USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 THe runs tonight don't offer much excitement, I would have thought that they would trend closer to the coastline with the surface low. NWS thinks the Cape gets 4-8", I wouldn't bet against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM was OK here, but I'll believe it when I see a band on radar sitting over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Phil, what do you take from the models showing that southeasterly low level flow moistening up the atmosphere and maybe dumping a few inches across the Cape before then main piece of the puzzle comes through? Thoughts on mid week clipper? To me the mid week clipper energy looks better onthe NAM then tomorrow's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM had about 0.25" for ORH...close to the SREF mean...but did it in a different way. It has two decent bands. I think the initial band is the more likely of the two as that has been modeled on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If the convergence can linger long enough, then we may have something..but this could be a messy deal with all these meso bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If I could only believe the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We have three areas of banding that develop throughout the period. SREFs shows probs pretty decent for the Outer Cape when it comes to the Ocean Effect Snow showers that develop in northwesterly flow just staying offshore. Truro and Provincetown, MA could see decent accumulations just from that from Tuesday through Thursday, we just need the winds to turn northerly please. This might be one of those situations in which the BOX radar site shows excellent snow growth in the banding that is just offshore of the outer Cape Cod, MA area. This will suck to see the perpetual nature of the OES bands when the push comes to shove. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Gulfstream will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Always like moist flow, wait weather, makes it easier to accumulate Powderfreak J Spin style in a cold environment . Lots of air space and it's not good for cover but Friday will fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS not terrible for the S Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Gulfstream will save us. Yes it won't.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 With the 00z GFS track and intensity of the surface low, it won't be as dry as the GFS shows, I would go with NAM amounts and GFS placement as my best guesses right now for accumulations. GFS has a better track for the low, and better intensity as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Always like moist flow, wait weather, makes it easier to accumulate Powderfreak J Spin style in a cold environment . Lots of air space and it's not good for cover but Friday will fix that. Heavy, heavy settling and sublimation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Gfs is a few inches tops which is fine with me. Ride the rpm..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Reason for going with the NAM in terms of QPF amounts? The Gulf Stream will aide in rapid growth of banding signals and precipitation output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Reason for going with the NAM in terms of QPF amounts? The Gulf Stream will aide in rapid growth of banding signals and precipitation output. A mesoscale Jan 05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd guess 1-3 for most right now with obviously some luckier folks getting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Heavy, heavy settling and sublimationBy far the best dendrites and snow look until it goes poof. GFS is nice just below me, South coasts signal pretty strong now, congrat CoastAl RI dude from Westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd guess 1-3 for most right now with obviously some luckier folks getting more. 1-1.5" for you and I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS isn't that bad looking. I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS isn't that bad looking. I would. Moosup special for this part of SNE lol. NB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 1-1.5" for you and I I think we may do slightly better but it's really a total crap shoot whether we get 1 or 3". Ratios should be high. Much better than the standard 12 to 1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Moosup special for this part of SNE lol. NB! It will probably be a nowcasting deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I still like this forecast... No changes for the 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS isn't that bad looking. I would. If you loop the surface, it blows up the coastal and it looks like a basic coastal storm albeit late blooming but sort of in time for a middling hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If you loop the surface, it blows up the coastal and it looks like a basic coastal storm albeit late blooming but sort of in time for a middling hit. It's more even than the NAM. Im still hoping for 2-3" but it easily may be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd guess 1-3 for most right now with obviously some luckier folks getting more. Indeed. 1-3 here is pretty easy call. BOS maybe 2-4. In NE MASS and the cape prob 3-6 or 4-8. Ryan's map basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's more even than the NAM. Im still hoping for 2-3" but it easily may be less. My friend texted me and said he heard 5 inches by Tuesday morning and wanted my opinion. My reply: "I think it is going to be quite variable since this is not a typical system. My guess for us is less." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I like the GFS track and intensity while I like the NAM QPF amounts. The question always then becomes is the NAM overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I still like this forecast... No changes for the 11. I'm on board with your forecast. I'd probably put 4-5" on the Cape but that's not really a big change imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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