OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:11 PM, dendrite said: Wasn't there a study where the GFS running off of the Euro init conditions had higher scores than the EC op? yeah a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:11 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah but you'll have good VV in there. You always have good snowgrowth with inv troughs. There is some pretty solid VV's, especially across eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wow...it's 51F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:14 PM, weatherwiz said: There is some pretty solid VV's, especially across eastern MA Inv troughs usually are associated with cold air aloft so snow growth is normally primo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'd probably expect 2-3" or so for ORH metro right now....and then be pleasantly surprised if we pick up more than that. It all depends on how these boundaries set up....there's a brief period where we may clean up when winds are almost due E Monday night...but there's so many weird things that can happen. Coastal MA is def in a more favorable spot, but we can sometimes pick up the edges of the brunt and end up with a respectable total. yeah I agreed...if I was a tv met and they wanted a map...I would put 4-6 for eastern areas and mention higher lollies (and screw zones) possible...2-5 for most of central mass and eastern CT to about BDL...west of there 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:05 PM, NorEastermass128 said: LOL at the RPM. 10-15" E MA. 15-20" extreme NE coastal MA Where is the link for the RPM? Or is a pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:16 PM, CoastalWx said: Inv troughs usually are associated with cold air aloft so snow growth is normally primo. I see. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The NAM is ridiculous - just starting to get a closer look at it. At face value it's like 12"-15" out this way. I'll be happy with a 1/3rd of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 RPM is an in-house WSI model. As far as I know it isn't available.....although wunderground may have it? It's run every three hours and can be highly variable this far out so I really would not put much stock into it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 3:58 PM, dendrite said: The Euro is like T1279 or something which is relatively close in horizontal res to the NAM and it has more vertical levels too. However it just never seems to be able to sniff out the heavy amounts in these NORLUNs very well for whatever reason. EC ens were only slightly wetter than the op, but they both have that max axis just offshore of NE MA. Even though the Euro has a higher resolution than the GFS it's still a global model. It has different convective parametrization schemes than a mesoscale model and is also hydrostatic.... so while the higher resolution helps for an intrinsically mesoscale (and convective, you could say) phenomenon it may not be of much use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said: RPM is an in-house WSI model. As far as I know it isn't available.....although wunderground may have it? It's run every three hours and can be highly variable this far out so I really would not put much stock into it right now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:17 PM, dryslot said: LOL at the RPM. 10-15" E MA. 15-20" extreme NE coastal MA Where is the link for the RPM? Or is a pay site It's a wsi product. Scooter would probably know but I assume its run off the WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:09 PM, CT Blizz said: It's a 3-6 type event east of 1-91 with 2-4 west of that..not a diffcult forecast We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:20 PM, CT Rain said: The Euro is like T1279 or something which is relatively close in horizontal res to the NAM and it has more vertical levels too. However it just never seems to be able to sniff out the heavy amounts in these NORLUNs very well for whatever reason. EC ens were only slightly wetter than the op, but they both have that max axis just offshore of NE MA. Even though the Euro has a higher resolution than the GFS it's still a global model. It has different convective parametrization schemes than a mesoscale model and is also hydrostatic.... so while the higher resolution helps for an intrinsically mesoscale (and convective, you could say) phenomenon it may not be of much use. The hydrostatic issue is key with these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:20 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: It's a wsi product. Scooter would probably know but I assume its run off the WRF. Yeah that's what he said, Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:20 PM, CT Rain said: We toss. I seriously hope you're not gonna issue a 1-2 statewide forecast tonight lol..knowing you though I can see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:00 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: Out ahead of this yes. Good setup for SW flow to give some snow with very cold low levelsThat also is true for coastal CT and RI. Some enhanced numbers in a West to East axis. Still have a 2-4 region wide feel with the very lucky warning levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:23 PM, CT Blizz said: We toss. I seriously hope you're not gonna issue a 1-2 statewide forecast tonight lol..knowing you though I can see it Maybe he'll go C-2" instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:23 PM, CT Blizz said: I seriously hope you're not gonna issue a 1-2 statewide forecast tonight lol..knowing you though I can see it 2-4'' extreme eastern CT and maybe 1-3'' rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyone with access to the RPM, what does it show for SW CT? Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:23 PM, CT Blizz said: I seriously hope you're not gonna issue a 1-2 statewide forecast tonight lol..knowing you though I can see it Ray could potentially take a big bite out of your lead if this plays out just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What's with the RPM fetish all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:26 PM, weatherwiz said: What's with the RPM fetish all of a sudden? It tends to provide some extreme weenie solutions. 15" at BOS last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:25 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: Maybe he'll go C-2" instead Whispy cirrus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:27 PM, NorEastermass128 said: It tends to provide some extreme weenie solutions. 15" at BOS last run. Well that explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:21 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: The hydrostatic issue is key with these Yup. As always, though, the models are going to struggle with the placement. We know the potential given the forcing and low static stability now the issue is where does it set up. York County Maine or Plymouth County Mass? The lingering question for me is whether there's enough synoptic forcing and inflow off the ocean back this way to produce a widespread accumulating snow or is it just light crap before it blossoms to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 4:27 PM, ETauntonMA said: Whispy cirrus? 5,000 to 10,000 feet of cirrus is my forecast. I honestly have no idea what I'll put out tonight. Will wait for entire 12z suite but I'll probably get to work early to start working on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Up to 49F with the wind cranking to near 30...I hope we get enough snow to at least safely cover everything up again because the snow pack (of 2") is being completely destroyed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 as Coastalwx said, take this with a grain of salt...clearly a spaz run, but pretty nice for the moment this is the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm not totally sure how it's initialized...kind of forget. I think it's based off a few things with gfs and rap...as well as current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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