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Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)


Typhoon Tip

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How come?

 

Well it's just not the setup I think. I think 1-2" will cover a good part of the area. Maybe you can get 3 or something if that convergence band sets up quick enough, but I don't see the reason to go 2-4 or higher widespread. I think 1-2 or I guess 1-3  would probably cover most...perhaps 1-2 closer to the CT river or something. 

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Feast or famine basically.

 

 

Live by banding, die by banding!    When I was but a boy growing up in western Lower Michigan, I lived in Kalama - "butt banged between LES bands" - zoo.   Just by a quirk of spacial nuance, Kalamazoo County seems to favor being between bands of snow when the sounding changes from granular snow plumes, to organized streets.  As long as the plume stayed granulator, we were like everyone else and it was a like 3-5 inch wind-whipped nasty bite event for everyone west of mid state.  But, when the sounding relaxed a little and the plumes organized into convective streets, there more times than not would be a band NE and SW, and it was torture knowing as a weather larva that it was 3/hr in those bands and only intermittent flurries around icy cu over the city.   Not all the time, no - but the preferred set up was a screw. 

 

Obviously Norlun bares 0 resemblance to Lake Effect ... But anytime you get banding, it is as you say, feast or famine.  

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Well it's just not the setup I think. I think 1-2" will cover a good part of the area. Maybe you can get 3 or something if that convergence band sets up quick enough, but I don't see the reason to go 2-4 or higher widespread. I think 1-2 or I guess 1-3 would probably cover most...perhaps 1-2 closer to the CT river or something.

ok thanks. At least you laid out your reasoning
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Like 0.05". A solid 5" with 100:1 ratios.

 

I literally laughed out loud.  OT - but I think front is nearing.  Just got dark here and winds switching more northerly.

 

Back on topic...I'd keep the forecast as an inch or two W of ORH.  A couple to few inches E of ORH with some weenie band (maybe 20-30 miles wide??) with higher amounts.

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