dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like the NAM is about to unload at 42h.Nice weenie band into SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice weenie band into SE NH. Yeah Cstl ne ma and se nh FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah Cstl ne ma and se nh FTW. Not a huge surprise there. I think the fact that the SREFs from 3z to 9z didn't really tick east but ticked north is telling. The NAM seems to like Cape Ann up through Plum Island and up toward KPSM. Looks like less than 0.25" west of ORH and IJD. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Any thoughts on ratios with this? Surface temps obviously ideal for fluff factor...what about snow growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I will take this and run thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Not a huge surprise there. I think the fact that the SREFs from 3z to 9z didn't really tick east but ticked north is telling. The NAM seems to like Cape Ann up through Plum Island and up toward KPSM. Looks like less than 0.25" west of ORH and IJD. Seems reasonable. Yeah and puts me right on the edge too. I could see that area doing well given this set up, but probably another 24 hrs at least before models get a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Not a huge surprise there. I think the fact that the SREFs from 3z to 9z didn't really tick east but ticked north is telling. The NAM seems to like Cape Ann up through Plum Island and up toward KPSM. Looks like less than 0.25" west of ORH and IJD. Seems reasonable. You gonna go 2-4 west of river and 3-6 east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Any thoughts on ratios with this? Surface temps obviously ideal for fluff factor...what about snow growth? Snow growth will probably be ridiculously good. The snow growth region is about 150mb deep and saturated the whole time. i haven't looked at cross sections, but just based on some of the soundings I've seen, I have to image a good chunk of the lift is in the snow growth region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hampton Beach to Kittery FTW. I'll take my 2" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's going to be great to get some snowfall events with pretty awesome ratios for once. Big fluffy flakes coming down in high rates is awesome. Maybe we can tickle 15:1 or 20:1 ratios for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Euro is still a concern IMO. Nice to see everything else held serve overnight, however. The Euro is still a concern IMO. Nice to see everything else held serve overnight, however. Ugh, this quoting thing stinks. Someone the other day (Jerry?) mentioned how the Euro seems to be overdoing the qpf vs reality lately. This is concernin, esp if it is light anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You gonna go 2-4 west of river and 3-6 east? 1-3 west, 2-4 (lollies 5) east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Whatever falls will get blown to high hell in the wind following the storm. Should look like the Northern plains on Tuesday nite and Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah and puts me right on the edge too. I could see that area doing well given this set up, but probably another 24 hrs at least before models get a good idea. I think most of coastal MA will do well. But esp NE MA and coastal NH...that is typical climo in inverted trough/Norlun setups. We usually get on the edge out here for a time We'll have to see how it plays out over the next 12-24 hours. Its always very hard to pin these down even at 24h, never mind 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Snow growth will probably be ridiculously good. The snow growth region is about 150mb deep and saturated the whole time. i haven't looked at cross sections, but just based on some of the soundings I've seen, I have to image a good chunk of the lift is in the snow growth region. Will are you speaking within the heavier areas? I imagine outside of that will do reasonably well based on temps, but won't have the combo of that and great growth. Hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Someone is going to pick up like 3-4'' per hour if you consider the potential for some impressive ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Congrats to Boston and the Cape with .75 liquid equivalent and high ratios. Very nice. Congrats guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Didn't someone post that norlun forecasts often shift northeast as we get closer to event? Amazed how poor the Euro is at seeing this for a high-res model. We meet warning criteria for areas of NE MA / SNH on some of SREFs and NAM solutions, zilch on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 OT a bit but Tim Kelley tweeting about thundersnow in the Greens PF will be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We don't toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I show a high of .979 liquid equiv near Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Rye, NH jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm a doctor. Take 3/9z srefs and call me in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Didn't someone post that norlun forecasts often shift northeast as we get closer to event? Amazed how poor the Euro is at seeing this for a high-res model. We meet warning criteria for areas of NE MA / SNH on some of SREFs and NAM solutions, zilch on Euro. Yeah they tend to shift NE with time. This is why I think NE MA/SE NE and extreme S ME will end up doing really well. The NAM already hit them hard, but other guidance should start to hone in on that area. Euro has never seemed to ever be bullish in these setups. I recall the 12/20/07 event it barely gave us 2 tenths of liquid up in the bullseye zone but it ended up being a widspread warning event for NE MA (including BOS) and E/C NH and S ME. Not sure if that is going to be the case here...36-48 hours out for a norlun is still a long time. And it will wiggle around a lot with the max area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wow this could pretty easily be my biggest event since 10-11, north shore FTW in this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Thundersnow would be a definite possibility. There is a ribbon of some pretty impressive elevated instability that works in. Some pretty decent lapse rates in the 650-550mb range and a spike in the TT's with a pretty low KI/SI values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm a doctor. Take 3/9z srefs and call me in the morning I'm a lawyer (in training). You've all been served and put on notice. It's coming E MA brethren! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Incoming for Wednesday night on 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Climatologically speaking isn't NE MA/SE ME the best area for those type of features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Climatologically speaking isn't NE MA/SE ME the best area for those type of features? Yup....more like coastal NE MA and SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.