Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Somebody mentioned the Jan 11 special Norluns, seems like that kind of situation, 2-4 region wide with jackpots of 6-10 in favored areas. NE Mass to CC looks best on almost all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Somehow I knew you be right on it with the NAM showing nil, nada , zilch west of the river. I use this OK well Bob asked the same question. As it turns out we were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 BOX MONDAY-TUESDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SPINS UP ACOASTAL LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH ANDLIFT SHOW DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WITHPREFERENCE FOR THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MASS. THIS IS SENSIBLE ASIT TIME WELL FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPERJET SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THESYSTEM WITH COLD AIR DRAINING IN...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE SNOW.SNOWFALL POTENTIALS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY AND 2-5 INCHES SOUTH COAST. IF THIS REMAINS CONSTANT IN THE NEXT COUPLEOF FORECASTS...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN RIAND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.OKXMUCH MORE CHARACTERISTIC WINTER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK MONDAYTHROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALTUESDAY...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY ANDAGAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. STILL BELOW NORMALMAX TEMPS THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGHTHURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TO DROP FURTHER BELOWTHE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AND THESE WIND CHILLS WILL BE REACHING INTOTHE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS AT TIMES DURINGTHIS PERIOD.REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOWWHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MONDAYAFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLYTHURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTSDEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DEFORMATION BANDING SETS UP.GYXINTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS TAKING SHAPE MONDAY WITH A DIGGING L/WVTROF POSITION THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE GT LAKES MONDAY...EJECTINGA S/WV TROF S OF NEW ENGL MON NGT THAT ALLOWS A WK SFC WAVE TODEVELOP AND SPREAD SOME LGT SNW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON NGTINTO TUES WITH SRN AREAS HAVING THE BEST POPS. THE S/WV EXITSRAPIDLY ENEWD BY TUES MRNG BUT THE L/WV TROF BROADENS AND EXPANDSEWD...AND WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR TO ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK...THECOLDEST ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS OVERALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED BY WED MRNG. A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW SETTLESOVER THE AREA THRU LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE CHC OF SNW SHWRS INTHE MTNS OTRW VRY COLD AND DRY. BY FRIDAY A VERY STRONG S/WV DIGSSEWD INTO THE MEAN L/WV POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES AND MODELSDEVELOP AND COASTAL LOW THAT APPROACHES NEW ENGL BY LATE FRI. THISMAY BECOME A MJR STORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIG SNOWFALL ANDCONTINUITY OF POSITION, TRACK AND TIMING WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELYWATCHED FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...AT THIS POINT ITS JUST TOO EARLYTO TELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MEX TEMPS AND GMOSPOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Somehow I knew you be right on it with the NAM showing nil, nada , zilch west of the river. I use this Thanks. That shows the same. 0.25" over E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 OK well Bob asked the same question. As it turns out we were correct. LOL its more than .25 not that it matters. I will point text extract QPF when it comes out at 530, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 LOL its more than .25 not that it matters. I will point text extract QPF when it comes out at 530, who cares. Have at it. Pop in your ASOS. 0.46" for TAN. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Can't you guys look at a map and see for yourself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 LOL its more than .25 not that it matters. I will point text extract QPF when it comes out at 530, who cares. LOL well you did write something like 0.42" before so you were getting awfully specific. My point was that sometimes with that stuff you need to be careful... the closest grid point may be miles away. Doesn't matter all the time but I wanted to see what you were looking at because I was looking at something different. No reason to get crabby or have an attitude about it... sometimes people ask things because they're curious and want to provide additional information... not to call you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 east is best, congrats RI east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 LOL well you did write something like 0.42" before so you were getting awfully specific. My point was that sometimes with that stuff you need to be careful... the closest grid point may be miles away. Doesn't matter all the time but I wanted to see what you were looking at because I was looking at something different. No reason to get crabby or have an attitude about it... sometimes people ask things because they're curious and want to provide additional information... not to call you out. I went by Ewall at 63, look for it, Bobby and you, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS is really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gotta blend the gfs/euro with a little NAM/SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Have at it. Pop in your ASOS. 0.46" for TAN. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Ktan.txt What's the link for the main site? I had it on my comp but not on my laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS is weird in that it keeps precip east of the convergence area....you almost always going to have precip where ne winds meet NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS has pretty much no snow west of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 What's the link for the main site? I had it on my comp but not on my laptop. http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gotta blend the gfs/euro with a little NAM/SREFs Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS says nice dreaming, but no snow for you. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS has pretty much no snow west of the Cape. It's probably too dry - but by the same token I'd be surprised if this is able to produce widespread uniform qpf amounts >.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS is weird in that it keeps precip east of the convergence area....you almost always going to have precip where ne winds meet NW winds. I honestly think we may be dealing with a situation where the coarser globals will have a tougher time resolving this. I agree with Phil that a blend is in order right now. I still favor eastern areas for the heavier snows but a general 1-3" from W to E will be typical imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 No soap on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Something like this isn't really a GFS strongpoint though is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The RPM has a trace over Mt Tolland!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Something like this isn't really a GFS strongpoint though is it Or it could be right and the band is east. Just too early to tell....although the gfs seems a little too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The RPM has a trace over Mt Tolland!!!! Yeah that changed lol. I'm sure it will bounce back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah that changed lol. I'm sure it will bounce back again. Yeah that changed lol. I'm sure it will bounce back again. Well, how about some info on other areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, how about some info on other areas? Sux here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We wont even have an idea at all until tomorrow aftn anyways. And that isn't going to narrow down details. Inv troughs are virtually a nowcasting deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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