snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 quick question as I'm new here. Is there a thread where folks show the model runs and charts? Or do they not get used much? Thx Back at eastern, before subforums, we used to have model threads. Now the threads are either storm specific or general observation threads and any analysis of the models takes place in there. We briefly tried having individual mini GL/MW/OV model threads but they didn't take for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Back at eastern, before subforums, we used to have model threads. Now the threads are either storm specific or general observation threads and any analysis of the models takes place in there. We briefly tried having individual mini GL/MW/OV model threads but they didn't take for whatever reason. They didn't take because the weather pattern has been so painfully borning. Since 2009-2010, I'm not even sure we've had more than 5 medium-range storms (including GHD) that showed any decent potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 2z RUC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z NMM: hireseast---ny-30-C-mslpthkpcp_white6.png 2z RUC: cref_t7sfc_f18.png Just a heads up. You can't post images from pay sites, like accuwx pro. When the 0z NMM comes, can you describe how it looks? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just a heads up. You can't post images from pay sites, like accuwx pro. When the 0z NMM comes, can you describe how it looks? thanks. Sorry about that, i will be sure to update you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Models aren't handling the development of LES in the western basin of Lk Ontario well, so attention will still have to be paid to it but with the flow never turning onshore I think this threat is minimal at best. WRF going gaga over another converged derived NW flow multi-lake connected mega streamer off Lk Huron later tonight which looks like a better bet for accums @ YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 some INSANE snow rates this morning up here. I've had around 5" since early this morning. 0918 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E CROSS VILLAGE 45.64N 85.02W 02/03/2013 M10.5 INCH EMMET MI CO-OP OBSERVER 3HR TOTAL THRU 9AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 some INSANE snow rates this morning up here. I've had around 5" since early this morning. 0918 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E CROSS VILLAGE 45.64N 85.02W 02/03/2013 M10.5 INCH EMMET MI CO-OP OBSERVER 3HR TOTAL THRU 9AM. Damn 10.5 in 3hr. I can't even imagine that. Must be just pounding flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Damn 10.5 in 3hr. I can't even imagine that. Must be just pounding flakes.A couple days ago, I received nearly a foot in 4 hours and I was in shock at the snow rate. It's simply unlike anything I have ever seen. less than a 1/4 mil vis now and has to be over 5" since dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 A couple days ago, I received nearly a foot in 4 hours and I was in shock at the snow rate. It's simply unlike anything I have ever seen. less than a 1/4 mil vis now and has to be over 5" since dawn. A snow lover's dream right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 A snow lover's dream right there.for sure, stebo. And if I dont have 2'on the ground its hovering right around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 for sure, stebo. And if I dont have 2'on the ground its hovering right around there. Awesome, can't wait to see an update after the snow stops, which might be a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 NAM certainly seems to support at least the potential for a little bit of LES imby Monday evening: Winds start backing right above 850 mb, which might limit organization. And there might be a little bit of ice forming on the IN shore, per NWS lake temperatures: But with a 10-knot north wind, decent inversion height, nearly-saturated low levels and a deltaT hovering right around the magic number of 13 C, the set-up at least bears watching, imo, for a quick few inches behind the Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 A couple days ago, I received nearly a foot in 4 hours and I was in shock at the snow rate. It's simply unlike anything I have ever seen. less than a 1/4 mil vis now and has to be over 5" since dawn. A good wind would make things very interesting I am sure. I find it hard to imagine the snow ratios of late. As soon as you push it with the truck it vanishes into a small layer with no pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCEMENT TO WANE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP EMMET/CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/LEELANAU COUNTIES UP INTO A LAKE SNOW WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES THIS MORNING (10IN/3H AT CROSS VILLAGE...5IN/1.5H AT BOYNE HIGHLANDS). NO CHANGES TO REMAINING HEADLINES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH 2 TO 5 MORE INCHES TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 A snow lover's dream right there.for sure, stebo. And if I dont have 2'on the ground its hovering right around there. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Went for a walk on Lake St. Claire across the road, then cut up thru some woods to my road. Took my yard stick and measured between 22-31 inches of snow in untouched areas. Have had 8" here since this morning. 2 ft powder my road lake st claire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Snowfall Totals from last LES event across WNY. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1037 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013 COLDER AIR POURED INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SINCE THEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE STORM TOTALS DATING BACK TO THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE SNOWS ARE JUST WRAPPING UP...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL REPORTS LIKELY. ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... RUSHFORD 12.6 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER ALFRED 3.7 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER WHITESVILLE 0.9 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... DELEVAN 28.0 600 PM 2/01 TRAINED SPOTTER PERRYSBURG 24.0 1000 PM 2/01 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST VALLEY 21.0 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS FRANKLINVILLE 12.5 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS LITTLE VALLEY 12.0 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER RANDOLPH 8.0 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ALLEGANY 6.8 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ALLEGANY PARK 6.0 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER OLEAN 3.7 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... JAMESTOWN 9.2 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER RIPLEY 6.8 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS DUNKIRK 4.0 1000 PM 2/01 TRAINED SPOTTER ...ERIE COUNTY... SARDINIA 19.0 600 PM 2/01 TRAINED SPOTTER GRAND ISLAND 15.0 930 PM 2/02 FACEBOOK GLENWOOD 10.5 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS WILLIAMSVILLE 9.5 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS LANCASTER 9.4 135 PM 2/02 FACEBOOK COLDEN 8.7 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER TONAWANDA 8.5 110 PM 2/02 FACEBOOK BOSTON 8.1 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ALDEN 8.0 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 8.0 746 PM 2/02 ASOS WEST SENECA 4.2 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS WALES 3.9 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER BLASDELL 3.1 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS HAMBURG 2.9 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... 2 E CLAYTON 14.5 622 PM 2/02 PUBLIC ...LEWIS COUNTY... PARKERS 21.0 1015 PM 1/31 MONTAGUE INN WEST LEYDEN 15.0 745 AM 2/01 FACEBOOK CONSTABLEVILLE 13.7 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... MT MORRIS 5.0 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER ...MONROE COUNTY... NORTH CHILI 3.5 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 2.3 746 PM 2/02 ASOS ...NIAGARA COUNTY... SANBORN 13.0 949 PM 2/02 TRAINED SPOTTER NIAGARA FALLS INTL A 8.0 823 PM 2/02 ASOS ...ONTARIO COUNTY... GENEVA 1.4 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... FULTON 11.0 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS OSWEGO 10.8 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS PALERMO 10.7 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER 2 N REDFIELD 10.0 600 AM 2/01 FACEBOOK MINETTO 8.2 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS PULASKI 8.0 1200 AM 2/01 FACEBOOK SANDY CREEK 6.2 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER ...WAYNE COUNTY... WALWORTH 1.5 800 AM 2/02 COCORAHS ...WYOMING COUNTY... WARSAW 14.8 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 N SILVER SPRINGS 8.0 800 AM 2/02 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Off and on pockets of moderate snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Went for a walk on Lake St. Claire across the road, then cut up thru some woods to my road. Took my yard stick and measured between 22-31 inches of snow in untouched areas. Have had 8" here since this morning. 2 ft powder 23139.JPG 23138.JPG 23136.JPG my road 23137.JPG lake st claire 231311.JPG Went for a walk on Lake St. Claire across the road, then cut up thru some woods to my road. Took my yard stick and measured between 22-31 inches of snow in untouched areas. Have had 8" here since this morning. 2 ft powder 23139.JPG 23138.JPG 23136.JPG my road 23137.JPG lake st claire 231311.JPG That is just fantastic. So jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Sun and heavy snow... Awesome sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 uploadfromtaptalk1359930898423.jpgSun and heavy snow... Awesome sight. Amazing pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Went for a walk on Lake St. Claire across the road, then cut up thru some woods to my road. Took my yard stick and measured between 22-31 inches of snow in untouched areas. Have had 8" here since this morning. 2 ft powder 23139.JPG 23138.JPG 23136.JPG my road 23137.JPG lake st claire 231311.JPG Amazing pictures Bo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Amazing pictures Bo.thank you, stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Overnight warned lake effect snow band gave us 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Decent band of LES over Lk Ontario. Might take a run at the Smoke before winds turn southerly and shift it to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Snowsquall watch issued for Toronto. Think the heaviest of the snow will in the east end and especially east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC saying 10-15cm locally from this. Can you imagine, in a perfect--unrealistic--world, if any areas in the GTA get 10-15cm today and then 20-25cm on Thursday? I think that would redeem this winter... I'm thinking this band either stays offshore like Jan 25th event or disintegrates rapidly before any real amounts start to pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 EC saying 10-15cm locally from this. Can you imagine, in a perfect--unrealistic--world, if any areas in the GTA get 10-15cm today and then 20-25cm on Thursday? I think that would redeem this winter... I'm thinking this band either stays offshore like Jan 25th event or disintegrates rapidly before any real amounts start to pile up. Yeah, I'm not liking this on the west side of town. Might not get much of all. Think downtown and Scarborough should at least get an inch or two. Ajax-Oshawa corridor scores the most...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah, I'm not liking this on the west side of town. Might not get much of all. Think downtown and Scarborough should at least get an inch or two. Ajax-Oshawa corridor scores the most...again. EC updated their forecast to 5-10cm everywhere with localized 15cm along the lakeshore. I'm still skeptical that anyone downtown, westerwards sees more than 2" I'm at Yonge-Bloor, hoping for some action here. We haven't seen more than 3-4cm on the ground at a time this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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