Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah they tend to shift NE with time. This is why I think NE MA/SE NE and extreme S ME will end up doing really well. The NAM already hit them hard, but other guidance should start to hone in on that area. Euro has never seemed to ever be bullish in these setups. I recall the 12/20/07 event it barely gave us 2 tenths of liquid up in the bullseye zone but it ended up being a widspread warning event for NE MA (including BOS) and E/C NH and S ME. Not sure if that is going to be the case here...36-48 hours out for a norlun is still a long time. And it will wiggle around a lot with the max area. Where does that leave the rest of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Some soundings have TT's getting up to about 50! That's pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Where does that leave the rest of SNE? Probably 1-2" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 LOL at the RPM wishful thinking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We don't toss. Right we don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re my euro statement. It was directed at the 1/18 event bad my point was I felt qpf to be the euro Achilles Heal high or low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 LOL at the RPM wishful thinking here. Lol...over an inch of QPF for BOS....even 0.8" near ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Snow growth will probably be ridiculously good. The snow growth region is about 150mb deep and saturated the whole time. i haven't looked at cross sections, but just based on some of the soundings I've seen, I have to image a good chunk of the lift is in the snow growth region. If 15:1 or 18:1 ratios work out...this is 2-4" for mos of CT...with up to 6" possible in the east. I'll be happy with just 2-3". Arctic outbreaks are no fun without snow over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NAM-WRF is much better for relatively steady state mesoscale banding than the gfs and the euro. This is one of it's only uses lol. It performs well in LES (inside about 24 to 36 hours when it can get the synoptics right), which in some respect is quite similar to a NORLUN trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lol...over an inch of QPF for BOS....even 0.8" near ORH NAM is juicy as usual, especially for the same area (although not as far back to the west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Probably 1-2" of fluff.Really? Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Consistency on the NAM ftw. TAN with 0.45" liquid. Don't thing that has wavered in a full day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Can someone post the RPM or a link to access it? How does it look for SW ct/nyc area? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Coastal SNE should have an awesome nowcasting event Mon-Tues... Check out how embedded meso lows in the convergence line enhance forecasted qpf... you can see this with the 2 maxes of qpf at 48h on the 12z Nam... Obviously tough to pinpoint so far in advance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re my euro statement. It was directed at the 1/18 event bad my point was I felt qpf to be the euro Achilles Heal high or low. I thought you meant in general for the season. Thanks for clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Consistency on the NAM ftw. TAN with 0.45" liquid. Don't thing that has wavered in a full day now. Sweet. 3-6"/4-8" down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 someone is going to do well...figuring out where is the hard part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like the NE MA/NH/ME stuff may be associated with the inverted trough and the stuff across RI/ SE MA/CC may be associated with a meso low feature. Just looking at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I have class Tuesday, but if this holds serve through tomorrow I think I'll be staying up for this one, could be the balllssss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 These suck because screw potential is so high. Verbatim, I would be sucking subsidence exahaust after a few inches perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 These suck because screw potential is so high. Verbatim, I would be sucking subsidence exahaust after a few inches perhaps. This is one where one town will get like 8'' while a few towns over barely scrapes past 3''. I hate that. That happened to me one of the first events we had this year. I got about 3'' or 4'' and a few towns like 10-15 minutes south ended up with 9-10'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 the high-res nam smokes cape ann and cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 These suck because screw potential is so high. Verbatim, I would be sucking subsidence exahaust after a few inches perhaps. The non-hydrostatic models are really developing a small and intense cyclone just off KPVC that produces a very strong circulation and convection on the western/northern flank. It seems to be strong enough that it winds up disrupting the NORLUN/Inverted Trough signature farther to the north and west across interior E Mass and S NH. Something to watch as the mesoscale models may be a bit too meso-low happy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like the NE MA/NH/ME stuff may be associated with the inverted trough and the stuff across RI/ SE MA/CC may be associated with a meso low feature. Just looking at the NAM. Yeah see my post above, easier to see with Wunderground winds. You can appreciate the embedded meso-low southeast of the Cape really nicely. I don't have hour 51 winds on Wunderground, but I bet circulation southeast of the Cape is clearer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Go big or go home. Logan might have to be closed due to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The non-hydrostatic models are really developing a small and intense cyclone just off KPVC that produces a very strong circulation and convection on the western/northern flank. It seems to be strong enough that it winds up disrupting the NORLUN/Inverted Trough signature farther to the north and west across interior E Mass and S NH. Something to watch as the mesoscale models may be a bit too meso-low happy here. I sort of buy the meso low..especially with the warm waters. Almost like a latent heat bomb MCV in the summer. But where does it set up? I think Cape and Cape Anne look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Go big or go home. Logan might have to be closed due to heavy snow. We could be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Kevin mentioned this but there could be a several hour period of some pretty impressive CAA winds. Not only is that important b/c of blowing snow but that could make for some fairly dangerous wind chills for anyone outside long enough with exposed skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Just saw a tweet from WBZ Boston Weather mentioning that snow ratios could be as high as 20:1 to 25:1!! That's sick stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I sort of buy the meso low..especially with the warm waters. Almost like a latent heat bomb MCV in the summer. But where does it set up? I think Cape and Cape Anne look good. Yeah I agree we'll see something like it. The RPM and hi res NAM have been dumping just insane QPF with that thing though.... I saw one RPM run get over 3" over Stellwagen Bank! That kind of stuff may be overdone and resulting in some subsidence to the west over coastal eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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