Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It is, But you read some here that have high expectations with every model run, Someone gets in the firehose and everyone else is on the outside Does remind me of 2011 Jan storm that gave most of us 2-4 but blew up in SCt, Norwich area had 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 History dictates that the hose will set up for someone between Boston and Portland. (Most likely between Portsmouth and Wells) yea thats climo fav although probably too far North GEFS like Eastern Mass, thats my guess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If 2-4" is your high end expectation then i compare you to a british loyalist during the revolution dream bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 History dictates that the hose will set up for someone between Boston and Portland. (Most likely between Portsmouth and Wells) Midcoast (Rockland) here south is usually the area up this way if they do end up this way, I have been in one a few times over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll take the 18z GFS Ensm. Hits E areas of MA with 0.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If 2-4" is your high end expectation then i compare you to a british loyalist during the revolution dream bigger You are in a good spot I would think. these really are fickle, the fickle finger of fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll take the 18z GFS Ensm. Hits E areas of MA with 0.25"+ It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 yea thats climo fav although probably too far North GEFS like Eastern Mass, thats my guess too. When talking Norluns, it's always best to temper expectations/emotions and wait to see how the banding develops in realtime. At this stage, all we can do is just pick up on trends and hope guidance hints towards its formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll take the 18z GFS Ensm. Hits E areas of MA with 0.25"+ .42? LOl my lat/long on the nam by the way gave me .36 on the border of RI, was off by .06 not that it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll take the 18z GFS Ensm. Hits E areas of MA with 0.25"+ That's a nice RED FLAG. Holding down expectations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 HPC has a 10% chance for 8" or more over Cape Cod, MA for their day three outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 When talking Norluns, it's always best to temper expectations/emotions and wait to see how the banding develops in realtime. At this stage, all we can do is just pick up on trends and hope guidance hints towards its formation. It really is one of those nowcast deals right before the event unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 When talking Norluns, it's always best to temper expectations/emotions and wait to see how the banding develops in realtime. At this stage, all we can do is just pick up on trends and hope guidance hints towards its formation. not sure its a Norlun though, there is a mesolow feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .42? LOl my lat/long on the nam by the way gave me .36 on the border of RI, was off by .06 not that it matters slant sticker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 not sure its a Norlun though, there is a mesolow feature hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 hybrid Nice convergence line, shows up well on the NAM. I would say toss all models until tomorrow then go with mesomodels inside 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 not sure its a Norlun though, there is a mesolow feature A NORLUN can't have a mesolow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .42? LOl my lat/long on the nam by the way gave me .36 on the border of RI, was off by .06 not that it matters It doesn't matter Steve, in the grand scheme. I just wanted to know where you got your numbers from since nothing I saw in text or graphical output was in the .4" area for you. Water under the bridge. At is juncture, I favor eastern areas over western for jackpot snowfalls with this. Fickle nature of this system has me leaning like 70/30 towards the meso models. Maybe the SREFs bust huge but it's tough to not look at them at this point and wonder. Maybe, just maybe, they are on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Also, I think we are seeing both an inverted trough/norlun as well as some sort of meso low traversing the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A NORLUN can't have a mesolow? Not saying that, saying not all the snow is a result of a convergence line. Look at the detailed NAM, there is a trough, a line of convergence that gets further enhanced particularly in the Boston, NE mass area , i.e Ne Mass where the poster was from by a spun up low, the convergence line continue snow towards Messenger and Phil, like Jeffafafa said hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 With east winds and 510 thicknesses ....it will draw in moisture as well...so there will probably be a shield of light snows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I like scooters location for this, just s of boston. I like plymouth county over to messenger to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 With east winds and 510 thicknesses ....it will draw in moisture as well...so there will probably be a shield of light snows too. Yea that is why I said 2-4. I remember the Jan 6 2011 event and Matt Noyes forecast for the CT shore, he nailed it, some spots in SW CT ended up with 15, that was a much more widespread energetic system but man some folks really got slammed, I could see this nailing someone hard. This was Matts forecast. ne wildcard is if a small-scale "mesolow" storm center can develop along the inverted trough near Long Island Sound, which would increase Connecticut snowfall, and is the reason I've highlighted Connecticut as one area of locally maximized precipitation, particularly for New Haven, Middlesex and New London Counties, northwest to Hartford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I like scooters location for this, just s of boston. I like plymouth county over to messenger to Coastal PYM county and the cape are probably gonna be favored for now, but these troughs can set up in places you don't always expect. Im saying Cstl PYM county because NE winds with such cold air aloft are usually great for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yea that is why I said 2-4. I remember the Jan 6 2011 event and Matt Noyes forecast for the CT shore, he nailed it, some spots in SW CT ended up with 15, that was a much more widespread energetic system but man some folks really got slammed, I could see this nailing someone hard. This was Matts forecast. ne wildcard is if a small-scale "mesolow" storm center can develop along the inverted trough near Long Island Sound, which would increase Connecticut snowfall, and is the reason I've highlighted Connecticut as one area of locally maximized precipitation, particularly for New Haven, Middlesex and New London Counties, northwest to Hartford County. Meso lows with these happen a lot. I could see it happening here too. It's part of the reason why meso models may have the right idea bit like I said...the PLACEMENT of the band or low is crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Meso lows with these happen a lot. I could see it happening here too. It's part of the reason why meso models may have the right idea bit like I said...the PLACEMENT of the band or low is crucial. if this happens Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Outside looking inside here. Perhaps a little dusting in the hinterlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I had a mesolow near me for the 12/20/07 NORLUN. Heavy dumpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Outside looking inside here. Perhaps a little dusting in the hinterlands. Nose pressed against the glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I had a mesolow near me for the 12/20/07 NORLUN. Heavy dumpage. 5" here on the outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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