rgwp96 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 have snow and sleet here and just saw lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Probably not correct and even if it was, I don't think we'd get much if any accumulation. One can see on the fous data that when one level of the atmosphere is cold enough, another is too warm. Starts out with upper levels too warm, ends up with surface and lower levels too warm. Even if some sleet and a few wet flakes fly with temps in the low-mid 30s at best, it should amount to little or nothing. WX/PT I think that, if it was correct, there could be an inch or two in the park. However, I do agree that its probably not correct and if some sleet and snow do mix in, they are unlikely to accumulate in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 For what it's worth, the UKMET is a bit south/cooler than the 12z run, although 850mb temps are still too warm for the city and the closer western suburbs at hour 36. I'm not too optimistic about this one here, although hopefully there could still be a quick inch (maybe 2" at most) for the nearby suburbs before the changeover. NW NJ, SE NY and southern CT IMO look to be the better spots for at least 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro pretty much holds. And it actually cooled the surface off a tick. It's also a much shorter event on the euro. The majority of the precip falls 1am to 7am, .36", and only .09" more after 7am. In and out quickly. At 7am, hour 36, NYC surface is 33.5 degrees and the 850's are below zero. There is really nothing but light drizzle and rain left after that period. Euro verbatim, is probably 1"-3 of snow for the immediate NYC area and then drizzle for a couple hours and dry by 10am. A surface temp of 33.5 degrees and the time of the event, 1am to 7am, can easily accumulate. Especially on non-paved surfaces. This of course presumes the euro is correct. It's light years colder then the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If there were a cold air source, I'd feel a lot better about doing well in a borderline situation. That would help prevent warmer dewpoints from advecting into the area. The early November event had a nice cold, dry high to the north. That being said, climo is certainly on our side given that it is mid January now. Just seeing some flakes would be nice, and that appears to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If there were a cold air source, I'd feel a lot better about doing well in a borderline situation. That would help prevent warmer dewpoints from advecting into the area. The early November event had a nice cold, dry high to the north. That being said, climo is certainly on our side given that it is mid January now. Just seeing some flakes would be nice, and that appears to be possible. It's a bit odd that the euro is the coldest guidance out of all. Even colder then the cold bias hi-res models. The surface freezing line is even colder then the 12z run was. At hour 36, it's below 32 to the coast of SWCT. On the 12z run, the 32 degree line was north of that by a good 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If there were a cold air source, I'd feel a lot better about doing well in a borderline situation. That would help prevent warmer dewpoints from advecting into the area. The early November event had a nice cold, dry high to the north. That being said, climo is certainly on our side given that it is mid January now. Just seeing some flakes would be nice, and that appears to be possible. It's a bit odd that the euro is the coldest guidance out of all. Even colder then the cold bias hi-res models. The surface freezing line is even colder then the 12z run was. At hour 36, it's below 32 to the coast of SWCT. On the 12z run, the 32 degree line was north of that by a good 25 miles. Yeah, that is odd. It has actually been pretty cold in the short term this season. Though a distinct time when it was colder than all other guidance was for the November 7 event, and we all know what happened then. But for that event, at least the GFS wasn't hideously warm...it was certainly warmer than other guidance but not the torch that this run currently is Although there is no true high around, there is a lot of cold air available to the north had there been a high - something we haven't had in a while. Maybe just a little ageostrophic flow can be enough to bring some of that down. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks to be a typical I-78 north storm. Rich get richer. Lol zucker will be happy. Most of the models have warmed to the middle rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks to be a typical I-78 north storm. Rich get richer. Lol zucker will be happy. Most of the models have warmed to the middle rd Agreed. Seems like a N & W winter this year. Reminds me of when I was younger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks to be a typical I-78 north storm. Rich get richer. Lol zucker will be happy. Most of the models have warmed to the middle rd Still looks like a sloppy, non-accumulating mix here in Westchester on the 06z GFS. I'm not that convinced of this threat since dynamics are low and the airmass is marginal. GFS is probably a little too warm but it's probably like 1" on grassy surfaces for the NW suburbs, not a big deal in mid-January. The airmass behind it is trending colder, however, so Friday looks frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like the Nam is coming in a hair warmer than the 6z run but nothing substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Still looks like a sloppy, non-accumulating mix here in Westchester on the 06z GFS. I'm not that convinced of this threat since dynamics are low and the airmass is marginal. GFS is probably a little too warm but it's probably like 1" on grassy surfaces for the NW suburbs, not a big deal in mid-January. The airmass behind it is trending colder, however, so Friday looks frigid. Agreed- this is a wet road event for anyone south & east of 287 with maybe a slushy inch on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Had a mix last night that began around 11pm or so in the form of snow/sleet/rain. I could hear the sleet hitting the window. WWA in effect here for 2-4" of snow and up to 0.10" of ice. Nice little storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z NAM is indicating about a 3-5 hour burst of heavy precip before we get somewhat dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The 9z SREF at the height of the storm late tonight has 70%> probability for rain in NYC, LI and CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's also coming in with 0.5-0.75" for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Goodbye to our chances of a half inch of slush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Goodbye to our chances of a half inch of slush Where do you live? If it's from the city on east you never really had a shot at anything more than a few wet snow flakes mixing in at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The NAM has been trending stronger and further north with the wave for the end of the week. It now wouldn't take that much more to get some light snow into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL the NAM snow map shows 3-4 inches in NRN Queens and Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL the NAM snow map shows 3-4 inches in NRN Queens and Nassau. The 12z NAM has decent 700mb VVs overcoming the warm nose at 800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Goodbye to our chances of a half inch of slush Where do you live? If it's from the city on east you never really had a shot at anything more than a few wet snow flakes mixing in at the start. Lol I know...I'm in northeast metro NJ. I was saying at most a half inch or so here anyway even when it showed 2-3...we'll get ours soon.....maybe in 228 hours or so....on the GFS....until 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The 12z NAM has decent 700mb VVs overcoming the warm nose at 800mb. The NAM is also colder at the surface, the 00Z MOS for LGA was 37/27 at 09Z so frozen precip is not entirely out of the question but seeing snow would be a long shot to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I know it's off topic for this sub-forum but big severe weather outbreak the next few days over the deep south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like we end up squeezed between two systems on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Surprised this hasn't gotten more attention. Big storm showing up on the GFS in the 10-14 day range. Phases a system with the PV. Big storm. Been awhile since we've gotten some good model fantasy porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like we end up squeezed between two systems on friday What you're seeing is the PV dropping down and shearing out the system coming from the deep south. Think of the PV as a giant arctic high pressure system that brings very cold, but dry air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's very tough to time a cold air mass with a storm over here, which is just another reminder of how extraordinary those KU's of 09-10 and 10-11 were because those storms do not happen often especially more than one in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Surprised this hasn't gotten more attention. Big storm showing up on the GFS in the 10-14 day range. Phases a system with the PV. Big storm. Been awhile since we've gotten some good model fantasy porn That's probably the best time of the month to start looking for something more significant here than a clipper snow threat. Once the PV weakens relaxing the suppression, day 11-15 holds better potential for something more interesting. Clipper pattern Maybe something better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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