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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

1221 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1209 PM HEAVY SNOW SAINT JOSEPH 42.11N 86.48W

01/24/2013 M10.5 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...SNOW DEPTH

10 INCHES

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Now that's the LES aftermath of a typical event! At least the LES belts got turned on this week.

 

Totally! It's about dang time! Received 12.5 inches at my location.

 

Max off of Erie was 25 inches

Max off of Ontario was 38 inches

 

Looks like a 3.5 out of 5 star event, due to lack of population getting hit hard.

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Totally! It's about dang time! Received 12.5 inches at my location.

 

Max off of Erie was 25 inches

Max off of Ontario was 38 inches

 

Looks like a 3.5 out of 5 star event, due to lack of population getting hit hard.

Yeah the official reporting stations didnt do too hot (other than Erie). In fact, Jan 21-24 total snowfall was no more impressive at CLE (2.4") or BUF (1.9") than at outside-the-snowbelt DTW (2.2"). Of course some of the totals in those bands did not disappoint!

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Allegan only has ten inches? Wow, that is what I have. I thought they got a lot more.

 

Must have really been hit and miss per this..

 

Snowfall totals for the whole GRR area. Was 6.0" here.

NOUS43 KGRR 241705PNSGRRPUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI1202 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL   01/20-01/24LOCATION                   OBSERVED     TIME/DATE                            VALUE     OF OBSERVATION    LAT    LONMICHIGAN...ALLEGAN COUNTY...  2 W WAYLAND                 18.1 M   700 AM 01/24   42.67N  85.68W...BARRY COUNTY...  4 W BELLEVUE                 4.6 M   700 AM 01/24   42.45N  85.10W  4 SSW HASTINGS               6.9 M   700 AM 01/24   42.59N  85.32W...CLINTON COUNTY...  2 N HASLETT                  2.8 M   700 AM 01/24   42.77N  84.40W...JACKSON COUNTY...  5 S CONCORD                  3.3 M   819 AM 01/24   42.11N  84.63W  3 NNE TOMPKINS               3.5 M   900 AM 01/24   42.41N  84.53W...KALAMAZOO COUNTY...  4 SSE OSHTEMO               13.4 M   815 AM 01/24   42.21N  85.66W...KENT COUNTY...  GERALD R FORD ARPT           5.9 M   700 AM 01/24   42.89N  85.53W  3 ESE GRAND RAPIDS           6.3 M   700 AM 01/24   42.94N  85.61W  1 SSW DUTTON                 9.2 M   630 AM 01/24   42.83N  85.59W...MASON COUNTY...  S SCOTTVILLE                15.7 M   500 AM 01/24   43.95N  86.28W...MUSKEGON COUNTY...  MUSKEGON ARPT               16.6 M   700 AM 01/24   43.17N  86.24W...OCEANA COUNTY...  3 WSW HART                   5.4 M   700 AM 01/24   43.68N  86.42W...OTTAWA COUNTY...  2 WSW WALKER                12.8 M   630 AM 01/24   42.99N  85.81W  1 WSW GRANDVILLE            16.9 M   700 AM 01/24   42.90N  85.78W  SE ALLENDALE                20.0 M   700 AM 01/24   42.97N  85.95W...VAN BUREN COUNTY...  4 NNE PAW PAW               11.3 M   700 AM 01/24   42.27N  85.86W  SSW BLOOMINGDALE            18.5 M   600 AM 01/24   42.38N  85.96W$$EBW[/quote]
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Must have really been hit and miss per this..

 

Snowfall totals for the whole GRR area. Was 6.0" here.

NOUS43 KGRR 241705

PNSGRR

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1202 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 01/20-01/24

LOCATION OBSERVED TIME/DATE

VALUE OF OBSERVATION LAT LON

MICHIGAN

...ALLEGAN COUNTY...

2 W WAYLAND 18.1 M 700 AM 01/24 42.67N 85.68W

...BARRY COUNTY...

4 W BELLEVUE 4.6 M 700 AM 01/24 42.45N 85.10W

4 SSW HASTINGS 6.9 M 700 AM 01/24 42.59N 85.32W

...CLINTON COUNTY...

2 N HASLETT 2.8 M 700 AM 01/24 42.77N 84.40W

...JACKSON COUNTY...

5 S CONCORD 3.3 M 819 AM 01/24 42.11N 84.63W

3 NNE TOMPKINS 3.5 M 900 AM 01/24 42.41N 84.53W

...KALAMAZOO COUNTY...

4 SSE OSHTEMO 13.4 M 815 AM 01/24 42.21N 85.66W

...KENT COUNTY...

GERALD R FORD ARPT 5.9 M 700 AM 01/24 42.89N 85.53W

3 ESE GRAND RAPIDS 6.3 M 700 AM 01/24 42.94N 85.61W

1 SSW DUTTON 9.2 M 630 AM 01/24 42.83N 85.59W

...MASON COUNTY...

S SCOTTVILLE 15.7 M 500 AM 01/24 43.95N 86.28W

...MUSKEGON COUNTY...

MUSKEGON ARPT 16.6 M 700 AM 01/24 43.17N 86.24W

...OCEANA COUNTY...

3 WSW HART 5.4 M 700 AM 01/24 43.68N 86.42W

...OTTAWA COUNTY...

2 WSW WALKER 12.8 M 630 AM 01/24 42.99N 85.81W

1 WSW GRANDVILLE 16.9 M 700 AM 01/24 42.90N 85.78W

SE ALLENDALE 20.0 M 700 AM 01/24 42.97N 85.95W

...VAN BUREN COUNTY...

4 NNE PAW PAW 11.3 M 700 AM 01/24 42.27N 85.86W

SSW BLOOMINGDALE 18.5 M 600 AM 01/24 42.38N 85.96W

$$

EBW

Very impressive! I actually have more than the airport (I work right by it) so I wonder how much I got before compaction. There definitely is not 16 inches on the ground anywhere in Muskegon county that I am aware of. Much of the area looks to have 8 to 10 inches. It didn't really compact much today,

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Very impressive! I actually have more than the airport (I work right by it) so I wonder how much I got before compaction. There definitely is not 16 inches on the ground anywhere in Muskegon county that I am aware of. Much of the area looks to have 8 to 10 inches. It didn't really compact much today,

 

The stuff on Mon-Tues compacted a good bit and quickly and between that and the wind we had there was grass tips showing in some open areas. So far so good with yesterdays stuff. No grass tips showing at all for the time being. Very typical with LES.

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Back to the discussion yesterday in records to insane snowfall rates for the TugHill and Buffalo. Did a little research on some of our major events here. CHECK THIS OUT! MY GOD! I was in that band when I lived in Orchard Park. We received 28 inches from it. I did not receive those kind of rates though at my location.

 

The first half of December saw two remarkable lake-effect snowstorms in New York State (and a third more widespread and typical event December 12-15). The first occurred December 1-3 in the Buffalo area as a result of a persistent flow of cold air from the southwest over Lake Erie. A narrow 12-mile wide band of extremely intense snowfall set up just to the south and east of downtown Buffalo. The maximum total was 42” at Depew (7 miles east of Buffalo) over a 24-hour period ending at 8 a.m. on December 3. West Seneca (about 7 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo) totaled 30” with 7” of this falling in just one 30 minute period between 3:30 p.m.-4:00 p.m. on December 2nd according to local storm spotters. If true, this would be one of the, if not the, most intense point snowfall on record anywhere in the world. Unfortunately, for motorists, a 15-mile section of Interstate-90 passed through the area of intense accumulation resulting in the closure of this major highway for a 12-hour period. Hundreds of travelers were trapped in their vehicles for the duration of the highway closure and the New York State Highway Department became the focus of much criticism concerning their inability to open the road in a more timely fashion.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=8

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I sure hope so because we just lost our whole snowpack in the matter of 6 hours.

This winter sucks... What can I tell ya... Get a hobby and reason to go to the yoop and live by-proxy... I rarely even look at models for my backyard anymore.

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I sure hope so because we just lost our whole snowpack in the matter of 6 hours.

 

GRR is going all out this go around.

 

 

SIGNIFICANT WNW FLOW LES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS H8 TEMPS PLUNGE TOAROUND -18 C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE MOST PROLIFIC WNW FLOW LES SHOULDOCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS OF -19 TO -21C... DEEP MOISTURE... GOOD UPSTREAM RH AND INSTABILITY ALL IN PLACE.DGZ DEPTH IS FAVORABLE AS ARE OMEGAS... PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHTWHEN OMEGAS ON THE ORDER OF 15 MICROBARS/SEC ARE NOTED IN THE MIDDLEOF THE DGZ NEAR LAKE MI. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUEFRIDAY.OUR FAVORED WNW FLOW SNOW BELT REGIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP 6TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT LIKELY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKEMI SHORELINE. WE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR OUR WESTERNTWO TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013THE OVERALL THEME SEEMS TO BE COLD WITH SNOW INTO SUNDAY THEN A SLOWWARMING TREND AFTER THAT.WHILE THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THEOVERALL PATTERN THERE IS A CLEAR SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERN POSITIONOF THE POLAR JET INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AMORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON ANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM.THAT HAS ALLOWS ME TO DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR MONDAY.THERE IS STILL THAT STRONG EAST ASIAN JET NEAR 35N THAT EXTENDS FROM150E TO 165W AT 30TH/00Z WITH SPEEDS TO 200 KNOTS. LITTLE QUESTIONTHAT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS AS ALL THAT ENERGYMOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS COMING WEEKEND. IT HELPS TORETROGRADE THE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND (30TH/00Z) TOWESTERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY. THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE POLAR JETCORE NEAR OR SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THATIN TURN MEANS THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWTHROUGH THE WEEKEND.A SHORTWAVE  MOVES JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND THAT TURNSTHE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MORE WESTERLY. THE MOISTURE STAYS DEEPENOUGH AND 850 MB TEMPS COLD ENOUGH THAT A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND LAKEEFFECT EVENT IS LIKELY. THAT IS FOLLOWED SUNDAY BY A DIGGING JET ONTHE WEST SIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX THAT BRINGS A DECENT SOUTHWESTWIND LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH IS FOLLOWED BY MORECOLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SUNDAY.  THEN THERE IS THE MONDAYSYSTEM...IF THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH WE COULD HAVEANOTHER SNOW EVENT MONDAY.

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Yeah they are, Harry...I think that is particularly because Bill Marino is involved with this discussion. I knew right away it was him...excitement about the weather and good explanation of why he thinks the weather is going to play out a certain way. I respect him, as he is a meteorologist still willing to make his own call on the weather.

So what do you think...will we get in on the defo. band before the LES?

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Yeah they are, Harry...I think that is particularly because Bill Marino is involved with this discussion. I knew right away it was him...excitement about the weather and good explanation of why he thinks the weather is going to play out a certain way. I respect him, as he is a meteorologist still willing to make his own call on the weather.

So what do you think...will we get in on the defo. band before the LES?

 

I like that he goes in depth and just does not give a read of what we already know and thus the models.

 

As for the defo band? You should for sure. Won't say much else about totals or the rest of the area/down here because this looks to be one of those that may surprise.

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I like that he goes in depth and just does not give a read of what we already know and thus the models.

 

As for the defo band? You should for sure. Won't say much else about totals or the rest of the area/down here because this looks to be one of those that may surprise.

I was thinking the same thing. It looks to be moving more east than north now...as well as holding together.

I wonder if the strong winds the next couple of days will shear apart the lake bands? I like the looks for everything except the wind. We have some trouble along the lakeshore when that happens.

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Once again, snowfall forecast is going to depend 100% on convergence band placement. This lake effect event, just like any other lake effect event, will hold highest accumulations west of US131. Places like Hamilton and Allegan, can expect to see locally 12″. Areas east such as Martin, Downtown Grand Rapids, and Kalamazoo should see 3 to 6″, with locally higher amounts near Martin. Areas further East such as Eastern Kent county, Hastings, Battle Creek and Coldwater, should expect to see 1 to 4″, with highest amounts near Hastings.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a Wind Advisory for parts of the area, as several models indicate gusts to 55MPH tonight/tomorrow.

The heaviest lake effect snows will be Thursday afternoon and evening/overnight, likely impacting the evening commute. Once again, depending on where convergence bands set up will dictate snowfall amounts. This event looks to have 300° winds, which would strongly be NW until Friday afternoon, when the winds go more west giving more of a WNW flow.

Another warm up is on the horizon for the first week of February, where temps could approach 40°+ by the 6th.

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Once again, snowfall forecast is going to depend 100% on convergence band placement. This lake effect event, just like any other lake effect event, will hold highest accumulations west of US131. Places like Hamilton and Allegan, can expect to see locally 12″. Areas east such as Martin, Downtown Grand Rapids, and Kalamazoo should see 3 to 6″, with locally higher amounts near Martin. Areas further East such as Eastern Kent county, Hastings, Battle Creek and Coldwater, should expect to see 1 to 4″, with highest amounts near Hastings.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a Wind Advisory for parts of the area, as several models indicate gusts to 55MPH tonight/tomorrow.

The heaviest lake effect snows will be Thursday afternoon and evening/overnight, likely impacting the evening commute. Once again, depending on where convergence bands set up will dictate snowfall amounts. This event looks to have 300° winds, which would strongly be NW until Friday afternoon, when the winds go more west giving more of a WNW flow.

Another warm up is on the horizon for the first week of February, where temps could approach 40°+ by the 6th.

I recall that Grandville usually does much better than Grand Rapids.

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:( Detroit has been over performing this winter. I bet you get another surprise. There are also potential clippers in the offing.

 

Thank goodness !!! Snow amounts are more less normal for the Detroit area for this season to date. A larger storm or continuation and this pattern, this winter locally will be stellar compared to most of the region.

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I recall that Grandville usually does much better than Grand Rapids.

 

 

This is true. With the last event before the torch, I got a good conception of the spread across the Grand Rapids area while participating in a wedding. Where I am, on the southeast side of GR, we had about 5 inches on the ground (after the LES fluff factor went away). At my friend's home by Grandville, there was more like 8-9 inches and at the church 5 miles southeast of Hudsonville, there was easily a foot and it ripped +SN all last Friday. Usually the cutoff between the higher amounts and the not as high (but usually decent) amounts is the Ottawa-Kent county line. Regardless, having grown up in Chicago, it is pretty awesome to be here.

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This is true. With the last event before the torch, I got a good conception of the spread across the Grand Rapids area while participating in a wedding. Where I am, on the southeast side of GR, we had about 5 inches on the ground (after the LES fluff factor went away). At my friend's home by Grandville, there was more like 8-9 inches and at the church 5 miles southeast of Hudsonville, there was easily a foot and it ripped +SN all last Friday. Usually the cutoff between the higher amounts and the not as high (but usually decent) amounts is the Ottawa-Kent county line. Regardless, having grown up in Chicago, it is pretty awesome to be here.

 

Sounds like you got out while the Gettin-was-good.

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Sounds like you got out while the Gettin-was-good.

 

Yes, basically. I spent half of December and most of January at home. That place couldn't buy a three inch storm this year if it sold its soul and then some, it seems like. We had an amazing run through the late 2000's until 2011-2012. I know after the years of riches in the late 70's, there were some meager years but nothing that has compared to the last two years there.  When it snows synoptically in Chicago, GRR is usually on the same storm track. I think almost all of our snow here in GR (except maybe for the Dec. 26th storm, 2 inches or so) has been LES.

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