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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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Looks like the epic front is supposed to come through... I'm staring at lake superior right now... supposed to be 50mph gusts.

. I'm staring at brown grass and a old rotting snow pile.

I just decided to stay through Monday now..... No desire to return to the snowless hell.

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Both. Just compare it to an NWS map.

 

I've noticed the color coding by EC doesn't extend to very many colors, unlike NOAA.

 

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With regard to the snowfall water eq. map above. Nice little bullseye in NE Ohio too.

Looks like a 0.6" spot over Blackrock.

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IWX's WRF shows that you are in the jackpot area with over 2' by early Wednesday.

 

attachicon.gifd01_runtotal84_syn.png

Yep...and 2 feet may even be an underestimation of the upcoming snowfall in Grand Marais, if you take that liquid equivalent map verbatim.  Ratios could be close to 20:1, which means the 2" of liquid would translate to 40" of snow.  One thing against high ratios would be extremely cold temps and high winds...but either way, it will be nice and wintry. :)

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I don't believe it's lake effect but the lake is definitely playing a role. Expect bands to set up shortly.

Classic strong cold front lake enhanced band. Check out the convergence along that boundary. Pouring snow here in Gaylord now. Had 1" fall in 12 minutes at my place earlier this evening with the upper wave passage, along with cloud to ground lightning! Don't see that too often. It's nice to see more normal January conditions returning to northern Michigan. It's been way too long.

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Saginaw is gusting to 49kts with the frontal passage! Reporting light snow with a 1 mile visibility with west winds 23kts gusting to 49kts as of 11:53pm.

 

Edit: KCFS (Tuscola area airport?) just came in with west winds 23 knots gusting to 53 knots as of 12:13am...with moderate snow and half mile visibilities. Quite the frontal passage!

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I have no idea how much snow fell last night. My net is out (imagine that), so surfing off my phone. I can best guess 4" maybe. Has to be a very blown around foot of snow. Garage drifted 4 ft up when I opened it. Apx hinted at the possibility of a foot plus Monday/Monday night, with 3-5 poss before then. LE is such a wild card, you never know.

Was out on my snow machine last night but with the visibility near zero at times, it was hard to see. When wind relaxes some today, I'll go back out.

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I have no idea how much snow fell last night. My net is out (imagine that), so surfing off my phone. I can best guess 4" maybe. Has to be a very blown around foot of snow. Garage drifted 4 ft up when I opened it. Apx hinted at the possibility of a foot plus Monday/Monday night, with 3-5 poss before then. LE is such a wild card, you never know.

Was out on my snow machine last night but with the visibility near zero at times, it was hard to see. When wind relaxes some today, I'll go back out.

 

I'd have to imagine you will end up with some crazy drifting there with all the snow coming/on the ground with this wind.

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IWX getting frisky with snow totals IMO.

IWX weather story is calling for widespread 2-5" with a west-east oriented swath of 5-8" from Benton harbor to Hillsdale and north (map cuts it off).

Grand Rapids snow maps are showing 3-5" from Benton Harbor ENE to Hastings with 1-4" surrounding that.

Does anyone know why the NWS is forecasting snow totals well above guidance? Guidance would bring 1.5" to 2.5" to Battle Creek, 2.0 to 3.5" to GRR... NWS has exponential 4.5" between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday...

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IWX getting frisky with snow totals IMO.

IWX weather story is calling for widespread 2-5" with a west-east oriented swath of 5-8" from Benton harbor to Hillsdale and north (map cuts it off).

Grand Rapids snow maps are showing 3-5" from Benton Harbor ENE to Hastings with 1-4" surrounding that.

Does anyone know why the NWS is forecasting snow totals well above guidance? Guidance would bring 1.5" to 2.5" to Battle Creek, 2.0 to 3.5" to GRR... NWS has exponential 4.5" between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday...

 

Has to do with ratios, model biases etc. Models are not the greatest with Lake effect snow. Then you have the unknown with a possible I94 band setting up which if it does the totals here could be alot higher. See the winter of 06-07 i think it was either late Jan or early Feb when we had one of those I94 bands roll in and dropped almost a foot on the south side of town ( much less on north side of BC ) which no model had predicted.

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