Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I just hope I can grab 2-3. I know the risk is also higher depending on where the banding sets up....but it's tough to be bullish.I have a feeling this is gonna be good for you. I could see you down to Cweat getting more than the Cape when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 RAP is quite nice here. But, hr 18 is like hr 72 on the NAM. How far out before the RAP is any use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Still amazed we are talking snow in near 500 thickness, very cool. Seems pretty set that an initial round of snow breaks out with a general 1-2 across the region, enhancement as a stronger line of convergence moves across the region, west of the Ct river is done with a general 1-3, East of the river enhancement in Eastern areas as stronger inflow and a mesolow start to form 2-4. Areas from PVD including the RI coast and east running from the Maine coast down to CC 3-6 with anyone under that mini CCB if it forms close to the coast getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like GYX updated there map....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 How far out before the RAP is any use? Probably inside 12hrs. It may be right, but I find it can be really amped up in its longer ranges. I wouldn't say toss it...just something to keep in the back of your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Probably inside 12hrs. It may be right, but I find it can be really amped up in its longer ranges. I wouldn't say toss it...just something to keep in the back of your mind. Thanks Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 HRRR Dev1 cleaned the clocks of both the RAP and Primary HRRR the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On mobile but 4km hrrr 6z abd btv wrf must have shifted (meso's) away from york to wells maine jpot. I mean looking ar grey maines reduction on snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM sim radar is interesting in that it shows the burst of precip that swings out from WSW to ENE under/over us, then the other wraps down. Could easily miss both, or get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The gulfstream will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 HRRR Dev1 cleaned the clocks of both the RAP and Primary HRRR the other day. Not much use at the moment until later this afternoon for up here anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Here's the Dev1, the other day the Primary was too aggressive this model was more toned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On mobile but 4km hrrr 6z abd btv wrf must have shifted (meso's) away from york to wells maine jpot. I mean looking ar grey maines reduction on snowfall map? That map is an upgrade from the one earlier in those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Rollo, now cast, look out your window tonight, watch your winds, watch the radar, no model is going to nail this, anymore than they can nail which town gets a prolonged Tstorm rather than a squall. General areas but watch HRRR, tonight, every run will be different for anything plus 6. It will be helpful, for the plus 1-3 radar sims but this is so localized, you should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Models are sensing the gulfstream expect 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Seems like the possibility of taint/rain here. Already 31 and that wind will be off the "warm" water before the storm goes by and shuts us off. Wonder how far north the taint infiltrates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Thinking a dusting to a few inches at my house. Just don't have confidence in the NCEP guidance, 3" i'd feel is a win, dusting to 2" about expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Seems like the possibility of taint/rain here. Already 31 and that wind will be off the "warm" water before the storm goes by and shuts us off. Wonder how far north the taint infiltrates. It's possible it could mix if the low develops nearby, but you'll get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Models are sensing the gulfstream expect 12-18". Conservative. Local lollis of 24"+ obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just an FYI...models have SSTs embedded in their scheme. They are well aware of the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like GYX updated there map....................... StormTotalSnowFcst.png I will be happy with 4" - 6" of fluff, with a chance of the trof setting up further north. Thanks for posting, Jeff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Seems like the possibility of taint/rain here. Already 31 and that wind will be off the "warm" water before the storm goes by and shuts us off. Wonder how far north the taint infiltrates. at 504 thickness? I don"t think so. Didn't you just have 3 plus with wind off the water, wait you are an island isn't the wind always off the water, just kidding, you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Models are sensing the gulfstream expect 12-18". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I will be happy with 4" - 6" of fluff, with a chance of the trof setting up further north. Thanks for posting, Jeff! Your welcome John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Lol 494 thickness tickling Scooters behind after the snow, anybody know what our lowest thickness was last winter? Tried to remember but maybe 520? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just an FYI...models have SSTs embedded in their scheme. They are well aware of the gulf stream. I thought we were talking about these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Methinks the NAM is the best run yet for qpf-fetishists in GC. The 00z run had .32" at AQW, awaiting the final tabulations for this one. I'll take and run. Marblehead/Gloucester/Newburyport ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Conservative. Local lollis of 24"+ obvious. Finally somebody is recognizing the potential ... KURO has been uncharacteristically conservative on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 at 504 thickness? I don"t think so. Didn't you just have 3 plus with wind off the water, wait you are an island isn't the wind always off the water, just kidding, you will be fine. Lol. Yup, last time the temps were crashing. Started as rain then changed. I don't think our temps drop until the precip shuts off this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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