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Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)


Typhoon Tip

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Not liking what i'm seeing on the GFS for tuesday-seems way too flat for anything intresting to happen. Euro and JMA seemed to have some more potential though so still in the air. Right now if I had to make a call c-1" in some snowshowers but very little change or see the GFS come onboard and that would have to be changed sharply higher. Keep hoping!

 

-skisheep

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Not liking what i'm seeing on the GFS for tuesday-seems way too flat for anything intresting to happen. Euro and JMA seemed to have some more potential though so still in the air. Right now if I had to make a call c-1" in some snowshowers but very little change or see the GFS come onboard and that would have to be changed sharply higher. Keep hoping!

 

-skisheep

 

 

I really wish the gfs would hop aboard. I don't like it being so flat.

 

Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts.   NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's - what I'm wondering is when that data might get into the initialization grid 

 

does anyone know? 

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One can see why G4 flights are being requested... It has been a long long time since this type of thickness packing has been modeled, and situated so close to the Gulf Stream..

 

You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun when dad left the cabinet unlocked, oops.   If run a 110kt 500mb wind stream over the top of that intense of a frontal slope than the models would quite likely be underdone with sfc result. 

 

No room for compression ... at 22/06z, 500mb height over Miami near 582dm with 40kt winds. An unbroken, un-perturbed solid arc of 100kt winds at 500mb across the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic.

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Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts.   NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's - what I'm wondering is when that data might get into the initialization grid 

 

does anyone know? 

 

This is the plan of the day ... no idea for sure when it gets ingested into the model assimilation. I imagine by 12z tomorrow there's no doubt it's all in there.

 

Definitely complex situation, so hopefully these drops are useful. Will be interesting to see any notable shifts/trends tomorrow!

 

000NOUS42 KNHC 171731REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--.      A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z       B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56       C. 18/1930Z       D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.$JWP
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No room for compression ... at 22/06z, 500mb height over Miami near 582dm with 40kt winds. An unbroken, un-perturbed solid arc of 100kt winds at 500mb across the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic.

 

 

Yes agreed - the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions. 

 

In fact, funny you mentioned that!  I have been hammering that rule of thumb for years - haha.   Little dose of me own medicine ;)

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Yes agreed - the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions. 

 

In fact, funny you mentioned that!  I have been hammering that rule of thumb for years - haha.   Little dose of me own medicine ;)

 

 

I know!! I've been reading your posts for years  ;)

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I drove through N/central CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP today. There's no "snowpack" to speak of down there.

 theres is a few inches of snowpack once you get about 10 miles inland.. only the immediate shore does not have snow pack.. I live about 20 miles north of the shore and we have all of our snow from Wednesday about 2-4", a nice layer of sleet and freezing rain after the snowfall looks to have preserved our snow pack.. only about 24 hours starting tomorrow morning of temps above freezing so snow should last for a while

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You live in CT? You've surveyed everyone's backyard? Shut up

 

 

He said he drove in N/C CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP...meaning he didn't just drive in CT. Snow pack analysis on NOHRSC shows snow cover for most of CT except the southern areas and its getting spotty in the valley.

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He said he drove in N/C CT and a good chunk of the SNE CP...meaning he didn't just drive in CT. Snow pack analysis on NOHRSC shows snow cover for most of CT except the southern areas and its getting spotty in the valley.

 

that snow depth map is about perfect from what i see during my daily commute.. it shows bare ground for immediate coastline.. tr-1" coast to 15 miles inland.. then 2-4" for the rest of the state except like you said spotty in the valley.. even a spot of 4-8 in eastern litchfield/western hartford counties...

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