Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

[MJO812]

RGEM is mostly rain for NYC with some icy precipitation mixed in. Snow for inland areas.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Snow_Miser]

RGEM is mostly rain for NYC with some icy precipitation mixed in. Snow for inland areas.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Wow, that's a lot of ice over by me on the RGEM. Hopefully that doesn't verify. Roads could be really really slick.

[Snow_Miser]

Around what time is this system expected to move into the area? I would be expecting tonight, though it seems like the precipitation keeps on getting delayed on the forecast guidance.

[Snow_Miser]

I wouldn't be surprised if more sleet falls if a GFS solution were to verify. While the 850 mb temepratures have cooled somewhat from yesterday, they are still fairly warm for the area overall.

However, the 925 mb temperatures are quite a bit colder.

With surface temperatures progged to be in the mid 30s on the GFS, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good bit of sleet fall from this system if a GFS solution were to verify.

[IsentropicLift]

RGEM is mostly rain for NYC with some icy precipitation mixed in. Snow for inland areas.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

That would be an extended period of freezing rain for a lot of folks in the I-95 area. Not good. Also seems to delay the onset of precip quite a bit.

[dbc]

That would be an extended period of freezing rain for a lot of folks in the I-95 area. Not good. Also seems to delay the onset of precip quite a bit.

 

Like I said yesterday, if we accrete the amount of ice the RGEM has been showing the last couple of runs I'll eat a pile of dirt. It will not happen in my area and certainly not anywhere in Manhattan. Have not seen a significant ice storm in this area since the 1993-94 winter. That streak will continue with this storm. Areas north and west, perhaps it may be a different story. Ray's winter storm site shows what type of setup we need for a significant ice storm in this area. This is not what we will be seeing at all with tomorrow's storm:

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/04-Jan-94-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html

[forkyfork]

the NAM is pretty icy

[SnoSki14]

Gfs looks a bit more interesting with that storm in the SE, almost gets some light precipitation to far southern NJ. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Like I said yesterday, if we accrete the amount of ice the RGEM has been showing the last couple of runs I'll eat a pile of dirt. It will not happen in my area and certainly not anywhere in Manhattan. Have not seen a significant ice storm in this area since the 1993-94 winter. That streak will continue with this storm. Areas north and west, perhaps it may be a different story.

 

Yeah, I just hope I don't get any wind.

[friedmators]

Id be happy for a few hours of 33 degree sleet here in New Providence.  Nice little coating on everything.  Take what I can get.

[Allsnow]

As modeled now. Looks like we have our coldest day of the winter so far on monday

[Allsnow]

Clipper on gfs is 1-3 for dc next week

[ag3]

Look at skew-t graphs for KNYC on the NAM.

It tells the story. Shallow warm layer at the 800mb layer at hours 21 and 24 with the surface temps at or below zero.

NAM has a period of moderate to heavy sleet/snow, even into NYC.

Best 700 vvs come right over the city at 9z.

 

I'll let Ray (famartin) post hours 21 and 24 skew Ts for NYC off the 12z NAM and will wait for his thoughts.

[famartin]

Just getting up and looking at the morning NAM and GFS progged soundings... looks sleety and rainy around TTN.  Could be a light coating of sleet there.

[famartin]

Look at skew-t graphs for KNYC on the NAM.

It tells the story. Shallow warm layer at the 800mb layer at hours 21 and 24 with the surface temps at or below zero.

NAM has a period of moderate to heavy sleet/snow, even into NYC.

Best 700 vvs come right over the city at 9z.

 

I'll let Ray (famartin) post hours 21 and 24 skew Ts for NYC off the 12z NAM and will wait for his thoughts.

 

Might be some snow mixed in, but these soundings overall scream sleet.  Rain/freezing rain maybe mixing in by 12Z.  Just a bit warmer than 0Z.  I wouldn't expect anything except a coating of sleet/snow with these soundings.

 

[ag3]

Might be some snow mixed in, but these soundings overall scream sleet.  Rain/freezing rain maybe mixing in by 12Z.  Just a bit warmer than 0Z.  I wouldn't expect anything except a coating of sleet/snow with these soundings.

 

 

Thanks Ray. Soundings, IMO, show a good sleet signal through hour 24. Between 1am and 7am, the NAM spits out .45" of precipitation as well. Surface is right at 32 degrees at 9z and 12z.

Upper levels have warmed since last night, but the surface has actually cooled off.

[Weathergun]

The 12z GFS soundings shows sleet and freezing rain for KNYC. Before perhaps ending as plain rain or drizzle by 12z:

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS soundings shows sleet and freezing rain for KNYC. Before perhaps ending as plain rain or drizzle by 12z:

 

12zGFSNYCsounding18.gif

 

12zGFSNYCsounding24.gif

What do the soundings look like for KMMU? We might get a surprise ice storm out this way.

[IsentropicLift]

This is what my bufkit shows for the 12z NAM at KMMU  0.18" ZR. Borderline ice storm warning criteria verbatim.

 

130116/0700Z  19  03006KT  32.4F  SNOW   14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   14:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   90|  0| 10
130116/0800Z  20  04007KT  31.5F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.056    6:1|  0.5|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.09   14| 86|  0
130116/0900Z  21  04008KT  31.2F  SNPL    9:1| 0.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.105    8:1|  1.5|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.20   81| 19|  0
130116/1000Z  22  03008KT  30.6F  SNOW    5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083    7:1|  1.9|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
130116/1100Z  23  03008KT  30.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
130116/1200Z  24  03007KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.04|| 0.40    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  25  05008KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.030    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.07|| 0.43    0|  0|100
130116/1400Z  26  02008KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.053    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.12|| 0.49    0|  0|100
130116/1500Z  27  03008KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.15|| 0.52    0|  0|100
130116/1600Z  28  04007KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.027    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.54    0|  0|100
130116/1700Z  29  04005KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.56    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  01005KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.57    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  31  34003KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.58    0|  0|100
130116/2000Z  32  VRB02KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.58    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  30004KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.59    0|  0|100
130116/2200Z  34  30005KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    7:1|  2.5|| 0.14|| 0.18|| 0.59    0|  0|100
 

[Weathergun]

What do the soundings look like for KMMU? We might get a surprise ice storm out this way.

What do the soundings look like for KMMU? We might get a surprise ice storm out this way.

 

On the 12z GFS, some sleet then freezing rain.

 

[IsentropicLift]

On the 12z GFS, some sleet then freezing rain.

 

Ice storm warning criteria ice?

[IsentropicLift]

12z NAM bufkit for KLGA showing almost all plain rain. Holds surface temps just about freezing for the duration.

 

130116/0600Z  18  05005KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/0700Z  19  01006KT  34.2F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06   12| 78| 10
130116/0800Z  20  04008KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
130116/0900Z  21  03008KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
130116/1000Z  22  03009KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29    0|  0|100
130116/1100Z  23  02009KT  32.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.094    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.38   10| 88|  2
130116/1200Z  24  03007KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.44    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  25  04008KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.47    0|  0|100
130116/1400Z  26  02008KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.51    0|  0|100
130116/1500Z  27  03009KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.56    0|  0|100
130116/1600Z  28  03009KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.57    0|  0|100
130116/1700Z  29  06007KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  02007KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  31  34003KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.62    0|  0|100
130116/2000Z  32  34003KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.62    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  31005KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.63    0|  0|100
130116/2200Z  34  31005KT  33.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.63    0|  0|  0
130116/2300Z  35  30006KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.1|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|100

 

and KHPN, snow, then rain

 

130116/0700Z  19  01005KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   83|  0| 17
130116/0800Z  20  03006KT  31.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030   12:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   91|  9|  0
130116/0900Z  21  02006KT  31.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   10:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
130116/1000Z  22  03007KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082    9:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0
130116/1100Z  23  01007KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102    8:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
130116/1200Z  24  03007KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  25  05006KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41    0|  0|100
130116/1400Z  26  03007KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44    0|  0|100
130116/1500Z  27  03008KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50    0|  0|100
130116/1600Z  28  04008KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51    0|  0|100
130116/1700Z  29  07008KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  04006KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  31  36003KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|100
130116/2000Z  32  VRB02KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  32003KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57    0|  0|100
130116/2200Z  34  30005KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100
130116/2300Z  35  30007KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59    0|  0|100
 

KJFK - all rain

 

130116/0500Z  17  03006KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|100
130116/0600Z  18  04006KT  35.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/0700Z  19  02007KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07    0|  0|100
130116/0800Z  20  03009KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|100
130116/0900Z  21  02009KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
130116/1000Z  22  03010KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28    0|  0|100
130116/1100Z  23  01009KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38    0|  0|100
130116/1200Z  24  03008KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  25  04009KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47    0|  0|100
130116/1400Z  26  03009KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52    0|  0|100
130116/1500Z  27  03011KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100
130116/1600Z  28  03010KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61    0|  0|100
130116/1700Z  29  05009KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  03008KT  35.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  31  34004KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65    0|  0|100
130116/2000Z  32  33004KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  32005KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67    0|  0|100
130116/2200Z  34  32006KT  34.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67    0|  0|  0
130116/2300Z  35  31007KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68    0|  0|100
 

The same at KISP

 

130116/0600Z  18  03005KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/0700Z  19  02006KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|100
130116/0800Z  20  01007KT  34.8F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   19| 60| 21
130116/0900Z  21  02008KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
130116/1000Z  22  03008KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
130116/1100Z  23  02009KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28    0|  0|100
130116/1200Z  24  03007KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  25  04007KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43    0|  0|100
130116/1400Z  26  04009KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46    0|  0|100
130116/1500Z  27  02010KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|100
130116/1600Z  28  03010KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100
130116/1700Z  29  05009KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|100
130116/1800Z  30  07008KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  31  01004KT  37.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65    0|  0|100
130116/2000Z  32  34004KT  37.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66    0|  0|100
130116/2100Z  33  36003KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67    0|  0|100
130116/2200Z  34  33005KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67    0|  0|100
130116/2300Z  35  32006KT  36.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68    0|  0|100
130117/0000Z  36  31007KT  36.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69    0|  0|100
 

and at last, KSWF - All snow - 5" total

 

130116/0700Z  19  03003KT  29.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130116/0800Z  20  05005KT  28.3F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   11:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
130116/0900Z  21  05004KT  27.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
130116/1000Z  22  04005KT  27.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099   10:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
130116/1100Z  23  02005KT  27.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098    8:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
130116/1200Z  24  02005KT  27.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    9:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  25  02005KT  28.1F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38  100|  0|  0
130116/1400Z  26  36007KT  28.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    9:1|  3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
130116/1500Z  27  02006KT  28.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    9:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
130116/1600Z  28  04005KT  28.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    9:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
130116/1700Z  29  01005KT  29.9F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.031    8:1|  4.8|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.57   17| 83|  0
130116/1800Z  30  01006KT  30.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.029    8:1|  4.8|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.60    9| 91|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  31  36004KT  31.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.020    8:1|  4.8|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.62   27| 73|  0
130116/2000Z  32  01004KT  31.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.026    8:1|  4.8|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.64    9| 91|  0
130116/2100Z  33  34003KT  31.5F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.021    8:1|  4.9|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.66   25| 75|  0
130116/2200Z  34  31004KT  31.4F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  4.9|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
130116/2300Z  35  28003KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    8:1|  5.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.68  100|  0|  0

 

[famartin]

Usually icing isn't efficient with temperatures just below freezing and heavier precip; some runs off before freezing.  So, it *could* reach ice storm, but I tend to doubt it.  I think Mt. Holly has an advisory, which seems reasonable.

[allgame830]

Idk if this will mean anything but my temp was supposed to reach 40 today and I am stuck at 34

[dbc]

Usually icing isn't efficient with temperatures just below freezing and heavier precip; some runs off before freezing.  So, it *could* reach ice storm, but I tend to doubt it.  I think Mt. Holly has an advisory, which seems reasonable.

 

Exactly! This is why there will be no pile of dirt on the menu for me when this storm is done.

[IsentropicLift]

Usually icing isn't efficient with temperatures just below freezing and heavier precip; some runs off before freezing.  So, it *could* reach ice storm, but I tend to doubt it.  I think Mt. Holly has an advisory, which seems reasonable.

I just noticed that Upton is more bullish with the icing on the extreme SW corner of it's CWA. I do realize that ice tends to much worse with temps in the mid-upper 20's than what is currently progged. Per the nam the surface would be in the 30-31 degree range while the ZR is falling. Still not good timing with the morning commute. Untreated roads will be a mess.

 

[IsentropicLift]

FWIW it looks like most locations are runnig 3-5 degrees below forecasted highs. Currently at 36 with a forecast high of 41. We'll need all the help we can get as the cloud deck is already locked in here, thus little radiational cooling.

[Kaner587]

FWIW it looks like most locations are runnig 3-5 degrees below forecasted highs. Currently at 36 with a forecast high of 41. We'll need all the help we can get as the cloud deck is already locked in here, thus little radiational cooling.

dews are in the low to mid 20's as well. Don't have a good feeling about this for coastal sections (obv) but for the inland folks I think its a decent storm with some front end snow and moderate icing potential.

[Allsnow]

Canadian looks real good for next weeks clipper. Clipper into miller b

[IsentropicLift]

From HPC

 

 

 

>.01" Freezing rain

 

 

Greater than .10"

 

 

Greater than 0.25"

 

Greater than 0.50"