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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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Easily 8-12 in lake enhanced areas for Saturday.

Hope you're right!

Snow is bouncing between light and moderate. Beautiful fluff tho.

Mancelona now has nearly 6"

It's amazing how the dbz reflections from LES are so deceiving... Those minimal returns during a synoptic event would be boarderline flurries.... Not during LES events.

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AIRMASS IS JUST PERFECT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE DENDRITES...
WITH THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER TEMP STUCK SQUARELY BETWEEN THE -12C TO
-18C ISOTHERMS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN IS
EXTREMELY FLUFFY AND HAS EASILY PILED UP...WITH RADAR AND SPOTTER
REPORTS HINTING AT 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO
 

 

It's amazing how the dbz reflections from LES are so deceiving... Those minimal returns during a synoptic event would be boarderline flurries.... Not during LES events.

Definitely!  Sometimes it's snowing here and no return on radar at all.

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AIRMASS IS JUST PERFECT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE DENDRITES...

WITH THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER TEMP STUCK SQUARELY BETWEEN THE -12C TO

-18C ISOTHERMS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN IS

EXTREMELY FLUFFY AND HAS EASILY PILED UP...WITH RADAR AND SPOTTER

REPORTS HINTING AT 3-6 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO

 

 

It's amazing how the dbz reflections from LES are so deceiving... Those minimal returns during a synoptic event would be boarderline flurries.... Not during LES events.

Definitely!  Sometimes it's snowing here and no return on radar at all.

I have been getting LES flurries here all morning... Nothing on radar.

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I am highly curious into what this pattern can bring for the lakes. Abnormally warm lakes, coldest air of the season, shortwave/clippers every few days....It looks like an ideal scenario for a broad brush LES pattern to hit a little bit of everyone. Buffalo has only had one LES event this season, usually at this time we have around 5-10 and the lake is usually well on its way to freezing not so much this year.

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I am highly curious into what this pattern can bring for the lakes. Abnormally warm lakes, coldest air of the season, shortwave/clippers every few days....It looks like an ideal scenario for a broad brush LES pattern to hit a little bit of everyone. Buffalo has only had one LES event this season, usually at this time we have around 5-10 and the lake is usually well on its way to freezing not so much this year.

 

I don't think the models know what to do with this setup...

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Same here

I live in northern Spring Lake Township. 5 minutes up the road in Norton Shores/Muskegon there was barely anything! Fortunately, I seem to live in a spot that does pretty well with LES in comparison to other spots. Close enough to the lake, but just far enough away that the winds don't completely blow it over me.

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Ended up with around 2" today (Kalkaska). Looks like winds have shifted the snow more SW versus WNW which I would need here. Traverse City where I will be at tomorrow for most of the day. Expected to get 1-3". The real LES event to come Wednesday where hopefully a few inches+ can fall. In a cold pattern in a LES snow belt...storm pattern don't matter. It's cold they get it. Even if it's a couple inches a day.

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Had a little bit of LES this morning but didn't amount to much. Sidewalks and some parking lots were a disaster though with the ice under the snow which held strong all day.

 

I won't get excited about any decent LES till i see the models showing it 24hrs or less. Potential is there for some very decent LES but whether or not that is realized depends on flow, moisture etc. Talking W.MI/GRR area.

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Ended up with around 2" today (Kalkaska). Looks like winds have shifted the snow more SW versus WNW which I would need here. Traverse City where I will be at tomorrow for most of the day. Expected to get 1-3". The real LES event to come Wednesday where hopefully a few inches+ can fall. In a cold pattern in a LES snow belt...storm pattern don't matter. It's cold they get it. Even if it's a couple inches a day.

Depends on the snowbelt...Western Michigan snowbelt definitely relies on a pattern. Up there, you have more moisture from Lake Superior and Orographic lift to help you out.

Had a little bit of LES this morning but didn't amount to much. Sidewalks and some parking lots were a disaster though with the ice under the snow which held strong all day.

 

I won't get excited about any decent LES till i see the models showing it 24hrs or less. Potential is there for some very decent LES but whether or not that is realized depends on flow, moisture etc. Talking W.MI/GRR area.

I agree, Harry! Many of our lake effect events since I have been here have been surprise snowfalls...didn't even really show up on models. The pattern is slowly becoming more favorable for those sort of events.

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Im planning an up north trip the first of March (prolly Feb 28-Mar 3 or Mar 1-3). The UP may get absolutely buried between LES and clippers the next few weeks. This may be like an "old-fashioned" winter where the UP has insanely higher snowdepths than downstate, something that has been a rare bird in recent winters.

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Hey all!! I'm new to the forum. I've been on Accuweather forums for a couple years and just found American and just had to join!

Just a matter of time for this artic air to move in. Next week could really be a significant LES event givin -20 celcius 700mb and water temps in the 40's. If it happens, look out!! I'm ready!

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Im planning an up north trip the first of March (prolly Feb 28-Mar 3 or Mar 1-3). The UP may get absolutely buried between LES and clippers the next few weeks. This may be like an "old-fashioned" winter where the UP has insanely higher snowdepths than downstate, something that has been a rare bird in recent winters.

Why wait 'til March? Snowing very heavily @ the moment w/much more the next few days IMBY:))))

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