Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 BOX updated disco. &&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ASA NORLUN TROUGH SETS UP. THESE TROUGHS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANTBUSTS EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEY OFTENRESULT IN VERY NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT ARE TOO MESOSCALEIN NATURE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE. THEN THE REST OF THE REGION ISJUST LEFT WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL.IN THIS CASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING THE QPF INASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THEIR LOWER RESOLUTIONS.MEANWHILE...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIALFOR LOCALIZED BANDING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEIR UNABLE TO LOCATEWITH ENOUGH ACCURACY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SETUP.AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEY SEEM TO PINTWO AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ONE AREASEEMS TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEWENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SECOND AREA THATMAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MA. NOW SOMEMODELS HAVE THAT AREA REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THEOCEAN...ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT BECAUSE ITS AMESOSCALE SITUATION. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW VERYINTENSE SNOWGROWTH OF 40 TO 50 MICROBARS PER SECOND IN THESEBANDS...SO ITS CRUCIAL WHERE EXACTLY THEY SETUP.WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST MA ANDPORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THESE GENERALAREAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING A SWATH OF 4 TO 8INCHES OF SNOW. AGAIN THOUGH...IF THE BANDS SET UP JUST OFFSHORE ORTO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A FEWINCHES. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE WAS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TOUPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE BOSTON TOPROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...WE ENDED UP GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE INBETWEEN THE TWO HEAVIER BANDS.AS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WERE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 3INCHES OF SNOW SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ITS POSSIBLE LATERSHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY...BUTTHERE IS TIME TO DO THAT.THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING.ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THINGS COULD LAST A BIT LONGERACROSS THE NORTH SHORE...AS WELL AS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH SOMEOCEAN ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD TURN QUITE WINDY AS THE STORMDEPARTS TUE MORNING AND MORE VERY COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm sure it'll be a wait and see 5am call...or at least I hope it is. I'm thinking delays are a real possibility. Really comes down to what the snow maps look like during the 11PM newscasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 looks the same as earlier to me BOX updated disco. &&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ASA NORLUN TROUGH SETS UP. THESE TROUGHS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANTBUSTS EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEY OFTENRESULT IN VERY NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT ARE TOO MESOSCALEIN NATURE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE. THEN THE REST OF THE REGION ISJUST LEFT WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL.IN THIS CASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING THE QPF INASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THEIR LOWER RESOLUTIONS.MEANWHILE...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIALFOR LOCALIZED BANDING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEIR UNABLE TO LOCATEWITH ENOUGH ACCURACY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SETUP.AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEY SEEM TO PINTWO AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ONE AREASEEMS TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEWENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SECOND AREA THATMAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MA. NOW SOMEMODELS HAVE THAT AREA REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THEOCEAN...ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT BECAUSE ITS AMESOSCALE SITUATION. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW VERYINTENSE SNOWGROWTH OF 40 TO 50 MICROBARS PER SECOND IN THESEBANDS...SO ITS CRUCIAL WHERE EXACTLY THEY SETUP.WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST MA ANDPORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THESE GENERALAREAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING A SWATH OF 4 TO 8INCHES OF SNOW. AGAIN THOUGH...IF THE BANDS SET UP JUST OFFSHORE ORTO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A FEWINCHES. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE WAS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TOUPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE BOSTON TOPROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...WE ENDED UP GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE INBETWEEN THE TWO HEAVIER BANDS.AS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WERE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 3INCHES OF SNOW SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ITS POSSIBLE LATERSHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY...BUTTHERE IS TIME TO DO THAT.THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING.ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THINGS COULD LAST A BIT LONGERACROSS THE NORTH SHORE...AS WELL AS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH SOMEOCEAN ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD TURN QUITE WINDY AS THE STORMDEPARTS TUE MORNING AND MORE VERY COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 15z rpm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm thinking delays are a real possibility. Really comes down to what the snow maps look like during the 11PM newscasts. Yeah the tv mets are going to be a pretty big factor in delays/cancellations depending on how they word their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 TWC has 6-12" for about Quincy down to Taunton east to P-Town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 15z rpm? Lower resolution 12km.. waiting on 4km, but they typically are fairly similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 WHDH updated their map...and its less confusing and gradient looking then the wbz map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 WHDH updated their map...and its less confusing and gradient looking then the wbz map. Right now this looks pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Staying the course or heavy intercourse? Nice 12z suite so far, may have to uppity bumpitty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 WHDH updated their map...and its less confusing and gradient looking then the wbz map. Toss. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What happened to that rpm map? That limp dark blue penis of 6-8 was over my house. Can't post em. Pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Can't post em. Pay site. If you delete it can you maybe explain what was on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Can't post em. Pay site. Damn....I was going to give it a Cialis and expand e area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Can't post em. Pay site. My bad...won't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If I was on tv I think I'd pretty much issue what WHDH did and mention the coast has high bust potential...but I'd extend the 2-4 to include RI and NE CT...the 2-4 contour is a little oddly shaped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 My bad...won't happen again. Can you tell us about the 4km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 might have to take my #s up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Margusity called it a Norland trough today. I mean just an embarrassment to the met community Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 might have to take my #s up.We bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If you delete it can you maybe explain what was on it? Lots of pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What do you think the chances are of a model like you and a weenie like me... ending up together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Snowing nicely today at UNV. Soon to be ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What do you think the chances are of a model like you and a weenie like me... ending up together? nam_bufkit_01_22_13.jpg Is that out in HYA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What do you think the chances are of a model like you and a weenie like me... ending up together? nam_bufkit_01_22_13.jpg Is that out in HYA? I think that was CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Really wish I was in Brewster, MA for this one. Ah well, can't have everything I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Phil that was sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think that was CHH That's sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Jerry can u link an image of btv wrf total precip or a recap of qpf totals/max areas. Or anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 That's sick. Someone care to educate me on how to interpret that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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