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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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quick question as I'm new here.  Is there a thread where folks show the model runs and charts?  Or do they not get used much?  Thx

 

Back at eastern, before subforums, we used to have model threads. Now the threads are either storm specific or general observation threads and any analysis of the models takes place in there. We briefly tried having individual mini GL/MW/OV model threads but they didn't take for whatever reason.  

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Back at eastern, before subforums, we used to have model threads. Now the threads are either storm specific or general observation threads and any analysis of the models takes place in there. We briefly tried having individual mini GL/MW/OV model threads but they didn't take for whatever reason.  

 

They didn't take because the weather pattern has been so painfully borning.

 

Since 2009-2010, I'm not even sure we've had more than 5 medium-range storms (including GHD) that showed any decent potential.

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Models aren't handling the development of LES in the western basin of Lk Ontario well, so attention will still have to be paid to it but with the flow never turning onshore I think this threat is minimal at best.

 

WRF going gaga over another converged derived NW flow multi-lake connected mega streamer off Lk Huron later tonight which looks like a better bet for accums @ YYZ.

 

wrf_wind-precip01_F29.gif

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some INSANE snow rates this morning up here. I've had around 5" since early this morning.

0918 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E CROSS VILLAGE 45.64N 85.02W

02/03/2013 M10.5 INCH EMMET MI CO-OP OBSERVER

3HR TOTAL THRU 9AM.

 

Damn 10.5 in 3hr. I can't even imagine that. Must be just pounding flakes.

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NAM certainly seems to support at least the potential for a little bit of LES imby Monday evening:

 

NAM_218_2013020312_F36_41.5000N_87.0000W

 

Winds start backing right above 850 mb, which might limit organization.  And there might be a little bit of ice forming on the IN shore, per NWS lake temperatures:

 

current.png

 

But with a 10-knot north wind, decent inversion height, nearly-saturated low levels and a deltaT hovering right around the magic number of 13 C, the set-up at least bears watching, imo, for a quick few inches behind the Clipper.

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A couple days ago, I received nearly a foot in 4 hours and I was in shock at the snow rate. It's simply unlike anything I have ever seen.

less than a 1/4 mil vis now and has to be over 5" since dawn.

 

A good wind would make things very interesting I am sure. I find it hard to imagine the snow ratios of late. As soon as you push it with the truck it vanishes into a small layer with no pile.

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ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCEMENT TO WANE IN A COUPLE OF

HOURS IN THE LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP

EMMET/CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/LEELANAU COUNTIES UP INTO A LAKE SNOW

WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES THIS MORNING (10IN/3H AT

CROSS VILLAGE...5IN/1.5H AT BOYNE HIGHLANDS). NO CHANGES TO

REMAINING HEADLINES.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE

POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH 2 TO 5 MORE INCHES TONIGHT.

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Snowfall Totals from last LES event across WNY.

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

1037 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

 

COLDER AIR POURED INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND THERE HAS BEEN

PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SINCE THEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE STORM TOTALS

DATING BACK TO THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE SNOWS ARE JUST WRAPPING

UP...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL REPORTS LIKELY.

 

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

 

NEW YORK

 

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...

   RUSHFORD              12.6   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   ALFRED                 3.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   WHITESVILLE            0.9   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

   DELEVAN               28.0   600 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

   PERRYSBURG            24.0  1000 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

   WEST VALLEY           21.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   FRANKLINVILLE         12.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   LITTLE VALLEY         12.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   RANDOLPH               8.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ALLEGANY               6.8   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ALLEGANY PARK          6.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   OLEAN                  3.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

   JAMESTOWN              9.2   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   RIPLEY                 6.8   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   DUNKIRK                4.0  1000 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

...ERIE COUNTY...

   SARDINIA              19.0   600 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

   GRAND ISLAND          15.0   930 PM  2/02  FACEBOOK

   GLENWOOD              10.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   WILLIAMSVILLE          9.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   LANCASTER              9.4   135 PM  2/02  FACEBOOK

   COLDEN                 8.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   TONAWANDA              8.5   110 PM  2/02  FACEBOOK

   BOSTON                 8.1   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ALDEN                  8.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT   8.0   746 PM  2/02  ASOS

   WEST SENECA            4.2   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   WALES                  3.9   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   BLASDELL               3.1   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   HAMBURG                2.9   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

 

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

   2 E CLAYTON           14.5   622 PM  2/02  PUBLIC

 

...LEWIS COUNTY...

   PARKERS               21.0  1015 PM  1/31  MONTAGUE INN

   WEST LEYDEN           15.0   745 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK

   CONSTABLEVILLE        13.7   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

 

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

   MT MORRIS              5.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...MONROE COUNTY...

   NORTH CHILI            3.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ROCHESTER INTL ARPT    2.3   746 PM  2/02  ASOS

 

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

   SANBORN               13.0   949 PM  2/02  TRAINED SPOTTER

   NIAGARA FALLS INTL A   8.0   823 PM  2/02  ASOS

 

...ONTARIO COUNTY...

   GENEVA                 1.4   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...OSWEGO COUNTY...

   FULTON                11.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   OSWEGO                10.8   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   PALERMO               10.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   2 N REDFIELD          10.0   600 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK

   MINETTO                8.2   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   PULASKI                8.0  1200 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK

   SANDY CREEK            6.2   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...WAYNE COUNTY...

   WALWORTH               1.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

 

...WYOMING COUNTY...

   WARSAW                14.8   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     8.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

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Went for a walk on Lake St. Claire across the road, then cut up thru some woods to my road. Took my yard stick and measured between 22-31 inches of snow in untouched areas. Have had 8" here since this morning.

2 ft powder

attachicon.gif23139.JPG

attachicon.gif23138.JPG

attachicon.gif23136.JPG

my road

attachicon.gif23137.JPG

lake st claire

attachicon.gif231311.JPG

 

Went for a walk on Lake St. Claire across the road, then cut up thru some woods to my road. Took my yard stick and measured between 22-31 inches of snow in untouched areas. Have had 8" here since this morning.

2 ft powder

attachicon.gif23139.JPG

attachicon.gif23138.JPG

attachicon.gif23136.JPG

my road

attachicon.gif23137.JPG

lake st claire

attachicon.gif231311.JPG

That is just fantastic. So jealous.

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EC saying 10-15cm locally from this. Can you imagine, in a perfect--unrealistic--world, if any areas in the GTA get 10-15cm today and then 20-25cm on Thursday? I think that would redeem this winter... I'm thinking this band either stays offshore like Jan 25th event or disintegrates rapidly before any real amounts start to pile up.

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EC saying 10-15cm locally from this. Can you imagine, in a perfect--unrealistic--world, if any areas in the GTA get 10-15cm today and then 20-25cm on Thursday? I think that would redeem this winter... I'm thinking this band either stays offshore like Jan 25th event or disintegrates rapidly before any real amounts start to pile up.

 

Yeah, I'm not liking this on the west side of town. Might not get much of all. Think downtown and Scarborough should at least get an inch or two. Ajax-Oshawa corridor scores the most...again.

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Yeah, I'm not liking this on the west side of town. Might not get much of all. Think downtown and Scarborough should at least get an inch or two. Ajax-Oshawa corridor scores the most...again.

EC updated their forecast to 5-10cm everywhere with localized 15cm along the lakeshore. I'm still skeptical that anyone downtown, westerwards sees more than 2"

 

I'm at Yonge-Bloor, hoping for some action here. We haven't seen more than 3-4cm on the ground at a time this winter

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