Hazey Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The nam is good for my area too. The problem is, is it right?? Seems to be on it's own, with srefs of course, but no other model support hard to take it seriously. In nam we trust?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Haven't seen it posted in a while... would the MM5 have use here once it gets in range? I remember it having good resolution in finding these meso-scale features that might be really critical tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Starting to get excited about seeing our biggest snowfall here in over 2 years in the Boston area. Though just a little nervous about the Euro and also that I may be just a little too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah I agree we'll see something like it. The RPM and hi res NAM have been dumping just insane QPF with that thing though.... I saw one RPM run get over 3" over Stellwagen Bank! That kind of stuff may be overdone and resulting in some subsidence to the west over coastal eastern Mass. Yeah I mean I'm not sure it will happen, but I think I would lean that way since these things always seem to have micro lows..lol. The other thing working with this is the mega temp gradient from Mass to near BOS. Temps in the 30s there with teens maybe west of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm a bit more excited for the weekend possibility. Having the potential for a coastal bomb with 850s kissing -10C could make for some epic fun...and for a larger portion of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm a bit more excited for the weekend possibility. Having the potential for a coastal bomb with 850s kissing -10C could make for some epic fun...and for a larger portion of the region. I agree on that, Bruins looked mid season form last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This is fun to watch to be sure. For the vast majority of the SNE geography, this will just be a minor event that does little more than allow us to add to our annual total. But the few (actually, many given the population of eastern areas) who cash in will cash in big. Another 12 hours or so and the lines will have been pretty accurately drawn methinks. Still awaitin' on my winds. 38.9/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I agree on that, Bruins looked mid season form last night Still would need some work in order to get some pretty explosive cyclogenesis but at this stage it's still a possibility. I was shocked at how well they handled the Rangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 These suck because screw potential is so high. Verbatim, I would be sucking subsidence exahaust after a few inches perhaps. You must stay strong for your child! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MM5 anyone? Wouldn't this be useful forecasting meso-scale features in this situation? Haven't seen it posted in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 looks like the GFS is going to back off 6z -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MM5 anyone? Wouldn't this be useful forecasting meso-scale features in this situation? Haven't seen it posted in a while. Not out yet. GFS still meh for ern MA. Decent for the Cape though. Not even sure the GFS or euro will handle this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MM5 anyone? Wouldn't this be useful forecasting meso-scale features in this situation? Haven't seen it posted in a while. It's a little outdated I think, but yeah, this would be the time to look at it if you ever would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MM5 anyone? Wouldn't this be useful forecasting meso-scale features in this situation? Haven't seen it posted in a while. It sucks outside 24h for the most part. It doesn't come out for another hour at least anyway. (SUNY MM5 that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I still don't necesssary feel this. Too much pure luck with the serious snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS doesn't look as great as the NAM does but still looks solid for eastern areas with not much going on back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm tossing the gfs...lock up these sref plumes....lol mean snow/high member BOS 12/22 ORH 10/22 HYA 8.5/18 PVC 10.5/19 BDL 6/13 ASH 12/24 I love the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 globals aren't going to "come around" imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This will be a fun event to track regardless of who wins or loses. Someone will win big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 RPM winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 globals aren't going to "come around" imo. Yeah true, this being mainly mesoscale related, the globals aren't going to sniff this out very well, especially for the areas which have the potential to win big. Ride the meso's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Coooollllddd on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This will be a fun event to track regardless of who wins or loses. Someone will win big. Yeah I won't be upset since odds aren't high normally with these. Just want to get some snow down before the big cold. Did you see euro temps after Fridays system? Beyond frigid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Not out yet. GFS still meh for ern MA. Decent for the Cape though. Not even sure the GFS or euro will handle this well. I'm beginning to sway my thoughts more in favor of the meso-scale models 75/25. Maybe not as amped as some of the solutions we're seeing but it's hard to not go in that direction to some degree given the consistency they have shown over the past 24-36h. They really haven't backed down too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 All i want is a few crumbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Will there be a coastal front, with this meso low feature or will low level winds be northerly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah I won't be upset since odds aren't high normally with these. Just want to get some snow down before the big cold. Did you see euro temps after Fridays system? Beyond frigid! I'm beginning to sway my thoughts more in favor of the meso-scale models 75/25. Maybe not as amped as some of the solutions we're seeing but it's hard to not go in that direction to some degree given the consistency they have shown over the past 24-36h. They really haven't backed down too much. Almost time to lean that way too. I still like the globals to get a sense of overall synoptics like Will and Ryan said. And yes Jerry...it will be cold. Love the MJO right now. Feb may actually rock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Will there be a coastal front, with this meso low feature or will low level winds be northerly? Yep. That's what will force the band of S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm a doctor. Take 3/9z srefs and call me in the morning I'm holding you accountable if things go south my kids now expecting snow day Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Almost time to lean that way too. I still like the globals to get a sense of overall synoptics like Will and Ryan said. And yes Jerry...it will be cold. Love the MJO right now. Feb may actually rock? mScott how does it look down towards Plymouth if you had to make a rough conservative call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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