CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's really tailored for inside 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What's with the RPM fetish all of a sudden?There's been a fetish with it for the past few weeks, especially when it shows ridiculous snowfall amounts. I'm thinking 1-3" for CT now. Will take a closer look later, but the best banding will likely miss us to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 6z Btv wrf thru only 1 am tues. Has most of us between .1 and .25. Little weenie band .25 over watatic mtn area (eyeballing) and larger swipe .25 se ri over to bob to scitiuate se. Little qpf bullseye thru 1am tues off shore ne mass se nh , but touching portsmouth, nh area. Watch se nh. Lookin fwd to 12z btv wrf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 ya, it's pretty consistent and good inside 24hrs IMO...it nailed this past week's event at about that frame (esp wrt the taint) It's really tailored for inside 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 There's been a fetish with it for the past few weeks, especially when it shows ridiculous snowfall amounts. I'm thinking 1-3" for CT now. Will take a closer look later, but the best banding will likely miss us to the northeast. I agree the best banding will likely miss us to our northeast, however, it is possible that parts of SE CT or eastern CT could get into the best banding but that will depend on several factors which we really probably won't know for sure until late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Even though the Euro has a higher resolution than the GFS it's still a global model. It has different convective parametrization schemes than a mesoscale model and is also hydrostatic.... so while the higher resolution helps for an intrinsically mesoscale (and convective, you could say) phenomenon it may not be of much use. Yeah agree...non-hydrostatic is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I am pushing all my chips in...unbeatable hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GEM looks like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Just looking at the 12z RGEM and it picks up on the 2 areas of precip as well, similar to the NAM. Has the initial area over RI/ SE MA/ CC and than blossoms the inverted trough over NE MA/ NH/ ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 6z Btv wrf thru only 1 am tues. Has most of us between .1 and .25. Little weenie band .25 over watatic mtn area (eyeballing) and larger swipe .25 se ri over to bob to scitiuate se. Little qpf bullseye thru 1am tues off shore ne mass se nh , but touching portsmouth, nh area. Watch se nh. Lookin fwd to 12z btv wrf. Little is an understatement. It's has 2"+ between BOS and BVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GEM looks like crap Toss the the low res globals. We're focusing on the high res mesos now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Whispy cirrus? With localized hangings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GEM looks like crap It was mainly a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yup. As always, though, the models are going to struggle with the placement. We know the potential given the forcing and low static stability now the issue is where does it set up. York County Maine or Plymouth County Mass? The lingering question for me is whether there's enough synoptic forcing and inflow off the ocean back this way to produce a widespread accumulating snow or is it just light crap before it blossoms to our east. that's a tough call. there's a lot of subsidence showing up by morning, moving E. but there's some decent inflow even on the EURO. the trick is does the surface trough being oriented more SE to NW interrupt that inflow and break apart the moisture feed trying to head west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Call me a huge skeptic, but if it's down to the NAM/RPM showing anything of real consequence backed up only by other NCEP guidance...I'll expect a dusting to a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Call me a huge skeptic, but if it's down to the NAM/RPM showing anything of real consequence backed up only by other NCEP guidance...I'll expect a dusting to a few inches. Inclined to agree, just want to see something, anything with some more credibility hop on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I can see I've taught a lot of people well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I can see I've taught a lot of people well. What not to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Little is an understatement. It's has 2"+ between BOS and BVY. huh? Are u looking at the 6z wrf, unless the 12z just went out, but thru 48 hrs on 6z those were accurate totals . U have me pretty excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I can see I've taught a lot of people well. Agreed - I now know to discount your snowfall forecasts by 80%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Pretty much feast or famine I think. Gonna be tough for more than an inch or two widespread, and then someone may get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I can see I've taught a lot of people well. I feel sorry for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What not to do? So you don't think there's widespread 2-4 or 3-6 inch amounts from HFD eats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Inclined to agree, just want to see something, anything with some more credibility hop on board. NCEP stuff, Nam/GFS and SREFS were all too aggressive. The RGEM is usually decent with these features for it to be so dry.... Euro doesn't resolve these things well but would like to see it come around too. Time will tell. We just had a heavy snow squall blow through here with rain at the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 So you don't think there's widespread 2-4 or 3-6 inch amounts from HFD eats? Nobody but you thinks that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NCEP stuff, Nam/GFS and SREFS were all too aggressive. The RGEM is usually decent with these features for it to be so dry.... Euro doesn't resolve these things well but would like to see it come around too. Time will tell. We just had a heavy snow squall blow through here with rain at the base. The front is pushing thru there now into the Foothills, Winds should be picking up on the backside soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyone mention uncle? Nice hit for ORH eastward and very for ema particularly ne ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NCEP stuff, Nam/GFS and SREFS were all too aggressive. The RGEM is usually decent with these features for it to be so dry.... Euro doesn't resolve these things well but would like to see it come around too. Time will tell. We just had a heavy snow squall blow through here with rain at the base. Atleast for me the only thing that has more than a dusting is the NAM , the SREFS, and the RPM. Not exactly what I want on my side when the GFS and the EURO are both against. But, if in 24 hours they are still holding on I might have to up expectations a bit, but for now if I could get 1" that would be great, put a nice white coat on everything. Still think the end of the week has much better potential. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyone mention uncle? Nice hit for ORH eastward and very for ema particularly ne ma. yeah it's pretty good for E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm a Kevin party supporter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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