dmc76 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Kalkaska about 1- 1.5" just light snow now. Can still some grass. As soon as I hit reply....I look up and its moderate snow! Gotta love LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Easily 8-12 in lake enhanced areas for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Easily 8-12 in lake enhanced areas for Saturday. Hope you're right! Snow is bouncing between light and moderate. Beautiful fluff tho. Mancelona now has nearly 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Easily 8-12 in lake enhanced areas for Saturday. Hope you're right! Snow is bouncing between light and moderate. Beautiful fluff tho. Mancelona now has nearly 6" It's amazing how the dbz reflections from LES are so deceiving... Those minimal returns during a synoptic event would be boarderline flurries.... Not during LES events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 AIRMASS IS JUST PERFECT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE DENDRITES...WITH THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER TEMP STUCK SQUARELY BETWEEN THE -12C TO-18C ISOTHERMS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ISEXTREMELY FLUFFY AND HAS EASILY PILED UP...WITH RADAR AND SPOTTERREPORTS HINTING AT 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO It's amazing how the dbz reflections from LES are so deceiving... Those minimal returns during a synoptic event would be boarderline flurries.... Not during LES events. Definitely! Sometimes it's snowing here and no return on radar at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 AIRMASS IS JUST PERFECT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE DENDRITES... WITH THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER TEMP STUCK SQUARELY BETWEEN THE -12C TO -18C ISOTHERMS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN IS EXTREMELY FLUFFY AND HAS EASILY PILED UP...WITH RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS HINTING AT 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO It's amazing how the dbz reflections from LES are so deceiving... Those minimal returns during a synoptic event would be boarderline flurries.... Not during LES events. Definitely! Sometimes it's snowing here and no return on radar at all. I have been getting LES flurries here all morning... Nothing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The GFS seems pretty consistent on at least the *potential* for a solid LES event for western Michigan around D7. Here's a sounding from between Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am highly curious into what this pattern can bring for the lakes. Abnormally warm lakes, coldest air of the season, shortwave/clippers every few days....It looks like an ideal scenario for a broad brush LES pattern to hit a little bit of everyone. Buffalo has only had one LES event this season, usually at this time we have around 5-10 and the lake is usually well on its way to freezing not so much this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am highly curious into what this pattern can bring for the lakes. Abnormally warm lakes, coldest air of the season, shortwave/clippers every few days....It looks like an ideal scenario for a broad brush LES pattern to hit a little bit of everyone. Buffalo has only had one LES event this season, usually at this time we have around 5-10 and the lake is usually well on its way to freezing not so much this year. I don't think the models know what to do with this setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 1/4" inch of snow was all we could muster over here from the big lake. I sure hope we can get some real lake effect later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 1/4" inch of snow was all we could muster over here from the big lake. I sure hope we can get some real lake effect later this week. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Same here I live in northern Spring Lake Township. 5 minutes up the road in Norton Shores/Muskegon there was barely anything! Fortunately, I seem to live in a spot that does pretty well with LES in comparison to other spots. Close enough to the lake, but just far enough away that the winds don't completely blow it over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 starting to snow again. it isn't real hvy, but very nice flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ended up with around 2" today (Kalkaska). Looks like winds have shifted the snow more SW versus WNW which I would need here. Traverse City where I will be at tomorrow for most of the day. Expected to get 1-3". The real LES event to come Wednesday where hopefully a few inches+ can fall. In a cold pattern in a LES snow belt...storm pattern don't matter. It's cold they get it. Even if it's a couple inches a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Had a little bit of LES this morning but didn't amount to much. Sidewalks and some parking lots were a disaster though with the ice under the snow which held strong all day. I won't get excited about any decent LES till i see the models showing it 24hrs or less. Potential is there for some very decent LES but whether or not that is realized depends on flow, moisture etc. Talking W.MI/GRR area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ended up with around 2" today (Kalkaska). Looks like winds have shifted the snow more SW versus WNW which I would need here. Traverse City where I will be at tomorrow for most of the day. Expected to get 1-3". The real LES event to come Wednesday where hopefully a few inches+ can fall. In a cold pattern in a LES snow belt...storm pattern don't matter. It's cold they get it. Even if it's a couple inches a day. Depends on the snowbelt...Western Michigan snowbelt definitely relies on a pattern. Up there, you have more moisture from Lake Superior and Orographic lift to help you out. Had a little bit of LES this morning but didn't amount to much. Sidewalks and some parking lots were a disaster though with the ice under the snow which held strong all day. I won't get excited about any decent LES till i see the models showing it 24hrs or less. Potential is there for some very decent LES but whether or not that is realized depends on flow, moisture etc. Talking W.MI/GRR area. I agree, Harry! Many of our lake effect events since I have been here have been surprise snowfalls...didn't even really show up on models. The pattern is slowly becoming more favorable for those sort of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 27" and counting in south range UP last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 27" and counting in south range UP last few days which still probably puts them 50-60" below normal. Gonna have to get mega snowy up here to catch up to seasonal norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 27" and counting in south range UP last few days which still probably puts them 50-60" below normal. Gonna have to get mega snowy up here to catch up to seasonal norms. I wish I had someone willing to go up there with me this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Im planning an up north trip the first of March (prolly Feb 28-Mar 3 or Mar 1-3). The UP may get absolutely buried between LES and clippers the next few weeks. This may be like an "old-fashioned" winter where the UP has insanely higher snowdepths than downstate, something that has been a rare bird in recent winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hey all!! I'm new to the forum. I've been on Accuweather forums for a couple years and just found American and just had to join! Just a matter of time for this artic air to move in. Next week could really be a significant LES event givin -20 celcius 700mb and water temps in the 40's. If it happens, look out!! I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ironton, MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Im planning an up north trip the first of March (prolly Feb 28-Mar 3 or Mar 1-3). The UP may get absolutely buried between LES and clippers the next few weeks. This may be like an "old-fashioned" winter where the UP has insanely higher snowdepths than downstate, something that has been a rare bird in recent winters. Why wait 'til March? Snowing very heavily @ the moment w/much more the next few days IMBY:)))) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 drive_000.jpg Ironton, MI that could be here right now(considering it's 10 miles away). arctic front moving thru with an intense band of snow and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Headed up to the cottage this weekend in Antrim Cnty. Should be a nice retreat from this craptastic winter in SeMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0730 PM HEAVY SNOW PETOSKEY 45.38N 84.96W01/16/2013 M2.2 INCH EMMET MI CO-OP OBSERVER 1 HOUR TOTAL THRU 730 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Why wait 'til March? Snowing very heavily @ the moment w/much more the next few days IMBY:)))) That way the snowpack will have time to get deeper and deeper I usually do it every year in late Feb or early mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Headed up to the cottage this weekend in Antrim Cnty. Should be a nice retreat from this craptastic winter in SeMI. that area lost all its snow as well with the thaw so any snow you see will be all new. May as well chase les bands while your there, someone in that area should get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 that area lost all its snow as well with the thaw so any snow you see will be all new. May as well chase les bands while your there, someone in that area should get slammed No chasing... Just looking out the window at a fresh blanket of white and the smell of the fireplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Headed up to the cottage this weekend in Antrim Cnty. Should be a nice retreat from this craptastic winter in SeMI. Its craptastic everywhere in the state, its just that the bell curve of craptastic up there overlaps "good" for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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