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Jan 20-24 storm window opens (Jan 22 potential)


Typhoon Tip

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MONDAY-TUESDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SPINS UP ACOASTAL LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS OF RH ANDLIFT SHOW DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MONDAY NIGHT WITHPREFERENCE FOR THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MASS.  THIS IS SENSIBLE ASIT TIME WELL FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPERJET SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE.  WE WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THESYSTEM WITH COLD AIR DRAINING IN...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE SNOW.SNOWFALL POTENTIALS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY AND 2-5 INCHES SOUTH COAST.  IF THIS REMAINS CONSTANT IN THE NEXT COUPLEOF FORECASTS...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN RIAND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.OKXMUCH MORE CHARACTERISTIC WINTER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK MONDAYTHROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALTUESDAY...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY ANDAGAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. STILL BELOW NORMALMAX TEMPS THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGHTHURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TO DROP FURTHER BELOWTHE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AND THESE WIND CHILLS WILL BE REACHING INTOTHE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS AT TIMES DURINGTHIS PERIOD.REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOWWHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MONDAYAFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLYTHURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTSDEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DEFORMATION BANDING SETS UP.GYXINTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS TAKING SHAPE MONDAY WITH A DIGGING L/WVTROF POSITION THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE GT LAKES MONDAY...EJECTINGA S/WV TROF S OF NEW ENGL MON NGT THAT ALLOWS A WK SFC WAVE TODEVELOP AND SPREAD SOME LGT SNW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON NGTINTO TUES WITH SRN AREAS HAVING THE BEST POPS. THE S/WV EXITSRAPIDLY ENEWD BY TUES MRNG BUT THE L/WV TROF BROADENS AND EXPANDSEWD...AND WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR TO ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK...THECOLDEST ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS OVERALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED BY WED MRNG. A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW SETTLESOVER THE AREA THRU LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE CHC OF SNW SHWRS INTHE MTNS OTRW VRY COLD AND DRY. BY FRIDAY A VERY STRONG S/WV DIGSSEWD INTO THE MEAN L/WV POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES AND MODELSDEVELOP AND COASTAL LOW THAT APPROACHES NEW ENGL BY LATE FRI. THISMAY BECOME A MJR STORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIG SNOWFALL ANDCONTINUITY OF POSITION, TRACK AND TIMING WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELYWATCHED FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...AT THIS POINT ITS JUST TOO EARLYTO TELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MEX TEMPS AND GMOSPOPS.
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LOL its more than .25 not that it matters. I will point text extract QPF when it comes out at 530, who cares.

 

LOL well you did write something like 0.42" before so you were getting awfully specific. 

 

My point was that sometimes with that stuff you need to be careful... the closest grid point may be miles away. Doesn't matter all the time but I wanted to see what you were looking at because I was looking at something different.

 

No reason to get crabby or have an attitude about it... sometimes people ask things because they're curious and want to provide additional information... not to call you out. 

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LOL well you did write something like 0.42" before so you were getting awfully specific. 

 

My point was that sometimes with that stuff you need to be careful... the closest grid point may be miles away. Doesn't matter all the time but I wanted to see what you were looking at because I was looking at something different.

 

No reason to get crabby or have an attitude about it... sometimes people ask things because they're curious and want to provide additional information... not to call you out. 

I went by Ewall at 63, look for it, Bobby and you,

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GFS is weird in that it keeps precip east of the convergence area....you almost always going to have precip where ne winds meet NW winds.

I honestly think we may be dealing with a situation where the coarser globals will have a tougher time resolving this.  I agree with Phil that a blend is in order right now.  I still favor eastern areas for the heavier snows but a general 1-3" from W to E will be typical imo.

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