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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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I have a feeling they will drop the advisory for most of the area, other than the coast.

The mesolow and lack of general moisture before hand, definitely gave us the kick!

My eyes turn to Friday where inland counties should receive about an inch of synoptic snow, lakeshore 2-4".

Possible flare up of snow Saturday night with another inch seems square.

Then.... Dunn dun dunnnnnnnnn RAIN and upper 30's Tuesday with lows in the mid 30's!! Spring is making a come back!

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Yeah I caught that. LES from 5am-2pm about. 1.6" for Midway tomorrow.

When I assessed potential earlier today, most guidance had convergence weakening as band shifted into Illinois as well as lowering inversion heights, but certainly something to watch for. I had the late December event in the back of my head, which was more marginal thermodynamically but at least from how I saw it today had a longer duration of good convergence than what I see here. It'll be interesting to watch this one unfold.

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I didn't even notice the LES Advisory until just now.  

 

Also...

 

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     SNOW             3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W
01/23/2013  M0.3 INCH        COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            0.3 INCH OF SNOW. 0.01 INCH LIQUID. TRACE ON GROUND.

 

 

30:1 ratios at MDW!  (Maybe)

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Nice burst here last few minutes. Campus sidewalks and streets covered, grass is getting there now too.

LOT evening update is below. The inversion didn't seem that high on the runs I was looking at but I haven't checked the past few runs.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1119 PM CST WED JAN 23 2013

DISCUSSION

1119 PM CST

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH REFLECTIVITY AND LAKESHORE OBS ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN SUGGESTING A FOCUSING OF CONVERGENCE TRYING TO COMMENCE. DECENT RADAR RETURNS ARE NOTED WITH A TRAJECTORY TOWARD PORTER COUNTY WITH ARRIVAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS BEING RATHER INTENSE AND BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATION. 00Z RAOB FROM GREEN BAY SHOWED H85 TEMPS RIGHT AROUND -22C WITH LAKE TEMPS LIKELY IN THE +2 TO +3 RANGE RESULTING IN EXTREME INSTABILITY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS PUSH 11-12 KFT LATER TONIGHT. THE BAND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STEADILY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO ACCUMULATION. WITH THE INSTABILITY AND A DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RANGE...IF NOT HIGHER...AT TIMES. WILL GO WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT LOCAL 8 INCH AMOUNTS ARE A POSSIBILITY WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS OR PIVOTS....ESPECIALLY IF THE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS CAN BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAND AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH RES GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW WHICH COULD ACT TO FURTHER FOCUS THE BAND BUT ALSO PUSH IT FURTHER WESTWARD RAISING SOME CONCERN FOR ACCUMS ACROSS LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES INTO MIDDAY. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN INVERSION HEIGHTS DO FALL THOUGH LOOK TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS BUT PROBABLY AT A REDUCED INTENSITY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY BUT EASE TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND EVEN POSSIBLE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT THE LAKESHORE. DID GIVE CONSIDERATION TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ADDING TO TOTALS FROM THE MAIN BAND LATER ON...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE BAND WILL LAST OVER A GIVEN AREA AND HOW IT EVOLVES AFTER DAYBREAK...IN ADDITION TO THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING LIKELY BEING CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ADVISORY ROUTE FOR NOW.

MDB

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for the 2nd night in a row, we had 0.3" of lake effect rime snow (though last nights had 0.01" water, tonights 0.02"). Its funny...its like the tundra type of winter, pixie dust everywhere.


About an inch of crunchy powder on the ground (though 1.9" has fallen the last 3 days..this stuff settles)...took a pic of footprints on the deck...this rime sparkles!

3375-800.jpg

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LOT continues to bump up the point & click as well.  Was around an inch earlier today, then 1-3. then 2-4, now 3-5.  Plus an additional 1" tomorrow, so 4-6.

 

Coming down in buckets again as I speak, and from the 3rd floor it looks like we've passed 1", but that's merely a guesstimation.

 

 

Off to bed now.  I'll see in the morning whether we got plumed or not.

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Sarnia/Port Huron are getting rocked. When you see that kind of reflectivity on radar when it's this cold, you know there are some mad rates.

 

 

Reports via Fox2 WJBK. Most totals around 2-4" 

 

 

0730 AM     SNOW             PORT HURON              42.99N 82.43W01/24/2013  M2.4 INCH        ST. CLAIR          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER
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