Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 So for NNW, South Haven is a likely jackpot zone. Big difference in terms of coverage with the W events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 So for NNW, South Haven is a likely jackpot zone. Big difference in terms of coverage with the W events. Yeah, pretty much. Harry posted some great examples. I as you can see from all of his examples of NNW, I get SOME LES, but not the brunt of it. I live in the area of SW Muskegon County and Northwest Ottawa County, which as you can see from the maps, does much better than even Muskegon itself. My area tends to get hit by many of the different flows for LES, but SW and West flows are the best for here. WNW is probably the third best. In north flow, we go to the beach and stare at DARK clouds a couple miles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 I definitely like the west flow best, doesn't reap the same max totals... but spreads the love out more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Harry, just wanted to give you a head's up that the actual location of the Muskegon airport is actually southwest of where they have Muskegon located on the map. In fact, "Muskegon"'s title is north of where it is actually located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I definitely like the west flow best, doesn't reap the same max totals... but spreads the love out more. For sure. If the winds are too strong, the snow skips over us on the shore, but that is when you have your best chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 For sure. If the winds are too strong, the snow skips over us on the shore, but that is when you have your best chances. To tell you the truth, I don't care about my backyard much... Whatever is best for the traditional lake belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 So for NNW, South Haven is a likely jackpot zone. Big difference in terms of coverage with the W events. Yeah.. Usually somewhere between there and Benton Harbor is jackpot with those events. I definitely like the west flow best, doesn't reap the same max totals... but spreads the love out more. Not unless it is late Dec 2001 or Jan 99 following the blizzard! Ofcourse those lasted several days+ and thus rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GRR seems a bit more optimistic about perhaps a couple inches of lake effect snow over the next couple of days. I am a bit confused as to where they see this on models. Or is it more of their own prediction based off of west winds and some available moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GRR seems a bit more optimistic about perhaps a couple inches of lake effect snow over the next couple of days. I am a bit confused as to where they see this on models. Or is it more of their own prediction based off of west winds and some available moisture? Later tonight/early tomorrow we could get some LES and then again in the middle of the week but that is not looking overly impressive to me. Surface low tracks WAY to far to the nw which means so does our moisture source. Could get some enhancement off the lake with the front i suppose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Later tonight/early tomorrow we could get some LES and then again in the middle of the week but that is not looking overly impressive to me. Surface low tracks WAY to far to the nw which means so does our moisture source. Could get some enhancement off the lake with the front i suppose? Do you think it could be enough tonight to cover the ground? I read GRR recent discussion about how normally tonight into tomorrow would have been a great event, BUT......... I am biting my tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 That's a pretty good sounding for LES is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow look at the timing of that trail cam... The last image caught a sledder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow look at the timing of that trail cam... The last image caught a sledder! It was intentional to show that there are a few who still having fun this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 It was intentional to show that there are a few who still having fun this winter... FAT flakes falling in that image too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That's a pretty good sounding for LES is it not? Unfortunately, not really. Some things to look for are: 1. Inversions at least at 7-8k feet if not higher (it looks to be around 4k feet on that sounding) 2. Good moisture through the mixed layer and preferably above it too to help seed the lake effect (there is some moisture in the mixed layer but not great...quite dry above it) 3. Little speed or directional shear. There is over 30 knots of shear between the surface and 700mb...which will help shear lake effect. That type of sounding would probably produce light snow showers but rates wouldn't be decent. Given it's lake effect and there is moisture and lift into the DGZ though there would probably be some ok sized flakes, but they wouldn't really come down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I leave at 4:00am for 5 days to go to LES country (Kalkaska). Should see a few bands this week pretty excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I leave at 4:00am for 5 days to go to LES country (Kalkaska). Should see a few bands this week pretty excited about it. should be a decent week up here for some snow, especially late week. Ski resorts are in good shape still but not alot of snow on the ground in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Hopes are dashed down here in Michiana with westerly flow. Only a light dusting this late afternoon with the changeover and no snow forecast for the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That's a pretty good sounding for LES is it not? The natural tendency is for air to blow from high pressure to low pressure, or from cold to warm. With a surface wind of only ~ 5 knots, the west wind can't overcome the landbreeze, so you end up with bands that hardly penetrate inland, or more likely, a mesolow over the lower lake. Ideally, you're looking for surface winds between 10 and 25 knots, as well as the factors OHweather mentioned, like minimal speed and directional shear and good moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 should be a decent week up here for some snow, especially late week. Ski resorts are in good shape still but not alot of snow on the ground in the area. Was there last week rapid snow melt was going on hopefully builds back again for winter sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Was there last week rapid snow melt was going on hopefully builds back again for winter sports. What brings you up this way so frequently if I may ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Hopes are dashed down here in Michiana with westerly flow. Only a light dusting this late afternoon with the changeover and no snow forecast for the rest of the week. Hopes are dashed here even with a west wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What brings you up this way so frequently if I may ask? work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Unfortunately, not really. Some things to look for are: 1. Inversions at least at 7-8k feet if not higher (it looks to be around 4k feet on that sounding) 2. Good moisture through the mixed layer and preferably above it too to help seed the lake effect (there is some moisture in the mixed layer but not great...quite dry above it) 3. Little speed or directional shear. There is over 30 knots of shear between the surface and 700mb...which will help shear lake effect. That type of sounding would probably produce light snow showers but rates wouldn't be decent. Given it's lake effect and there is moisture and lift into the DGZ though there would probably be some ok sized flakes, but they wouldn't really come down hard. The natural tendency is for air to blow from high pressure to low pressure, or from cold to warm. With a surface wind of only ~ 5 knots, the west wind can't overcome the landbreeze, so you end up with bands that hardly penetrate inland, or more likely, a mesolow over the lower lake. Ideally, you're looking for surface winds between 10 and 25 knots, as well as the factors OHweather mentioned, like minimal speed and directional shear and good moisture. Thanks for the explanations. Still learning on how to read soundings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Lake snow a little more robust than forecasted. APX issues a lake adv for Antrim and Ostego counties for upwards of 6". 19 out and roads are poopy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Keep the reports coming Bo... Looks like Sat-Sun is going to POUND northern lower... I'll be up friday night or early saturday for the weekend. I'm really hoping either eastern UP or northern lower will have somewhere with decent snow before then, sounds like we are getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Keep the reports coming Bo... Looks like Sat-Sun is going to POUND northern lower... I'll be up friday night or early saturday for the weekend. I'm really hoping either eastern UP or northern lower will have somewhere with decent snow before then, sounds like we are getting close. I'd guess a minimum of a general 5-6" by friday with higher totals i'm sure in the Mancelona area where 3-4" was reported last night/this morning. Local met is betting high on a decent snow saturday, like you mentioned. Think the coast might see some suprising toals too from tonight-wednesday with a decent wsw/sw flow setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Managed a 1/4" of fluff from the lake here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Keep the reports coming Bo... Looks like Sat-Sun is going to POUND northern lower... I'll be up friday night or early saturday for the weekend. I'm really hoping either eastern UP or northern lower will have somewhere with decent snow before then, sounds like we are getting close. I'd guess a minimum of a general 5-6" by friday with higher totals i'm sure in the Mancelona area where 3-4" was reported last night/this morning. Local met is betting high on a decent snow saturday, like you mentioned. Think the coast might see some suprising toals too from tonight-wednesday with a decent wsw/sw flow setting up. There's two clippers... I'm probably headed to Newberry if things go as expected.... Looks like eastern UP is going to see the most this week.... Then Saturday it appears northern lower jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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