronx northern queens and northern manhattan get some accums whether it be from snow alone or snow and sleet or just plain sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 25 dew point IMB about 10 miles west of JFK All of these 23/24s at NYC LGA and JFK are strange I'm at 28 in between them. pretty large difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If mid-levels weren't already pretty moist I'd be more impressed with the threat of snow in this system in the city... however the low level cold and dry air mass suggests that sleet could last a while. Freezing rain if it gets down to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 All of these 23/24s at NYC LGA and JFK are strange I'm at 28 in between them. pretty large difference. Davis? I know one of mine tends to run too moist. ASOS is usually pretty reliable with dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 40/29 I'm toast only expecting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 40/29 I'm toast only expecting rain sandy out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 sandy out to sea If only we were so lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't believe there isn't a little more excitement in the air over the potential Miller B threat as early at 160 hours. Almost every model shows a vigirous northern stream shortwave coming around the PV and digging into the M/A. There's also a potential bigger storm looming just 3-4 days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't believe there isn't a little more excitement in the air over the potential Miller B threat as early at 160 hours. Almost every model shows a vigirous northern stream shortwave coming around the PV and digging into the M/A. There's also a potential bigger storm looming just 3-4 days after that. Getting that vort to dig south into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys is key and great to see because that is a very favorable track and would support explosion off the coast with a negative tilt Also of course we have tremendous cold air available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't believe there isn't a little more excitement in the air over the potential Miller B threat as early at 160 hours. Almost every model shows a vigirous northern stream shortwave coming around the PV and digging into the M/A. There's also a potential bigger storm looming just 3-4 days after that. The individual gefs are even more exciting then the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Does anyone here believe the possible storm for the 22nd. followed by multiple sub-zero days @NYC as depicted in the 18Z GFS? Can you give logical reasoning either way. Thanks. Maybe the programmers have changed the physics package for this run w/o telling us! Model on steroids or hallucinogenics? Since the cold pattern has taken 30 days to evolve maybe this is real. Looks a little like Jan. 19-Feb. 04 1961 but that Dec. was cold with a major out of season storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't believe there isn't a little more excitement in the air over the potential Miller B threat as early at 160 hours. Almost every model shows a vigirous northern stream shortwave coming around the PV and digging into the M/A. There's also a potential bigger storm looming just 3-4 days after that. Earthlight, I am with you on this. The potential is there in a big way for next Tuesday, then again on Friday. Both have massive potential. The Euro Control run was a real winner yesterday morning, the Canadian this afternoon, now the GFS this evening. High ratio potential as well. I really like the run earlier today where there was clearly an indication of what appeared to be a Norlun Trough going toward our area with a maximum of precip right over us. I have seen this many times before where the Norlun does not develop, but what actually happens is that this sort of depiction ends up being the actual location of low pressure near the coast. I can see this storm tucking right into the coast near us. We just need the shortwave to dig a a bit further south. Let's all cross our fingers. Huge potential next Tuesday, and Friday as well. The Euro control run this evening is a little more amped with the Tuesday storm for us than the operational run and it also shows a rather massive storm for us next Friday into Saturday. Loads of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't believe there isn't a little more excitement in the air over the potential Miller B threat as early at 160 hours. Almost every model shows a vigirous northern stream shortwave coming around the PV and digging into the M/A. There's also a potential bigger storm looming just 3-4 days after that. I'm real excited. But was told HM thoughts where not promising and the euro at 12z is not a ku pattern Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z GFS looks great. Colder and more storm chances. Storm chances on 1/22 and 1/25-1/26. 16-day plot shows KISP down to -6°F on 1/27. Any snow we get even if it's only an inch will definitely stay on the ground for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't believe there isn't a little more excitement in the air over the potential Miller B threat as early at 160 hours. Almost every model shows a vigirous northern stream shortwave coming around the PV and digging into the M/A. There's also a potential bigger storm looming just 3-4 days after that. The Euro is showing a clipper riding fairly far to the north with the transfer to the coast too far east for us. But if the Euro shifts a little further south, we could see a 1-3...2-4 for some lucky spots. But these clipper transfers can leave us high and dry if the timing and location is wrong. I would like to see what the models serve up once the lead wave a few days earlier moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z DGEX showing single digits behind this clipper, next Wed am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's a little exciting but nothing to get too excited about just yet. First of all anything past Day 5 is very sketchy and we're still in a 11-12 winter hangover. The Dec 29 storm was also a huge disappointment and that changed within 2-3 days of the event but for the first time this winter, we actually have cold air masses to work with and that immediately should bring some optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The Euro is showing a clipper riding fairly far to the north with the transfer to the coast too far east for us. But if the Euro shifts a little further south, we could see a 1-3...2-4 for some lucky spots. But these clipper transfers can leave us high and dry if the timing and location is wrong. I would like to see what the models serve up once the lead wave a few days earlier moves through. I think if the ridge out west is as amplified as the models are showing, we have to watch for earlier development off the coast and potential higher amounts with a strong low pressure forming offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The PNA will be spiking Jan 20-27 to levels unseen in this winter dominated by -PNA thus far. Given the -EPO/-AO already in place, the arctic air source will be there, the mechanism for delivery will also be present, and thus we've got more checks on the bucket list than we've seen so far in winter 2012-13. The PV will also be displaced fairly far south in Canada due to the height rise over the Arctic/Greenland D 5-8, so at this time I believe the ECMWF is too far north with the short wave track. It's too early to talk specifics on snowfall numbers or track, but what I can say with a good deal of certainty is the synoptics are some of the most conducive we've seen since 2 winters ago. Whether or not that results in a snowstorm is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here are the individual ensemble runs at 6z on Tuesday from this morning at 6z, then 12z, then 18z. You can see as we get closer in time, albeit only 6 hours each run, but anyway, on the 6z run this morning the depiction is of a Norlun trough pulling in our direction, then at 12z you start to see it developing low pressure areas in that general area, now on this run they are getting really serious. I think this trend will continue until we see something possibly quite interesting right off the NJ coast. Of course I am kind of hoping and crossing my fingers also, but honestly I believe the potential is there. And yes, it is highly interesting that both the GFS and the Euro Control model show big potential late next week at nearly the same time. Good times ahead, starting tonight for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This clipper has a Manitoba Mauler type of look. I'd still like to see a little more north to south orientation on the downstream side of the PNA ridge, but it's still a potent PNA ridge that yields solid potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The Euro is showing a clipper riding fairly far to the north with the transfer to the coast too far east for us. But if the Euro shifts a little further south, we could see a 1-3...2-4 for some lucky spots. But these clipper transfers can leave us high and dry if the timing and location is wrong. I would like to see what the models serve up once the lead wave a few days earlier moves through. With a shortwave digging that far south on the gfs we won't be getting a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS verbatim is 0.85 for mby in South Jersey. Definite potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The one after the Miller B, which is the one everyone should get into the fun has a heck of a Kocin look with the 500 mb trough going and digging on a positive/neutral tilt in KY, AL, GA then goes on a negative tilt from there on.... *assuming it would* very much like the Jan '96 blizzard evolution with that. Pure polar jet. ECMWF shows this very clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That's an incredible pacific pattern advertised on the models. Hopefully we can get some -NAO blocking in tandem with the monster +PNA ridge. Finally a pattern we have been waiting for..and it's only January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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