Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NAM total precip. f84.gif Didn't someone post a nam map that showed a huge hit down in our area? Or was that the earlier nam and this is the new nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 You have to remain vigilant for a let down in some areas. Widespread snow I think is a lock but I could definitely see a relative screwzone somewhere to locations. I'm still on guard until we get some globals more on board. This is really the mesos going nuts and the globals kinda meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Why are you posting like they're gonna get a foot and us nothing? This is a widespread high advisory or low warning event for all of us LOl easy there pard, just reading the Nams output. LOL I said .42 for me, with 12/15-1 ratios, lol sREFS spread the wealth, taking out highs lows, we get like 4-8, best East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Didn't someone post a nam map that showed a huge hit down in our area? Or was that the earlier nam and this is the new nam? 12z NAM was better for our area. Meso low shifted N on the 18z run and that's why higher totals are up in S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Can you post link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130119&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=OWD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.175111654728454&mLON=-71.94567359313965&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Can you post link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130119&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BOS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.55687691770962&mLON=-71.993824609375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Heavy heavy incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 LOl easy there pard, just reading the Nams output. LOL I said .42 for me, with 12/15-1 ratios, lol sREFS spread the wealth, taking out highs lows, we get like 4-8, best East For my own sake, where are you seeing 0.42" for your area? Just looking at the 18z map I posted, it looks like it's a hair over 0.25" for there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 ARWC spits out 19" at BOS 4 member cluster spit out 13-15" another cluster between 4-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Alex, i'll take the SREF's for the win please! All kidding aside, im starting to think that some of you guys in eastern locales might do well with this one. Maybe not warning criteria, but a nice advisory event. however I have a feeling i'm on the outside looking in, however, if I see the EURO or GFS come onboard that changes rapidly. Right now though for me the EURO and the GFS combined are hard to overcome. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 euro ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It's coming. If anything, confidence increased for at least a 2-4/3-6 event in eastern MA, SE NH, coastal ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 When trying to deal with mesoscale features like inv troughs, many times mesoscale models are the way to go.That's not to say they can't have the wrong depiction, but I wouldn't get humg up on global vs mesoscale model QPF. This event is still realtively far out given its complicated nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS PACKAGE FOR MOST OF THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TRACKS AND INTENSITIES OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEMS. LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER THURSDAY AS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SNE BY MON/TUES. THE RELIABLE EC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COASTAL STORM ON MON/TUES WHILE THE GFS HAS FINALLY JUMPED ON BOARD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BITTER COLD AIR WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH FRI AM...AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE TROUGH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED. REGARDLESS LOOKS AS IF A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE EC FOR THE FIRST HALF THEN A EC/HPC COMPROMISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS PARTICULAR TIMEFRAME AS COLD ARCTIC AIR AND COASTAL STORM WILL BE OCCURRING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM OFF OF THE SE WATERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING FOR PRECIP...APPEARS THAT COASTAL STORM WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH LIKE SET-UP. THEREFORE BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES. BECAUSE OF THE ARCTIC CHILL...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. AGAIN STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AMONGST EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE SE COASTAL REGIONS NEARING 3 TO 5 INCHES. SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE COLDEST NIGHT ACROSS SNE. TRENDED MORE TO THE EC ON TEMPS WITH MANY AREAS BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -15F FOR REGIONS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBLE HAZARDS WITHIN THE HWO. WITH SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER SNE IT APPEARS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS HAZARD WILL OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We should prolly go into storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 20:1 raios on the SREFs for BDL. Snow: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130119&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BDL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.8447600560008&mLON=-72.323414453125&mTYP=roadmap QPF: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130119&RT=15&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=BDL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.8447600560008&mLON=-72.323414453125&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There may be really good ratios with this, but I'd hold off on weenieing out over the direct SREF snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Ground blizzard on Tuesday night for some locales? Fluff + cold + wind = Fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We should prolly go into storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .42 in my hood 12/15 -1? The 12km run has 0.25" for you. The 40-km NAM probably is pointing you to a grid point east of where you actually are. For most of CT the 18z NAM is very meh, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Was getting a haircut and just saw srefs snow probs....wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 God I hope this verifies. I've been waiting for a 4+ inch storm for like two years, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Those sref probs of 8+ and 12+ for the majority of us are eye opening. We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Those sref probs of 8+ and 12+ for the majority of us are eye opening. We don't toss 15z sref and 12z nam compromise seems like the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SO here is the deal on the SREFs. This does have potential to put down major snow in a narrow area. I buy the possibility of that if it is modeled as is. There is the key word...if. We really have no idea if that heavy snow will clip srn areas, move through SNE, or bomb in the Gulf of Maine. However, recall the inv trough in SE NH last winter that dropped 10" in about 4-5 hrs. We'll have that potential here..if not more thanks to the warm SST. The key is where this sets up, but if/when it does..it will dump on some area..perhaps parts of SNE...perhaps Stellwagen Bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SO here is the deal on the SREFs. This does have potential to put down major snow in a narrow area. I buy the possibility of that if it is modeled as is. There is the key word...if. We really have no idea if that heavy snow will clip srn areas, move through SNE, or bomb in the Gulf of Maine. However, recall the inv trough in SE NH last winter that dropped 10" in about 4-5 hrs. We'll have that potential here..if not more thanks to the warm SST. The key is where this sets up, but if/when it does..it will dump on some area..perhaps parts of SNE...perhaps Stellwagen Bank. Your like the teacher at recess who takes the ball away and says its time to go back to class in 2nd grade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Your like the teacher at recess who takes the ball away and says its time to go back to class in 2nd grade Well the potential is there, but what's the difference if it's dumping over a pod of whales north of Provincetown.The point is I can buy the high output from some of the members..but no idea where that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Watch the RH fields with this storm. Cold temps are one thing, we got that, but I worry about RH values outside the 495 belt or West of ORH possibly being too low to get anything to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The 12km run has 0.25" for you. The 40-km NAM probably is pointing you to a grid point east of where you actually are. For most of CT the 18z NAM is very meh, unfortunately. Somehow I knew you be right on it with the NAM showing nil, nada , zilch west of the river. I use this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well the potential is there, but what's the difference if it's dumping over a pod of whales north of Provincetown.The point is I can buy the high output from some of the members..but no idea where that sets up. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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