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Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)


Typhoon Tip

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Its 37-39 hills and 40-44 coast for 1 day. Snowpack in tact FTW

 

 

Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

 

Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

 

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 21 mph.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.81738473661011&lon=-72.38548278808594

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Epic? I reserve epic for something that fits the definition.

 

This just looks cold with a couple of chances for some snow.

 

Well that's some of the coldest air we've seen with the chance for snow, and the extended looked good. Obviously subjective.

 

True epic would be that week in Jan 2005 that Bob mentioned.

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I am more interested in the storm the Euro is picking up around the 25th - 26th. Long way out, but I think that could be the real deal.

 

Still more interested in this period.

 

Quick discussion on how I see this evolving ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/3/entry-35-increased-storminess-for-last-week-of-january/

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Well that's some of the coldest air we've seen with the chance for snow, and the extended looked good. Obviously subjective.

 

True epic would be that week in Jan 2005 that Bob mentioned.

 

Yeah. You can't just throw around terms like epic, bomb, or air apparent.

 

It isn't right.

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It was just tongue and cheek too...given these last 15 months...it probably qualifies..lol.

 

:lol: it's all relative.

 

Hey, an unpredicted snow squall dumped 1.5" in Norman at the end of December, and people at OU are practically scrambling to do case studies on the epic model bust

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Still more interested in this period.

 

Quick discussion on how I see this evolving ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/3/entry-35-increased-storminess-for-last-week-of-january/

so if I am getting you right Sam you see the 26th or so as the first, the SWFE.  Then you see a chance for a digging amplifying system which I suppose could be snow up here but a changeover further south and east?  would that second system then help build our NAO?

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so if I am getting you right Sam you see the 26th or so as the first, the SWFE.  Then you see a chance for a digging amplifying system which I suppose could be snow up here but a changeover further south and east?  would that second system then help build our NAO?

 

Right, so I feel pretty good about the 26th storm threat ... whatever comes before it will be minor IMO.  The s/w that follows the 26th might bring a brief warm up to the Ohio Valley ... New England is might stay cold given the persistent confluence. But that could be another wintry threat around 29-30.

 

Haven't looked at much after that ... just talking about how the CONUS should open up for increased storminess for the last week of January

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Right, so I feel pretty good about the 26th storm threat ... whatever comes before it will be minor IMO.  The s/w that follows the 26th might bring a brief warm up to the Ohio Valley ... New England is might stay cold given the persistent confluence. But that could be another wintry threat around 29-30.

 

Haven't looked at much after that ... just talking about how the CONUS should open up for increased storminess for the last week of January

Cool!  Maybe time for you to plan a trip back.

 

i have been feeling good about late next week for a while....just seems like the right time given the slow progression of events and the evolution of the MJO.  I would think that at some point, with the MJO going into 7 and 8, and the strat warming, that we will get a real -NAO.  The cold should be able to stay around for quite awhile.  Seems to me that we get a real stretch of winter up here and at some point the NAO brings the mid atlantic in the game.  My goal is always to exceed 2 feet on the level every winter and we just might be there by the end of the first week of Feb.

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Moderation:  I have no issue if you want this thread to be used for the overall colder and stormier pattern as I can see there are others chomping at the bit to discuss stuff beyond Tuesday's system.  I will change the title if you need - 

 

Folks, NCEP:  "......THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTICFRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA..."

 

  Not sure when that sounde data would make it into the grid, but clearly there are top minds onto this issue/volatility in the domain for the time frame in question, so it's definitely interesting.

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Tipper. The Mon nite/ Tues event is like a 2-4 or 3-6 fluff bomb regionwide

 

 

I tell you what, Kevin, the Euro has zippo wiggle room - if that deep layer gets even a little bit more amped when that wavy turns the corner in the OV, that would be a NJ Model bomb *( and I mean actual deepening rates ).  Very very close there. 

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One can see why G4 flights are being requested... It has been a long long time since this type of thickness packing has been modeled, and situated so close to the Gulf Stream..

 

You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun when dad left the cabinet unlocked, oops.   If run a 110kt 500mb wind stream over the top of that intense of a frontal slope than the models would quite likely be underdone with sfc result. 

 

nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif

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