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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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Thank goodness !!! Snow amounts are more less normal for the Detroit area for this season to date. A larger storm or continuation and this pattern, this winter locally will be stellar compared to most of the region.

I had said in the Fall that this winter probably wouldnt be great but would be better than last year. It has been that to a tee. This is the 2nd time now a snowpack vanishes from a torch only to have the bitter cold immediately descend down. Don't get me wrong snowcover, like everything else, has been way better than last year, but climo or not I just HATE seeing it gone in mid-winter.

 

One thing no one in SE MI can deny...snow events have indeed overperformed. Running through SE MI's 1"+ synoptic snow events this winter in comparison to the forecast:

 

Dec 21: as expected

Dec 24: overperformed

Dec 26: overperformed

Dec 29: as expected to slightly underperformed

Jan 25: overperformed

Jan 28: overperformed

Could be the 2nd year in a row that our snow totals arent indicative of how crummy the winter was region-wide overall. In the grand scheme of decades and decades of climate data, looking back 2011-12 & 2012-13 wont look bad at all, especially with what happened the prior 4 years.

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I recall that Grandville usually does much better than Grand Rapids.

Thank goodness !!! Snow amounts are more less normal for the Detroit area for this season to date. A larger storm or continuation and this pattern, this winter locally will be stellar compared to most of the region.

Not only is Grandville in a better location for NW flow than GR, I think the hills in that area help to add more lift to enhance LES.

Yeah, Detroit is doing pretty well compared to many other places. You guys have had several over-performers.

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Was NOT expecting this. Heavy snow band setting up over me and DTW, instant winter wonderland. Ground was bare at 6am we have well over an inch will probably get 2" from this band alone, very impressive for this area of the state! Damn having to work early!

 

Nasty wonderland at that. It hurts to be outside. Snow feels like rocks hitting your face... It was funny watching the kids run against the wind to get on the bus. 

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.. Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 1 PM EST this

afternoon... 

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect until 1 PM EST

this afternoon.

Hazardous weather... 

* snow squalls will produce around 2 inches of snowfall... locally

   up to 3 inches. Snowfall rates within the most intense snow

   bands will exceed 1 inch per hour.

* Visibilities will be reduced to less than one half mile in the

   most intense snow squalls. 

Impacts... 

* Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly in the vicinity of

   intense snow showers. 

 

 

Good call on DTX's part. It is quite nasty and accumulating quickly.

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Upstream connection and inland penetration is really impressive with this outbreak. There's a band with 30 dbz+ returns currently impacting the west side of Toronto. You don't typically see that with a Huron band.

 

Also very impressive here! Quite strong winds with some powerful gusts. Low visibility at times, at least 1-2cm so far but hard to tell since its blowing around so much.

 

Strength of the wind (40 km/h) is really allowing the snow to blow across the province and low shear allowing those bands to stay together for a long distance.

 

Fetch isn't even at an optimum with the current winds. Models forecasting the winds to shift a bit more NW by tonight.

 

2Siysem.png

q7oJmoS.png

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Also very impressive here! Quite strong winds with some powerful gusts. Low visibility at times, at least 1-2cm so far but hard to tell since its blowing around so much.

 

Strength of the wind (40 km/h) is really allowing the snow to blow across the province and low shear allowing those bands to stay together for a long distance.

 

Fetch isn't even at an optimum with the current winds. Models forecasting the winds to shift a bit more NW by tonight.

 

2Siysem.png

q7oJmoS.png

 

Fetch can be deceiving in this case because there's upstream connections. So moisture shouldn't be a problem. One thing I'm noticing early on is that the main band seems to be setting up well north of where the 4km NAM/WRF were indicating.  Since it'll sag south once the winds turn 310-320 we might get another burst of snow in Toronto later today.  

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