CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:08 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah that changed lol. I'm sure it will bounce back again. It's weird to see the SREF soooo amped and most globals less than a tenth of an inch for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 EC ens mean is fairly dry too. Widespread 0.05" with a little more on the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:13 PM, CT Rain said: It's weird to see the SREF soooo amped and most globals less than a tenth of an inch for most of SNE. I thought I remember that for the se nh event too, last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:13 PM, CoastalWx said: We wont even have an idea at all until tomorrow aftn anyways. And that isn't going to narrow down details. Inv troughs are virtually a nowcasting deal. Exactly. My expecations are some flakes to hopefully an inch or two. If more than that falls great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:15 PM, CoastalWx said: I thought I remember that for the se nh event too, last year. Yeah you're probably right. Probably going to downplay quite a bit at 6. Odds of something big are still pretty low I think. I'd like to see something besides the NAM/SREFs amped up. GGEM, Ukie, something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 No clue. INVT is a now cast toss all models. Energy going overhead squeezes out 2-4 with someone getting very very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:22 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah you're probably right. Probably going to downplay quite a bit at 6. Odds of something big are still pretty low I think. I'd like to see something besides the NAM/SREFs amped up. GGEM, Ukie, something! I agree...globals will at least hint at it. Discouraging to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:15 PM, CoastalWx said: I thought I remember that for the se nh event too, last year.I buy some of the juicier meso model output, but the question will be where the sfc convergence zone sets up. I'll take the globals at this point for the vort track and the general inv trough placement. A blend like Phil said is probably the way to go. It'd be nice to see a little more robustness from a global soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:23 PM, CoastalWx said: I agree...globals will at least hint at it. Discouraging to see that. GEFS members are somewhat amped up though. Just a little odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 weenie hour Tuesday AM on the 18z NAM for kbos, notice the TSSN: HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis 63 01/22 09Z 30 29 181 5 0.06 0.02 513 516 -10.5 -35.1 1003 98 TSSN 001BKN197 0.6 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:26 PM, dendrite said: I buy some of the juicier meso model output, but the question will be where the sfc convergence zone sets up. I'll take the globals at this point for the vort track and the general inv trough placement. A blend like Phil said is probably the way to go. It'd be nice to see a little more robustness from a global soon though. Yeah that's the main issue right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I've been observing the posts and for you younger folks, while KURO may be right, it's a long shot. These events tend to disappoint 80% of the land mass and delight 20. Hope to be in the 20 but expectations are relatively low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Wasn't the Ukie a decent hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:36 PM, CT Blizz said: Wasn't the Ukie a decent hit? A few inches from the 12z run yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:36 PM, CT Blizz said: Wasn't the Ukie a decent hit? On 1/19/2013 at 10:37 PM, weathafella said: A few inches from the 12z run yes. I saw less than 0.1" QPF region-wide on the Ukie from the meteocentre site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:22 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah you're probably right. Probably going to downplay quite a bit at 6. Odds of something big are still pretty low I think. I'd like to see something besides the NAM/SREFs amped up. GGEM, Ukie, something! IIRC, the GFS wasn't too keen on 1/7/11 but it definitely had at least like a .10-.25" QPF signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 My guess is mt tolland gets a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 10:41 PM, H2Otown_WX said: IIRC, the GFS wasn't too keen on 1/7/11 but it definitely had at least like a .10-.25" QPF signal. Yeah I think you're right. I'm not being a weenie slayer but I'd really like to see like a solid 0.1-0.25" thump on the globals with the meso models going wild. Having some of the globals barely dropping measurable back here doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 not bad at this range http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zp72f096.html On 1/19/2013 at 10:44 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah I think you're right. I'm not being a weenie slayer but I'd really like to see like a solid 0.1-0.25" thump on the globals with the meso models going wild. Having some of the globals barely dropping measurable back here doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 My best guess is that the low pressure center ends up further northwest than currently modeled. Strong SST and air temp differentials support an intense baroclinic boundary off the coast and the Gulf Stream produces a great breeding ground for intense precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The gulf stream lover is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 G.S fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is prob wide spread 1-2 w some weenie lollis of 7 or so, if were lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 11:07 PM, cpick79 said: This is prob wide spread 1-2 w some weenie lollis of 7 or so, if were lucky if were lucky its alot more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I find it hard to believe jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 11:33 PM, cpick79 said: I find it hard to believe jay potential is there for 24 hours with ultra high ratios, intense snow at some location to be named Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/19/2013 at 11:07 PM, cpick79 said: This is prob wide spread 1-2 w some weenie lollis of 7 or so, if were lucky I can see some major disappointment for some here that are getting all fired up, These tend to screw more then favor, Expectations should be held in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 12:00 AM, dryslot said: I can see some major disappointment for some here that are getting all fired up, These tend to screw more then favor, Expectations should be held in checkIt's meh really 2-4 some one gets lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 12:03 AM, Ginxy said: It's meh really 2-4 some one gets lucky It is, But you read some here that have high expectations with every model run, Someone gets in the firehose and everyone else is on the outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 On 1/20/2013 at 12:09 AM, dryslot said: It is, But you read some here that have high expectations with every model run, Someone gets in the firehose and everyone else is on the outside History dictates that the hose will set up for someone between Boston and Portland. (Most likely between Portsmouth and Wells) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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