Harry Perry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Has to do with ratios, model biases etc. Models are not the greatest with Lake effect snow. Then you have the unknown with a possible I94 band setting up which if it does the totals here could be alot higher. See the winter of 06-07 i think it was either late Jan or early Feb when we had one of those I94 bands roll in and dropped almost a foot on the south side of town ( much less on north side of BC ) which no model had predicted. That's true. Just surprising difference between AFOs even after coordination. Harry, where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Big flakes coming down at Copper Harbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've got about two inches here with squalls picking up in intensity. Grass is almost completely gone. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's true. Just surprising difference between AFOs even after coordination. Harry, where are you located? Very near downtown close to the Justice complex. And you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Been getting some light snow showers continuous for last 40-50 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This morning's run of IWX"s WRF continues to show lots of snow for some members. At 20:1, Blackrock is looking at a foot, weatherbo at least 2 feet, and where Jonger is in the UP ?? ft. by Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This morning's run of IWX"s WRF continues to show lots of snow for some members. At 20:1, Blackrock is looking at a foot, weatherbo at least 2 feet, and where Jonger is in the UP ?? ft. by Wednesday evening. d01_runtotal84_syn.png Interesting.. That would be around 8" inches here. Brings the .4 line almost to Albion which would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I will be happy with a foot of snow...and then more to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I will be happy with a foot of snow...and then more to come! What kind of flakes sizes are you getting today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What kind of flakes sizes are you getting today? About a quarter inch sized flakes on average, with some 1/3" size mixed in....definitely bigger than pixie dust that takes forever to accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 About a quarter inch sized flakes on average, with some 1/3" size mixed in....definitely bigger than pixie dust that takes forever to accum. Wait until tonight when the next wave moves in with better moisture and raising inversion heights, flake size will be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Just a smidgeon dusting here so far with ample grass and parking lots showing. Will see if that short wave can help or if it will be mainly a west/nw wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wait until tonight when the next wave moves in with better moisture and raising inversion heights, flake size will be much better. Definitely! It has been snowing pretty good all day (with these somewhat smaller flakes)...in some ways, I'm surprised we have managed a couple inches...but, no complaints here! It's probably the fluff factor. Currently, 14 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Very near downtown close to the Justice complex. And you? Wow! What are the odds of us both having the name Harry and living in Battle Creek AND have a lot of interest in meteorology?? I live at the intersection of B Drive North and 11 Mile road, about 2 miles South of the Casino/I-94. Nice to meet you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wow! What are the odds of us both having the name Harry and living in Battle Creek AND have a lot of interest in meteorology?? I live at the intersection of B Drive North and 11 Mile road, about 2 miles South of the Casino/I-94. Nice to meet you. Pretty slim i think.. lol There is another guy from BC, and one from Marshal that posts here as well. Was another but he moved up north. Actually was 2. The other ( storm chaser ) also moved north to Mt Pleasant i do believe for school but he comes back to visit i do believe? Nice to meet you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Pretty slim i think.. lol There is another guy from BC, and one from Marshal that posts here as well. Was another but he moved up north. Actually was 2. The other ( storm chaser ) also moved north to Mt Pleasant i do believe for school but he comes back to visit i do believe? Nice to meet you as well. Haha I'm just west of Ceresco. I'm also a Marshall Township firefighter so I spend a lot of time in the Marshall area as well as Battle Creek where my mother lives. It'll be nice to share our spin on things both from BC and both named Harry! Haha. The fella you're talking about that moved up to Mt. Pleasant is a friend of mine, L.B. LaForce. We both went to Harper Creek. Small world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's a side view with a quarter for reference. This is just to the west of Paradise, we are heading to the Sault in a few minutes.... 9 degrees outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lake effect drying up. Looks like it will start back up and really get going after daybreak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lake effect drying up. Looks like it will start back up and really get going after daybreak tomorrow. Per GRR it is supposed to fire back up after 7pm. Models show it happening closer to midnight.. LES is always fickle it seems. Either way tomorrow ( after midnight tonight ) looks to be the main show. Shouldn't be much till then. Hoping the best comes through during the day as i hate to sleep through it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Per GRR it is supposed to fire back up after 7pm. Models show it happening closer to midnight.. LES is always fickle it seems. Either way tomorrow ( after midnight tonight ) looks to be the main show. Shouldn't be much till then. Hoping the best comes through during the day as i hate to sleep through it. lol lol I know what you mean. I try not to do this much, but I'm beginning to get a little excited for inland areas such as Hastings, Grand Rapids, Portage and Battle Creek... The wind direction is literally almost due West. If this LES happens on an entirely west flow, we could really be dealing with some heavy prolonged snow. The models don't show it, but a I-94 convergence band could set up dropping 6" as far east as Marshall! That would be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GRR put out this snowfall map a little while ago. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=91681&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 uploadfromtaptalk1358718918414.jpg That's a side view with a quarter for reference. This is just to the west of Paradise, we are heading to the Sault in a few minutes.... 9 degrees outside. Nice! JEALOUS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The lake is starting to wake up tonight. Hopefully it will lead to some nice LES over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anyone think the winds shift to WSW tomorrow ahead of the shortwave. Latest WRF have been hinting at it, wondering if anyone has any thoughts on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anyone think the winds shift to WSW tomorrow ahead of the shortwave. Latest WRF have been hinting at it, wondering if anyone has any thoughts on it? It should for a time...although it might not be quite SW enough to drive the lake effect into Buffalo itself...I'd favor the south towns and especially ski-county near the southeastern shoreline.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It should for a time...although it might not be quite SW enough to drive the lake effect into Buffalo itself...I'd favor the south towns and especially ski-county near the southeastern shoreline.. Alright Thanks. I am about 14 miles south of Metro so hopefully I get a few inches out of it. From history though the band nearly always goes farther north in these type of scenarios. Not sure if its thermal troughing or something but I'd say about 75% of the time it drifts 5-6 miles north of predicted. Majority of time becomes a now casting event around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Alright Thanks. I am about 14 miles south of Metro so hopefully I get a few inches out of it. From history though the band nearly always goes farther north in these type of scenarios. Not sure if its thermal troughing or something but I'd say about 75% of the time it drifts 5-6 miles north of predicted. Majority of time becomes a now casting event around this area. It'll certainly be close. With a WSW flow the convergence certainly is focused towards the southern shoreline and then driving inland from there...although it may get close to you for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Not looking good for a few especially along I94. The flow has gone almost due west and even bending towards wsw inland. The warnings have all been dropped. Just have advisories. Still have a advisory here but it is only for 1-3 ( was 3-6 ) and thus why we still have the advisory is beyond me. Snowfall totals cut in half or more in some cases across the whole area. Radar looks like crap and appears to wanna keep everything just north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I wish someone at this office would make up their mind. Earlier when i posted above ( right after all was updated ) they had 2 inches today and a inch tonight with chance pops the rest of the week. Has been updated AGAIN and the same for today and tonight but now likely pops for tomorrow 60%, Tomorrow night and Wed 70%, and Thursday 60%.. However the zone forecast has been beefed back up to 2-3 for today and a inch tonight and another inch tomorrow.. Was 1-3. sheesh And yeah i may have jumped the gun a little. After peeking at SPC mesoscale analysis I see the backing flow towards the wsw appears to be brief. Starting to turn back west to even slight wnw. HOPEFULLY it sticks and stays wnw. STILL downgrades have been made. Have lost this morning which by now everything was supposed to be ripping. Unsure if we can make it up today? Guess we will see. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah, I'm less than enthused by this under-performing. This LES event was literally nearly a "slam-dunk" event for nearly everyone. I did find this interesting, with the afternoon update yesterday GRR did not mention any delay or reason why the snow would begin/become heavy after daybreak today. They instead said that snow would become heavy after 7PM (last night) Now for the fun part!! I read many AFDs daily, particularly IWX, DTX, APX, LOT... Etc. Northern Indiana mentioned that the atmosphere woulnt be primed for the snow to become heavy until after daybreak today, then they listed why. Detroit's forecast discussion mentioned the same, they said that snow would not begin until later in the morning hours after 12 Z Monday. Well... Why didn't GRR mention ANYTHING about this? Just my two cents. People thought I was crazy calling for 1.5" to 2.5" here in BC.. Sounds much more realistic to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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