Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Is it too soon to lock 4-8 regionwide ,, La las to 10 if it's really an inverted trough, it's going to jump around like someone said. might not know until the event starts...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 For me: waking up on the right side of the grass, SEX, snow, skiing,beer in that order. Its coming For me it's come to sleeping, sh'tting, snow, salvation.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I would not base anything of the Nam @hr 84 other then there is potential for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I would not base anything of the Nam @hr 84 other then there is potential for snow The NAM will shine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The NAM will shine here That would be a 1st in a long time if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 If only, if only. Why must the NAM get me excited? Why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There is also synoptic lift and decent mid level RH meaning this probably will not be just one narrow band of snow. All I want is a few inches. Your wife feels otherwise...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the text output and TT are in the 50s for TAN. Nice signal for some T-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Your wife feels otherwise...... Ellen Ferrara just deleted her account. Well the NAM is nice, but means sh*t this far out. Lets see what the other guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The NAM will shine here That would be a 1st in a long time if it does Of course I'm kidding. I wouldn't rely on any of its precip outputs right now - but this should be a setup where it does a bit better overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 OT but mini torch building today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Of course I'm kidding. I wouldn't rely on any of its precip outputs right now - but this should be a setup where it does a bit better overall agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the text output and TT are in the 50s for TAN. Nice signal for some T-snow. The difference here is that it's actually very hard to get thundersnow in this set up. If you look at the soundings, it's not a MAUL type sounding where you have elevated CAPE...it's sort of unstable from the ground up...but lacks good elevated CAPE. You can get 4"/hr rates...but I can't recall an inv trough setup that had TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the text output and TT are in the 50s for TAN. Nice signal for some T-snow. The difference here is that it's actually very hard to get thundersnow in this set up. If you look at the soundings, it's not a MAUL type sounding where you have elevated CAPE...it's sort of unstable from the ground up...but lacks good elevated CAPE. You can get 4"/hr rates...but I can't recall an inv trough setup that had TSSN. It would have to be extremely intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The difference here is that it's actually very hard to get thundersnow in this set up. If you look at the soundings, it's not a MAUL type sounding where you have elevated CAPE...it's sort of unstable from the ground up...but lacks good elevated CAPE. You can get 4"/hr rates...but I can't recall an inv trough setup that had TSSN. If we could get that, I would be fine resorting to make thunder noises with my iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It's so funny how some of our great patterns have a fluff bomb early in it or at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We talked about fluff bombs yesterday in fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z NAM total precip. LOL Porked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 inverted troughs are Ray's favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 When is this? If it's a week day, then I'm glad I get skirted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 When is this? If it's a week day, then I'm glad I get skirted. It starts at 6pm tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 When is this? If it's a week day, then I'm glad I get skirted. Skirted with about 6" of snow And suck it up. I look forward to playing bumper cars on 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Skirted with about 6" of snow Well, if it's tmw....bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 here we go with the GFS! Does this run have the data from the sampling flights in it yet? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The difference here is that it's actually very hard to get thundersnow in this set up. If you look at the soundings, it's not a MAUL type sounding where you have elevated CAPE...it's sort of unstable from the ground up...but lacks good elevated CAPE. You can get 4"/hr rates...but I can't recall an inv trough setup that had TSSN. I think the March 1992 event had TSSN in E MA. But yeah, you like to see soem CAPE and also like to see the lift deeper than in a norlun event...the lift can be intense, but its often relatively shallow in these setups. Though the NAM looks a bit more impressive in this one....it does have a bit of a MAUL on the ORH counding around 69-71 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, if it's tmw....bring it. Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, if it's tmw....bring it. LOL, it's monday night into tuesday. Looks like a meso low as I suspected per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Big meeting? GFS is still very light (1-2" fluff), so that is definitely on the table. I start classes again on Tuesday. I could use a snow day though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think the March 1992 event had TSSN in E MA. But yeah, you like to see soem CAPE and also like to see the lift deeper than in a norlun event...the lift can be intense, but its often relatively shallow in these setups. Though the NAM looks a bit more impressive in this one....it does have a bit of a MAUL on the ORH counding around 69-71 hours. Here is the TAN sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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