USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The moist southeasterly flow at the surface ahead of the main low pressure center will allow for light snow to break out by Monday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests a good 4-8" of snow will impact the region by Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon the OES will kick in with strong banding signal just offshore of Truro, MA. THe surface winds are expected to stay out of the Northwest throughout Tueday and Wednesday and then Thursday before another snowstorm impacts the region on Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL very helpful end of the night forecast on NECN, pretty much says coastal areas from cape cod to cape Ann are dealing with anywhere from 5-15" depending on how it all shakes out and where. I'm sure it must be fun trying to stress the variability of this to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 00Z SPC WRF looks damn good for SNE, its more at the end of its range though, I tend to believe it more inside 24 than from 24-36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the 0z BTV WRF really hammers portsmouth nh to york/wells maine. big pocket of 1-1.60 qpf in that area. also pocket of 1-1.25 qpf from haverhill area N to interior SE nh...exeter, etc. that model is good and is starting to hone in i'm afraid, i hope it shifts south a bit but norlun climo may argue against that. is this a "pure" norlun , is there even such a thing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 00Z SPC WRF looks damn good for SNE, its more at the end of its range though, I tend to believe it more inside 24 than from 24-36 hours yes it looks good for E MA esp NE mass, cape but i feel the BTV WRF may have better handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 yes it looks good for E MA esp NE mass, cape but i feel the BTV WRF may have better handle. Do you have a link to btv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Do you have a link to btv? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro has light snow along the entire New England coast east of Narragansett Bay at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The btv looks right. It also is pretty nice down to Quincy including Boston indicative of more 2-5 considering high ratios vs 1-3. Lynn northeast is nice and parts of see coast Maine get smoked. Euro is definitely more but still pretty meh. Hwever, the distribution of max more or less agrees with btv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro is definitely more but still pretty meh. Hwever, the distribution of max more or less agrees with btv. How much does it give for this part of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The btv looks right. It also is pretty ice down to Quincy including Boston indicative of more 2-5 considering high ratios vs 1-3. Lynn northeast is nice and parts of see coast Maine get smoked. Euro is definitely more but still pretty meh. Hwever, the distribution of max more or less agrees with btv. considering the 0z 4km hrrr-arm comes in almost mirroring the BTV WRF 0z high apf areas, it seems we have increasing confidence SW maine is in the bulls eye WRT to this event. YORK maine over to wells SW to portsmouth area is modeled to have .75+ with bullseye near 1.50 right on coast around wells,maine. sharp cut off to the NE toward portland on both meso models. also to note 0z HRRR-arw has outer cape in a higher qpf like btv-wrf did basically .5+ qpf area on outer 1/2 of cape. HRRR has same area from haverhill over to exeter getting a bit more than the rest of NE mass as did btv wrf . basically north central mass over to NE mass has .25-.50 on hrrr. DITTO for RI and SE mass over to W cape. with a bit less sandwiched between the two .25-.50 areas. i would consider winter storm warnings for portsmouth over to well maine by tomm am if meso continue to highlight this area. 6am to 1pm is when that area really gets absolutely blitzed on meso models. i would think currently NE mass and coastal maine further NE should monitor trends on meso especially as small shifts would seriously effect these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 How much does it give for this part of SNE? Maybe 0.1...barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 jerry what the euro print out for SE NH over to SW coastal maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 jerry what the euro print out for SE NH over to SW coastal maine euro gives nothing to anyone on the weatherunderground maps . an inch or two just offshore SW coastal maine. man the euro is on it's own again it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 jerry what the euro print out for SE NH over to SW coastal maine Hard to tell but Probably 0.25 RIGHT along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd be thrilled if I got 3-4 out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM got much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 good morning scott....over here in london...continuous snow. you must be up with your son eh? so nam got better for your area eh? could be a nice event where models backed off a little but come back strong 6z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I actually anticipated that the models come back to their amped up solutions, more so because of the Gulf Stream and that intensity of the baroclinic zone which will feed into the norlun trough. NAM is much better in its handling of energy at H5, actually intensifies the H5 vort max as it crosses the region. Surface low develops closer to the coast and then rapidly strengthens. The GFS has begun to catch onto this happening as of the 00z run, its 6z run will be fascinating to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 22.2 Headed to AZ, enjoy the snow everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I actually anticipated that the models come back to their amped up solutions, more so because of the Gulf Stream and that intensity of the baroclinic zone which will feed into the norlun trough. NAM is much better in its handling of energy at H5, actually intensifies the H5 vort max as it crosses the region. Surface low develops closer to the coast and then rapidly strengthens. The GFS has begun to catch onto this happening as of the 00z run, its 6z run will be fascinating to watch. It has nothing to do with the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I actually anticipated that the models come back to their amped up solutions, more so because of the Gulf Stream Gulf stream miracle! It has nothing to do with the gulf stream. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The gulf stream will turn this into jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The gulf stream will turn this into jan 2005. Yeah, never underestimate the power of the gulf stream. There's no stopping it now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Mahk webstah eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 A little more sharply defined. Congrats to our eastern friends. My forecast is for 1-3". I'll stick with the lower end for mby. 15.1/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm gonna trim back the 3-6 East of river to 2-4 with 1-3 west of river... 3-6 for Eastern Mass ,..Congrats on your winter storm warning later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm gonna trim back the 3-6 East of river to 2-4 with 1-3 west of river... 3-6 for Eastern Mass ,..Congrats on your winter storm warning later on I guess Middlesex County and Rhode Island count as "east of the river". Seriously though-while there may be reports higher, I think the 1-3" from all of CT/ and in Mass from ORH-west looks good. Higher end east and trail downward from there. Will likely have a little blowing of it tomorrow as well--particularly in the areas that get several inches. Congrats Dave on making it into the weenie-stripe on the BOX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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