RogueWaves Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 4am Saturday morning the Jonger express pulls out for Newberry... Expecting 6-12 more while there. Good Luck and enjoy it UP there! A bit jealous, but I did kinda chase last Marches big dump in NWMI, so I'm still having to get by on fond memories of what serious snowfall looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't think I have seen so much non-stop action for northern lakes in awhile... Could be some historic depth after a horrific start on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't think I have seen so much non-stop action for northern lakes in awhile... Could be some historic depth after a horrific start on the season. After today will have 9" and a very good potential of 8-12" more by monday. Interested mostly in sat even/sunday morning and thru the day. APX is issueing headlines in the afternoon package. You're going to get blasted up there sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't think I have seen so much non-stop action for northern lakes in awhile... Could be some historic depth after a horrific start on the season. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 potential does exist to have 18" depths in nw lower and well over 2 ft in the UP, but historic.... yeah lol kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 lol Houghton to Munising corridor could be looking at 150 inches of LES and synoptic in a 3 week period. Some of these areas have received 40 inches in the past week... Obviously there is settling, but some nice depth is on the way after a horrific start like I mentioned previously. Meanwhile in concrete hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Here are some photo's I took while being up-north this week. Total Snowfall this week was 10" So relaxing walking through the fields during a snowfall Leelanau County beauty LES in Traverse City Driving through a nice Intense snow squall A look from my cabin I stayed in Another intense band on M-72 near Turtle Creek Casino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Nice pics dmc!!! Its not the deep snow you expect there this time of year, but it shows that a torch is no match for Lake Michigan. Both our area and the area in the photos started January with similar snow depths (maybe even more in SE MI actually)....the torch came and gave bare ground for all...and now while we still have bare ground the Lake has turned winter back on immediately up there. I am actually getting kind of excited for lake effect potential here Mon-Tue (especially since the clipper train seems to have mostly derailed). Won't be anything major, but the WNW flow, instability of Lake MI, and cold temps should make for some interesting squalls, and DTX says I-94 corridor is favored (so basically a BTL-JXN-ARB-DTW line). Monday evening could be snow squalls with temps in the single digits. Don't see that every day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We could make up lost ground rather quickly here. Near ideal conditions are being modeled, but still a few days out, so I won't get overly worked up until I see intense bands and heavy snow falling out my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Just wanted to add flash freeze concerns to the mix for Saturday night (WI/MI/IL/IN/OH) and Sunday morning (ON/NY/nwPA) as the cold front will be very sharp, temps likely to fall from near 35 F to 15-20 F in 2-3h with heavy squalls added, could be very hazardous driving conditions in many areas (briefly outside of snow belts, long duration in snow belts). Have mentioned risk of very heavy squalls elsewhere with 20-30 inch potential, think this may apply in particular to southern Georgian Bay and Lake Huron snow belts in Ontario, but would suggest local 12-15" potential in u.p. MI and Lake Michigan snow belt, nw PA and w NY. Thunder-snow potential is good, contrast will be extreme and it's middle of daytime for squall bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 My early guess for GRR area.. Sunday is questionable around here atleast but should start to ramp up Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday looks to offer the best potential for some decent LES in these parts. I have noticed that with each passing day the models are going a bit higher with QPF for the LES event. Slow but steady trend up works for me. Looking like a few spots ( somewhere in Van Buren, Ottawa, Allegan, Mason, Kalamazoo, s/w Kent.. ) may pick up 12+ by the time all is said and done on Wed/Thurs. With up to 6+ possible in Muskegon, rest of Kent, Oceana, Barry, W.Calhoun and W.Newaygo.. And 1/2 inch up to perhaps 5 for everywhere else. Obviously if we get a i94/i96 band to set up then totals under the band could end up alot higher much further inland/east towards Jackson, Lansing, and parts of the Detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I hope you are right. Remember it is a early guess so further adjustments could be needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 0z GFS looks good for lake effect snow in Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 As I alluded to earlier, might as well extend this thread dates to Jan 23rd. Tons of LES coming for the belts, and COLD les at that..and hopefully some accums for us outside the belts as well. To LES experts...instability should overcome temps being TOO cold, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 My early guess for GRR area.. Sunday is questionable around here atleast but should start to ramp up Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday looks to offer the best potential for some decent LES in these parts. I have noticed that with each passing day the models are going a bit higher with QPF for the LES event. Slow but steady trend up works for me. Looking like a few spots ( somewhere in Van Buren, Ottawa, Allegan, Mason, Kalamazoo, s/w Kent.. ) may pick up 12+ by the time all is said and done on Wed/Thurs. With up to 6+ possible in Muskegon, rest of Kent, Oceana, Barry, W.Calhoun and W.Newaygo.. And 1/2 inch up to perhaps 5 for everywhere else. Obviously if we get a i94/i96 band to set up then totals under the band could end up alot higher much further inland/east towards Jackson, Lansing, and parts of the Detroit area. Great call, Harry. However, This is when I think there should be separation in counties, as in split a county when forecasting. Southwest Muskegon county, the most populated part, often gets much more snow than the eastern parts in this type of setup. I think this area should be included in the 12+ zone. Norton Shores, Fruitport, Muskegon will most likely get much more snow than Ravenna, Wolf Lake, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Great call, Harry. However, This is when I think there should be separation in counties, as in split a county when forecasting. Southwest Muskegon county, the most populated part, often gets much more snow than the eastern parts in this type of setup. I think this area should be included in the 12+ zone. Norton Shores, Fruitport, Muskegon will most likely get much more snow than Ravenna, Wolf Lake, etc... FWIW the 00z GFS looks to briefly bring the flow due west. That should benefit you. IF that is the case then yeah the 12+ potential will get up into that area. Anyways as said it was just a early guess. I'll try and do a final call tomorrow night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 FWIW the 00z GFS looks to briefly bring the flow due west. That should benefit you. IF that is the case then yeah the 12+ potential will get up into that area. Anyways as said it was just a early guess. I'll try and do a final call tomorrow night.. Good early guess. That sounds good about the westerly flow. Perhaps the event will end up similar to this one? (maybe spread out to the east more) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowmap/?image=SnowMap20081206_0500.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Good early guess. That sounds good about the westerly flow. Perhaps the event will end up similar to this one? (maybe spread out to the east more) http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowmap/?image=SnowMap20081206_0500.png That was one of those nnw/nw flow events that hugged the coast and finally came in and dropped a few inches inland if i recall correctly? This would be closer.. This was a solid west flow event though. Got some help though via a blizzard that had hit the Plains. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowmap/?image=SnowMap20091209_0000.png'>http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowmap/?image=SnowMap20091209_0000.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That was one of those nnw/nw flow events that hugged the coast and finally came in and dropped a few inches inland if i recall correctly? This would be closer.. This was a solid west flow event though. Got some help though via a blizzard that had hit the Plains. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/snowmap/?image=SnowMap20091209_0000.png That was a bizarre event. It surely didn't look like we got over a foot. I theorized that the STRONG winds blew the actaul snow on the ground away to Grand Rapids, Big Rapids, etc...leading to their high totals. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking good...even for you, Harry. The GFS looks particularly good for you. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That was a bizarre event. It surely didn't look like we got over a foot. I theorized that the STRONG winds blew the actaul snow on the ground away to Grand Rapids, Big Rapids, etc...leading to their high totals. Haha Has more to do with more dominate bands setting up which usually rob the rest of the area outside of those bands. When the winds are strong you will see it widespread across the whole area like that but not with those kinds of totals. Oh and yeah that is pretty impressive for the GFS which usually does not pick up on it/LES as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 As I alluded to earlier, might as well extend this thread dates to Jan 23rd. Tons of LES coming for the belts, and COLD les at that..and hopefully some accums for us outside the belts as well. To LES experts...instability should overcome temps being TOO cold, right? How do I edit the subject? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 How do I edit the subject? Edit your first post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 6z NAM spitting out over 0.25" of QPF as far inland as where I'm situated. This setup could yield some of the best NW flow LES I've seen since December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Winter Storm Watch up for the lake effect in western MI. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI1227 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071-072-200130-/O.CON.KGRR.WS.A.0001.130121T0000Z-130121T2200Z/MASON-LAKE-OCEANA-MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...HART...MUSKEGON...JENISON...HOLLAND...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO1227 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENINGTHROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.IMPACTS... * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DEVELOPING SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW SQUALLS. * SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER COMMUTE TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 6z NAM spitting out over 0.25" of QPF as far inland as where I'm situated. This setup could yield some of the best NW flow LES I've seen since December 2010. Hey, I know it's a longshot, but do you think Hamilton could cash in on a little bit of LES as well? I've only just moved to the city but from my understanding NW flows aren't really the ideal set-up for lake-effect. I would be happy with some daytime flurries just to fill the air, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I see the lake effect snow squall warnings and watches are up in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hey, I know it's a longshot, but do you think Hamilton could cash in on a little bit of LES as well? I've only just moved to the city but from my understanding NW flows aren't really the ideal set-up for lake-effect. I would be happy with some daytime flurries just to fill the air, at least. Yeah you're in the game. Not a real share the wealth event as it's currently being modeled as a fairly narrow band but where it exactly sets up is too early to determine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I see the lake effect snow squall warnings and watches are up in Ontario. Hideous maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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