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Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)


Typhoon Tip

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Glad you were the one to say this.

Would be great to see a global (euro) come on board.

Inverted troughs often seem to be the models way of reconciling a future development closer to shore when a piece is missing.

 

Wasn't 12/26/2004 supposed to be a Norlun/inverted trough that later trended to a full blown coastal?  I vaguely remember Noyes giving a lecture on Norluns on NECN.

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Someone will do very well in this system most likely. The ratios will probably be extremely good, and whoever gets into one these unpredictable bands will cash in. I never like to try and over analyze inverted trough events more than about 36 hours out because of their inherent uncertainty compared to larger systems. IT does look like though a good chunk of SNE will be in a favorable spot on the 5H trough.

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Minor event from Tolland west. ;)

 

I'd take an inch or two if I should get so lucky. 3.5" for the month as of the 21st is pretty poor.

 

You've had a pretty poor season with only 24.5" considering your elevation and being at the same latitude as Albany. I've had 16.5" here and I live at the bottom of the Hudson Valley right near the City. 

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Wasn't 12/26/2004 supposed to be a Norlun/inverted trough that later trended to a full blown coastal?  I vaguely remember Noyes giving a lecture on Norluns on NECN.

 

I don't recall that being shown in the medium range at all but a semi-inverted feature did hit us in NYC and western LI that night and we got 3-4 inches of snow when only far eastern LI was forecast to get much.

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Scott what are your caution flags with this system

Well we mentioned it all day...these things suck to forecast 2-3 days out. They are mesoscale in nature and tough to predict. Also the Vorticity at 500mb is very strung out. Usually you want a concise vortmax that is more concentrated and defined. That may cause this system to not really get its act together until offshore.

Either way I mentioned not to worry until tomorrow aftn. Get that 12z stuff in.

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The Euro gauntlet drops...   This could be a hiccup run from the others, but the suspicion there is plural, "others"; as in, a lot of meso runs, and even the lesser finite GFS, have trended toward more impact.  The blend of the others is 0-9" from NW-SE.  Yet the Euro is a supposed meso-scaled model operating on a Global scale - in part marketing...

 

I'm not sure whether the Euro is as good in the meso-beta scale as it is in the synoptic for these types of extreme short grid gradient scenarios.  It may be...  

 

At the end of the analysis, we still have a pig load of jet driving over top a very steep frontal slope/gradient. We'll see.

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