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Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)


Typhoon Tip

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00z GFS came into better thinking at least for the 22nd event.  Idea of an intensifying low pressure southeast of the BM and with the Gulf Stream natural baroclinic zone present just offshore, chances are rapid cyclogenesis would be possible with such thickness values over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  Cold air over warm water equals strong explosive mixture, now you just need a spark and that spark comes with the trough going towards a negative tilt with a strong energetic system in the base of the trough.

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So I took a drive in my Satellite today over CT, and damn look at the snow off the interstate. Nice fresh cover over Cape Cod and of course there's the screw zone populated by our beloved jaded Bob.

5764f6a751c36ac8c4963609ac6031e9.jpg

 

I can see my house in the huge screw zone that is the S. Shore..blah

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Euro looks like a light snow event for a lot of region...mostly 1-3" type stuff...with perhaps some enhancement on the Cape. The 06z NAM went nuts, lol...not sure I believe that, but we've seen similar type solutions occasionally on some ensemble members. IYs also the NAM past 72h...which is almost worth nothing.

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Euro looks like a light snow event for a lot of region...mostly 1-3" type stuff...with perhaps some enhancement on the Cape. The 06z NAM went nuts, lol...not sure I believe that, but we've seen similar type solutions occasionally on some ensemble members. IYs also the NAM past 72h...which is almost worth nothing.

Go to sleep dude lol...it's 440

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I could actually see something like that if this sets up right. If its too progressive the arctic air will just swallow it though and keep that thin marine influence too far East.

 

The soundings are so cold. DGZ is like 900mb..lol. Waters are warm too which adds instability. Maybe we can spin up a little low like several ensemble members show.

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