weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 globals aren't going to "come around" imo. Which models do you favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 m Scott how does it look down towards Plymouth if you had to make a rough conservative call? I think you'll do fairly well. I think a 2-4 deal is in the cards anyways, but remember the wild card for these events. The ironic thing tomorrow is that SW winds may give you and parts of the Cape OES tomorrow!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Earl Barker also has the text output for the 12km NAM. Does not look like the 12z is up yet though. http://wxcaster.com/models_text3.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yep. That's what will force the band of S+.. Thanks scott, this will be fun , the poster from peabody is prob in solid spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Euro is like T1279 or something which is relatively close in horizontal res to the NAM and it has more vertical levels too. However it just never seems to be able to sniff out the heavy amounts in these NORLUNs very well for whatever reason. EC ens were only slightly wetter than the op, but they both have that max axis just offshore of NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Sw winds on cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Which models do you favor? the globals aren't going to come around in the sense they aren't going to accurately represent the NORLUN trough feature by low-level convergence or qpf. In terms of general snowfall across SNE, they're going to be alright...but not the NORLUN feature itself. I mean the GFS might have 1/4" of QPF in a LES area that gets 2 ft of snow lol. A 30km spectral model doesn't have the resolution or non-hydrostatic dynamic to resolve something like that. You'd like to see the Euro bump up stuff to a degree though, since it has 12km resolution it can at least attempt to resolve more mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Sw winds on cape? Out ahead of this yes. Good setup for SW flow to give some snow with very cold low levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think you'll do fairly well. I think a 2-4 deal is in the cards anyways, but remember the wild card for these events. The ironic thing tomorrow is that SW winds may give you and parts of the Cape OES tomorrow!. Still have guests at house so we are up skiing. It's gorgeous up at sunday river has to be 30-35 no wind yet at 11am. Hoping for 2-4 and maybe get lucky. Just happy we are going to have winter after 1/20 for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 . Thanks scott, this will be fun , the poster from peabody is prob in solid spot Yeah, I know this could easily screw given It's nature but I'm really liking the potential. I would go by name but there's already another Jerry on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Euro is like T1279 or something which is relatively close in horizontal res to the NAM and it has more vertical levels too. However it just never seems to be able to sniff out the heavy amounts in these NORLUNs very well for whatever reason. EC ens were only slightly wetter than the op, but they both have that max axis just offshore of NE MA. Yeah it could be congrats Stellwagen bank too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NWS BUF runs a WRF with GFS boundary conditions which I think is a nice compromise. You get the better synoptic boundary conditions of the GFS but the mesoscale feature and non-hydrostatic dynamics of the wrf. Unfortunately the grid doesn't cover SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I wish BOX had some sort of webpage like BTV. Get on it Turtle..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Even the GFS is fairly unstable for a short time overnight Monday into Tuesday! Thundersnow would be a definite possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NWS BUF runs a WRF with GFS boundary conditions which I think is a nice compromise. You get the better synoptic boundary conditions of the GFS but the mesoscale feature and non-hydrostatic dynamics of the wrf. Unfortunately the grid doesn't cover SNE.That's how our WRF runs. I actually had been meaning to run it...I should get it going tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Gotcha, cool this will be fun to track. I hope the cfront isn't offshore n mass leaving essex county inhaling subsidence, that is one way I see a fail, with potential max qpf off shore euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 LOL at the RPM. 10-15" E MA. 15-20" extreme NE coastal MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This could be brutal to watch out here...could see struggling to 2" or getting 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's how our WRF runs. I actually had been meaning to run it...I should get it going tonight. Somehow running it with EC boundary conditions would be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's how our WRF runs. I actually had been meaning to run it...I should get it going tonight. make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This could be brutal to watch out here...could see struggling to 2" or getting 6-8". Sounds like boston during every event this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Actually can someone link the burlington wrf, abs. nailed the ne mass area on post xmas storm qpf high spots. Btv website, and as phil says, I need to get a iphone! But find btv wrf model qpf for this, I think it is a good model for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This could be brutal to watch out here...could see struggling to 2" or getting 6-8". I'd probably expect 2-3" or so for ORH metro right now....and then be pleasantly surprised if we pick up more than that. It all depends on how these boundaries set up....there's a brief period where we may clean up when winds are almost due E Monday night...but there's so many weird things that can happen. Coastal MA is def in a more favorable spot, but we can sometimes pick up the edges of the brunt and end up with a respectable total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 OT - but a relative just posted a picture from her house in London...pretty awesome snowstorm over there too! We're all cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This could be brutal to watch out here...could see struggling to 2" or getting 6-8". It's a 3-6 type event east of 1-91 with 2-4 west of that..not a diffcult forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's a 3-6 type event east of 1-91 with 2-4 west of that..not a diffcult forecast Tossing the KFS/Kuro in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looking at some bufkit soundings the area of best snowgrowth zone is pretty shallow...between like 6-10K or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's a 3-6 type event east of 1-91 with 2-4 west of that..not a diffcult forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Somehow running it with EC boundary conditions would be sick.Wasn't there a study where the GFS running off of the Euro init conditions had higher scores than the EC op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looking at some bufkit soundings the area of best snowgrowth zone is pretty shallow...between like 6-10K or so. Yeah but you'll have good VV in there. You always have good snowgrowth with inv troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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