Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

[IsentropicLift]

Canadian looks real good for next weeks clipper. Clipper into miller b

[SnoSki14]

Canadian looks real good for next weeks clipper. Clipper into miller b

 

Once we get sustained cold in place, it's a lot easier to get minor to moderate events and even a bigger event as well. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

and thats a really cold miller b. huge fluff factor...

[Snow_Miser]

Wow, if the NAM and even the GFS verify around NW NJ from Somerset County N and W, we could be dealing with a pretty significant ice event.

[Snow_Miser]

From HPC

 

 

 

>.10" Freezing rain

 

The probabilities for ice really start ramping up once you get to Somerset County N and W. Should be interesting to see what happens tonight into tomorrow.

[Snow_Miser]

Mount Holly for counties just south of the WWA issued counties:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1056 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

NJZ009-010-PAZ101-103-105-161600-

HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-

1056 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW

JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH

OF INTERSTATE 78 IN HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES OF NEW JERSEY

AND UPPER BUCKS COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY ICE UP ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE EXPANDED INTO MOST OF

THIS DEFINED AREA IN OUR 330 PM UPDATE.

[Snow_Miser]

How does the 12z ECM look for next week's Miller B potential? It was hinting at this storm over the last two days or so.

[Allsnow]

How does the 12z ECM look for next week's Miller B potential? It was hinting at this storm over the last two days or so.

Only out to 150. Further north with clipper

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS bufkit isn't good. Has plain rain even for KMMU and a short duration storm.

 

130116/0600Z  18  05005KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|100
130116/0900Z  21  06006KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.203    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25    0|  0|100
130116/1200Z  24  05006KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1500Z  27  07005KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  VRB01KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  24006KT  37.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48    0|  0|100
 

Even has mostly rain for KSWF

 

130116/0600Z  18  06003KT  31.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   14:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130116/0900Z  21  09003KT  29.9F  SNOW   12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127   12:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
130116/1200Z  24  VRB02KT  29.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073   11:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1500Z  27  09003KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.044   11:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.26    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  VRB02KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055   11:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.31    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  22004KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   11:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.33    0|  0|100
 

[Snow_Miser]

This is one nasty precipitation type forecast from the NAM.

[Allsnow]

Euro brings clipper over buffalo. Transfers to give sne a snowfall. We get nada, this is something we don't want to happen.

[Kaner587]

Euro brings clipper over buffalo. Transfers to give sne a snowfall. We get nada, this is something we don't want to happen.

its very frustrating to see storm chances in the mid to long range only to have poor tracks as we get closer to the event. The silver lining to all of this is that the PV just sits over central canada rotating around and around send lobes of energy down the ridge off the west coast. This means reinforcing shots of colder air and clipper "potential." Based on this it seems likely at some point (unless we continue to be incredibly unlucky, which wouldn't surprise me) that energy dives far enough south to give us a minor to moderate event, maybe 2-3 of these based on the amount of times energy dives down. I agree with bluewave and others that it is after this period where a bigger storm threat exists, especially with some southern stream involvement which over the next 10 days appears to be mostly absent. I'd say the best we could hope for is a vigorous clipper miller B scenario.

[Edge Weather]

Euro temperature profile still looks nearly identical to the NAM, worlds apart from the GFS.  Euro and NAM are the way to go here.

[Snow_Miser]

The 12z ECMWF has 0.4" of precipitation while surface temperatures are below freezing and 850 mb temperatures are above freezing at KSMQ.

Nasty ice situation if that were to verify.

[Kaner587]

I feel a constant need to rationalize so here it goes...right now all of the major modeling suggests winter is here to stay probably for the forseeable future, maybe as long as 3 weeks before we get a breakdown and hopefully one final reload of the pattern before spring arrives. Even if its in the low to mid 30's and chances of small events (ie normal winter weather) I'm glad to have it. I cannot stand seeing rain and 40 degrees during winter, and even worse is warm weather. At this point I will be happy if its just cold. I know our snow chances will come though, hopefully sooner rather than later.

[Allsnow]

its very frustrating to see storm chances in the mid to long range only to have poor tracks as we get closer to the event. The silver lining to all of this is that the PV just sits over central canada rotating around and around send lobes of energy down the ridge off the west coast. This means reinforcing shots of colder air and clipper "potential." Based on this it seems likely at some point (unless we continue to be incredibly unlucky, which wouldn't surprise me) that energy dives far enough south to give us a minor to moderate event, maybe 2-3 of these based on the amount of times energy dives down. I agree with bluewave and others that it is after this period where a bigger storm threat exists, especially with some southern stream involvement which over the next 10 days appears to be mostly absent. I'd say the best we could hope for is a vigorous clipper miller B scenario.

It's safe to say we are going into the most active period this winter for snow lovers. After the last 10 days I will not complain. Looks like we have clipper/miller b threat next week and perhaps something bigger later on. Between now and then we are going to experience our coldest air in two years. Now these threats may or may not work out, but I feel a hell a lot better standing here today then last week this time

[Kaner587]

Pattern on 12z euro looks beautiful into the long range. Energy diving into BC beginning around 168 eventually dives down into the central US as the trough is roughly neutral going negatively tilted at 240. This is our big storm threat. 

[Allsnow]

Fwiw 240 euro is a incoming ku

[Kaner587]

It's safe to say we are going into the most active period this winter for snow lovers. After the last 10 days I will not complain. Looks like we have clipper/miller b threat next week and perhaps something bigger later on. Between now and then we are going to experience our coldest air in two years. Now these threats may or may not work out, but I feel a hell a lot better standing here today then last week this time

exactly. And as someone brought up a couple days ago, our best snows usually come in the middle of the cold pattern, and that is what I expect in this case.

[Kaner587]

Fwiw 240 euro is a incoming ku

yup... that energy drives into BC around 168-174 which is around next tuesday. So while the storm threat would be 10-11 days away the players are on the field in about a weeks time.

[Allsnow]

yup... that energy drives into BC around 168-174 which is around next tuesday. So while the storm threat would be 10-11 days away the players are on the field in about a weeks time.

Yep. Come Friday night we should have the midnight crew back

[Kaner587]

Yep. Come Friday night we should have the midnight crew back

the funny thing is that all it would take to have everybody back on board is a moderate event for all locales in the metro area. Then we'll have cold with a snowpack and everyones happy

[bluewave]

Fwiw 240 euro is a incoming ku

 

It will be interesting to see the 240 hr run tomorrow at this time. The PV lifts just enough

to let a nice piece of energy cut underneath.

 

[Kaner587]

It will be interesting to see the 240 hr run tomorrow at this time. The PV lifts just enough

to let a nice piece of energy cut underneath.

 

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

should allow for a track that is very snowy for us, at least as depicted by the euro. 

[IsentropicLift]

Fwiw 240 euro is a incoming ku

Ummm that's rather bullish don't you think? Sure, the long range GFS has hinted at big storm potential in the 10-14 day range but at hr 240 the system is only beginning to get organized over the TN Valley. Hardly a KU signal at this time frame.

 

[Kaner587]

Ummm that's rather bullish don't you think? Sure, the long range GFS has hinted at big storm potential in the 10-14 day range but at hr 240 the system is only beginning to get organized over the TN Valley. Hardly a KU signal at this time frame.

 

check over in the SNE forum. This is definitely a classic KU setup. And as depicted by the euro could very well be a major storm. To the other point you made no one is saying this will happen. Just doing model analysis. This is obviously 10+ days away so there will likely be changes but as is today depicted on the 240 hr euro, its a KU setup.

 

West coast ridge? check

Energy diving into central US? check

cold air/high pressure? check

50/50 low? check

[Allsnow]

Ummm that's rather bullish don't you think? Sure, the long range GFS has hinted at big storm potential in the 10-14 day range but at hr 240 the system is only beginning to get organized over the TN Valley. Hardly a KU signal at this time frame.

Per 12z euro op it has incredible big dog potential. I stated fwiw, it could be gone at 00z. Pv to the north, trough going neg, amp up wave. A lot of potential there verbatim

[Allsnow]

check over in the SNE forum. This is definitely a classic KU setup. And as depicted by the euro could very well be a major storm. To the other point you made no one is saying this will happen. Just doing model analysis. This is obviously 10+ days away so there will likely be changes but as is today depicted on the 240 hr euro, its a KU setup.

West coast ridge? check

Energy diving into central US? check

cold air/high pressure? check

50/50 low? check

Orhwx said in the sne forum it screams ku potential. Obv is could be gone at 00z

[Kaner587]

Orhwx said in the sne forum it screams ku potential. Obv is could be gone at 00z

ya of course. It goes without saying that when analyzing models, even in the mid range things can and do change from run to run.

[bluewave]

should allow for a track that is very snowy for us, at least as depicted by the euro. 

 

That would be a good track for snow here should the piece of energy verify.