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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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There has been a major pile-up on the 401 near Woodstock OPP no other details yet but possibly 50+ vehicles involved. Looking on Twitter, the Woodstock area has possibly received around a foot of snow since this morning...without a snow squall warning??

 

Exactly 1 week after there was an 80 car pileup on the 401 east of Oshawa during a snowsquall. People just don't get it.

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WOW...DTW ftw again. Woke up to clear skies as you see in the pics above, and an ominous cloud now appears to my west...and look at this webcam near DTW. Its crazy how these bands STRENGTHEN as they get towards SE MI, rather than weaken. Hope it hits me!

 

What is amazing to me is how far you guys are from Lake Michigan, but how you manage at least 1 or 2 decent nickel and dime events per year. I think DTW fares at least as well, if not better than MDW for frequency and quality of the events. Growing up in the North suburbs of Chicago, I can name 2-3 LES events that panned out for at least someone in the area and about five times as many busts.

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What is amazing to me is how far you guys are from Lake Michigan, but how you manage at least 1 or 2 decent nickel and dime events per year. I think DTW fares at least as well, if not better than MDW for frequency and quality of the events. Growing up in the North suburbs of Chicago, I can name 2-3 LES events that panned out for at least someone in the area and about five times as many busts.

 

I average about 12-15 inches per year of LES in Howell... This year has probably amounted to around 5 or less so far, WAY below normal.

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What is amazing to me is how far you guys are from Lake Michigan, but how you manage at least 1 or 2 decent nickel and dime events per year. I think DTW fares at least as well, if not better than MDW for frequency and quality of the events. Growing up in the North suburbs of Chicago, I can name 2-3 LES events that panned out for at least someone in the area and about five times as many busts.

 

LES scraps are a nice security blanket. They make ORD like single digit futility numbers a virtual impossibility.

 

Although, I'm sure ORD has had some nice NE flow LES events that piled up big numbers, which can't happen in Detroit.

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What is amazing to me is how far you guys are from Lake Michigan, but how you manage at least 1 or 2 decent nickel and dime events per year. I think DTW fares at least as well, if not better than MDW for frequency and quality of the events. Growing up in the North suburbs of Chicago, I can name 2-3 LES events that panned out for at least someone in the area and about five times as many busts.

W/NW flow is way more common. It can get a little muddled trying to separate pure lake effect vs lake enhancement but if we are talking pure lake effect, DTW probably wins with frequency but quality may be more debatable.

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Hey, only a inch here for the event so far. The snow has been 5-10 miles south of me for the majority of this. Also, the high wind was bringing it far away from the lake front which is also not good for me. But things look to get interesting tonight. NWS just issued Lake Effect Snow Warning for all of Erie county for 6-12 inches. If the band stalls anywhere though and utizliing the entire fetch of the Lake we could get some surprise totals. In 2010 the NWS called for 6-10 and some places got 35-45 inches...

 

Latest Snowfall Reports:

 

NEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...   RUSHFORD               6.4   630 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   HOUGHTON               5.0   900 AM  2/01  POST OFFICE   CUBA                   2.5   900 AM  2/01  POST OFFICE   1 S WELLSVILLE         2.0   600 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   ALFRED                 0.6   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...   PERRYSBURG            18.0   800 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   SE WEST VALLEY        12.0   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE    8.5   830 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   FRANKLINVILLE          6.0   330 AM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER   1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE    6.0   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   1 ENE RANDOLPH         6.0   730 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   DELEVAN                4.0   122 PM  1/31  PUBLIC   5 N ALLEGANY           3.0   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   CATTARAUGUS            3.0   216 PM  1/31  PUBLIC   1 NE OLEAN             1.6   800 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 WSW OLEAN            1.0   730 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER...CAYUGA COUNTY...   8 SSE AUBURN           0.3   600 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...   4 SSW RIPLEY           4.9   635 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   2 SW FORESTVILLE       2.5   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...ERIE COUNTY...   2 SE GLENWOOD          6.0   800 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   2 NE BOSTON            4.0   630 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 W COLDEN             2.6   730 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   2 S WALES              1.2   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   ORCHARD PARK           1.0   800 PM  1/31  FACEBOOK   2 W WEST SENECA        0.2   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   ESE KENMORE            0.1   745 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT   0.1  1100 AM  2/01  ASOS   ENE EAST AURORA        0.1   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   2 SSW BLASDELL         0.1   645 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...GENESEE COUNTY...   2 NE STAFFORD          0.1   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...   PIERREPONT MANOR       7.0  1145 PM  1/31  TRAINED SPOTTER   2 S MANNSVILLE         6.0  1200 AM  2/01  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS...LEWIS COUNTY...   1 NE PARKERS          21.0  1015 PM  1/31  FACEBOOK   WEST LEYDEN           15.0   745 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK   1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE   13.0   500 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...   PORTAGEVILLE           7.5   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   MT MORRIS              4.0   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   2 W MOUNT MORRIS       4.0   800 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   4 WSW DANSVILLE        3.2   600 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 ENE DANSVILLE        1.2   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   AVON                   0.9   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER...MONROE COUNTY...   ROCHESTER INTL ARPT    2.1  1100 AM  2/01  ASOS   5 WNW ROCHESTER        1.0   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 NW NORTH CHILI       0.5   830 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...NIAGARA COUNTY...   1 NE PENDLETON         1.6   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 NE LOCKPORT          1.0   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND   0.7   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...ONTARIO COUNTY...   NAPLES                 2.0   700 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK   3 W GENEVA             1.3   800 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER...OSWEGO COUNTY...   2 N REDFIELD          10.0   600 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK   3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE   9.0   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   5 ESE OSWEGO           8.2   600 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   PULASKI                8.0  1200 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK   2 SSE PALERMO          6.2   600 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   7 NNE PHOENIX          6.2   600 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   SANDY CREEK            6.0   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   FULTON                 4.8   630 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   W FULTON               4.8   640 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   1 NNW FULTON           4.1   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   SE MINETTO             3.7   800 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...   2 NW PALMYRA           2.0   830 AM  2/01  COCORAHS   2 SW WALWORTH          1.1   700 AM  2/01  COCORAHS...WYOMING COUNTY...   6 SW WARSAW           10.5   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   2 W WARSAW            10.0   743 AM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     7.0   700 AM  2/01  CO-OP OBSERVER   PERRY                  5.5  1030 PM  1/31  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

 

Highest off Erie has been 18 inches, off Ontario 21 inches.

 

Latest Warning:

 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO10 PM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PMEST SATURDAY.* LOCATIONS...BUFFALO METRO AREA AND NORTHTOWNS.* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LATE  TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT  TRAVEL WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS.
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Exactly 1 week after there was an 80 car pileup on the 401 east of Oshawa during a snowsquall. People just don't get it.

You mean how they should change their driving habits in the winter? I'm with you on this one. You wouldn't believe how many people I saw speeding past me yesterday in the heavy snow. Insane. Sometimes I think people are in denial of the fact that this country experiences a season called winter.

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LES scraps are a nice security blanket. They make ORD like single digit futility numbers a virtual impossibility.

 

Although, I'm sure ORD has had some nice NE flow LES events that piled up big numbers, which can't happen in Detroit.

 

Certainly. Actually, I can't really think of a time ORD has gotten more than 2 or 3 inches from LES. It takes the right NE flow to get things cranking there. Lakefront areas and their surroundings do so much better. I figure the LES, among other things, is why DTW averages around 44" a year and ORD only 37" a year. What is interesting is that once you go south of I-80, snowfall averages really drop off. I think Kankakee only gets about 22.5 inches a year of snow or so.

 

I'm being spoiled here in Grand Rapids, though. GRR says 5 inches tonight and 3 tomorrow. We'll see if it happens. Yesterday we made out quite well

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Finally some squalls rolling through Hamilton.

 

We had a 30 minute squall around 1:30 that dropped about 1cm, and we have another, slightly heavier squall that's really dumping out there. I doubt we get much more than 3cm out of this whole thing but at least it's something. Big, fat flakes that look like soap bubbles atm. Highway 403 is almost a standstill.

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Finally some squalls rolling through Hamilton.

 

We had a 30 minute squall around 1:30 that dropped about 1cm, and we have another, slightly heavier squall that's really dumping out there. I doubt we get much more than 3cm out of this whole thing but at least it's something. Big, fat flakes that look like soap bubbles atm. Highway 403 is almost a standstill.

 

Congrats. Looks like LES will be our best shot at minor accum. snow over the next 5 or 6 days.

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Certainly. Actually, I can't really think of a time ORD has gotten more than 2 or 3 inches from LES. It takes the right NE flow to get things cranking there. Lakefront areas and their surroundings do so much better. I figure the LES, among other things, is why DTW averages around 44" a year and ORD only 37" a year. What is interesting is that once you go south of I-80, snowfall averages really drop off. I think Kankakee only gets about 22.5 inches a year of snow or so.

 

I'm being spoiled here in Grand Rapids, though. GRR says 5 inches tonight and 3 tomorrow. We'll see if it happens. Yesterday we made out quite well

 

Sorry, when I wrote ORD I meant that to be shorthand for Chicago in general, but O'Hare in particular. I have to think at least the downtown core/lakeshore has had at least a couple of pure or near pure 6"+ LES events in the recent past.

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Sorry, when I wrote ORD I meant that to be shorthand for Chicago in general, but O'Hare in particular. I have to think at least the downtown core/lakeshore has had at least a couple of pure or near pure 6"+ LES events in the recent past.

Geez.  I just realized your snow total is about the same as mine. :bag:   The Toronto snow flu has spread west and now London is infected............****

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Geez.  I just realized your snow total is about the same as mine. :bag:   The Toronto snow flu has spread west and now London is infected............****

 

Wow, it's below normal for us, and considering you get about 2x the snow we do per winter, that's really bad.

 

Did you manage anything from the Huron band this morning?  

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Wow, it's below normal for us, and considering you get about 2x the snow we do per winter, that's really bad.

 

Did you manage anything from the Huron band this morning?  

 

We got barely enough to cover the ground.   The best snow months are Nov-Jan, because of the squalls.   I will verify tonight, but I'm pretty sure this is the lowest snow total for the start of the season to the end of January EVER.     Nuff said................  and I'm freezing my baguettes off to boot.

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What is amazing to me is how far you guys are from Lake Michigan, but how you manage at least 1 or 2 decent nickel and dime events per year. I think DTW fares at least as well, if not better than MDW for frequency and quality of the events. Growing up in the North suburbs of Chicago, I can name 2-3 LES events that panned out for at least someone in the area and about five times as many busts.

 

LES scraps are a nice security blanket. They make ORD like single digit futility numbers a virtual impossibility.

 

Although, I'm sure ORD has had some nice NE flow LES events that piled up big numbers, which can't happen in Detroit.

LES almost guarantees me a white Christmas. Many many Christmas miracle LES events... Considering that's prime LES season.

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~2.3cm fell when that squall passed through between 4-5pm. It was, without a doubt, the best looking snowfall of the season as it was ripping a heavy and blinding snow for about 10-15 minutes with probably 1-2cm in that time. Wish it would have lasted longer... the rest was pixie dust.

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We got barely enough to cover the ground.   The best snow months are Nov-Jan, because of the squalls.   I will verify tonight, but I'm pretty sure this is the lowest snow total for the start of the season to the end of January EVER.     Nuff said................  and I'm freezing my baguettes off to boot.

 

I stand corrected.  The lowest opening 3 mths of winter was 1941-42 with a 14" total.   The snow came on in Feb and March and the season total ended up at 42".  Still terrible but the last 2 mths salvaged what was a total disaster.   A repeat this year? - I'll believe it when I see it.

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I stand corrected.  The lowest opening 3 mths of winter was 1941-42 with a 14" total.   The snow came on in Feb and March and the season total ended up at 42".  Still terrible but the last 2 mths salvaged what was a total disaster.   A repeat this year? - I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Wouldn't count on it. :( It's obvious we're in a long term rut. I can't tell whether there's light at the end of the tunnel (and if there is, we're talking 13-14, not this winter) or if this suckage is something that's going to colour the whole decade.

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Again, this is massively incorrect.

 

I think the huge drop off in synoptic snow is what's distorting your perception about how we get our snow.

I agree for the most part, but Toronto is generally shielded from lake effect and our annual snowfall compared to Buffalo, Barrie and London, Ontario would seem to prove that. :)

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I agree for the most part, but Toronto is generally shielded from lake effect and our annual snowfall compared to Buffalo, Barrie and London, Ontario would seem to prove that. :)

 

Um, yeah, major lake effect outbreaks in Toronto are rare and that's why our seasonal snowfall is so much lower than those other locales you mentioned. But your comment was "the region rarely sees...lake effect (snow)". Which is incorrect. The minor to modest accumulations we've seen this winter from LES is not aberrant.  

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Hey folks, I'm new here. From Hamilton.

I got booted off accuweather but I'm not sure why, and with no reply to my many emails asking for help from the mods. Apparently their administration and organization is as top notch as their forecasts. Lol...slam. 

 

Was really happy to find this board. I'm a big weather fan and like many of you, love snow storms!  Which means this isn't a great place to live.  haha  So far I'm impressed with Americanwx.  Looks really good and well organized. 

Cheers

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Hey folks, I'm new here. From Hamilton.

I got booted off accuweather but I'm not sure why, and with no reply to my many emails asking for help from the mods. Apparently their administration and organization is as top notch as their forecasts. Lol...slam. 

 

Was really happy to find this board. I'm a big weather fan and like many of you, love snow storms!  Which means this isn't a great place to live.  haha  So far I'm impressed with Americanwx.  Looks really good and well organized. 

Cheers

Welcome! Were you the one nicknamed "the hammer" on the accuweather forums?

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Um, yeah, major lake effect outbreaks in Toronto are rare and that's why our seasonal snowfall is so much lower than those other locales you mentioned. But your comment was "the region rarely sees...lake effect (snow)". Which is incorrect. The minor to modest accumulations we've seen this winter from LES is not aberrant.  

Your point is well taken. What I should have said was that Toronto rarely sees significant amounts of lake snow. :)

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I'm thinking I might get a half decent snowfall out ahead of the Saturday clipper.  Fairly long period of WSW flow off the lake.

 

I'm going to call 5" from this one IMBY.  Should see 1.0" per hour rates for a good 3-4 hour period tonight.  These lake enhanced synoptic snow events tend to produce nice big fluffy dendrites that accumulate quickly. Ratios will be 25:1. 

 

3" on the ground from the past 48 hours.  Add a fresh 5" to that and 8" will be the best snowdepth so far this year.

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