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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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GRR seems pretty certain that a I-94 convergence band will set up but I'm not feeling it. Looks like we started a bit of a WSW flow??

I bet Calhoun and Jackson get dropped if current trends continue.

 

It isn't supposed to set up until around sunset tonight.

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It isn't supposed to set up until around sunset tonightt

 

GRR seems pretty certain that a I-94 convergence band will set up but I'm not feeling it. Looks like we started a bit of a WSW flow??

I bet Calhoun and Jackson get dropped if current trends continue.

 

Winds have been moving around from S to W to WSW this afternoon.  This is keeping anything too organized from happening so far.

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Indeed, Geos! I think I am going to change my location to Spring Lake township, because that is actually where I live...right on the Muskegon/Ottawa counties line. I have noticed that I picked a good location to live, as we often seem to get more than Muskegon itself...as is the case today. Over a foot now with snow (nice size flakes) just dumping on us!

Down near Allegan there are reports of 20 inches or so...I'm not sure if that is from the past several days or actual snow on the ground. What I do know is that what we are getting is very heavy, so Allegan, which is right under that solid band, could certainly have a large amount.

There are talks of a possible Southwest Lake enhanced event tomorrow night into Friday...which is when the Muskegon area is central location for nice snowfalls.

Winter has FINALLY arrived and I am so happy. Now, I hope our friends in Chicago and area can cash in some tomorrow when the winds go Northeast.

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IWX aviation update

NR TERM MESOSCALE DVLPMNTS WARRANT AN EARLY UPDATE. IMPRESSIVE SW TROUGH DROPPING SWD OVR NRN WI YIELDING RAPID UPSTREAM LL VEERING ACRS LK MI AND RAPID COOLING OF CLD TOPS SEEN IN IR. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY BLOSSOMING IN KIND AND NO DOUBT AUGMENTED W/SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM IN PLACE INADV OF MID LVL SW. SHRT TERM RUC ALG W/LATEST 18Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE QUITE OMINOUS LTR THIS EVENING W/DVLPMNT OF INTENSE LK SNOW BANDS. AND UNLIKE LAST SVRL DAYS...MUCH IMPROVED THERMAL ENVIRONMENT W/DEEP...SATURATED ASCENT INDICATED IN WHAT SHLD EVOLVE TWD A LG INTENSE SINGLE BAND AFT MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH WILL JUMP ON EXPANDING ADVSY INTO LAPORTE COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED ADDING ST JOE TOO PER PLACEMENT OF SOME HIGHRES GUIDANCE HWVR THINK DEEPENING NRLY LL FLW COMPONENT WILL PUSH BAND WWD. REGARDLESS A SVRL HOUR BURST OF MOD-HVY SNOW XPCD FOR MUCH OF NW IN/SW MI AS THE EVENING GOES ON. WILL FURTHER MONITOR BAND EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET.

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The Detroit wx ofice is taking about 3-6" maybe 8" for the eastern "Thumb" tonight where NE winds are suppose to begin. I didn't see where the present SW WSW winda will go NNE. Any thoughts on this?

 

The very weak clipper low situated over Lk Huron/Bruce Peninsula is going to sink south and dissolve. The corollary of this is that the winds are going to turn NNE for several hours tonight/early tomorrow. Some of the high res models are hitting the area from Pt. Huron to the thumb pretty hard. 

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Not more intense then the band I see over Lake Erie waiting to blast someone

 

Check out the band just SW of GRR..I bet 3-4" per hr

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Looks like the best moisture is moving out. Snow is eroding and breaking up closer to the lakeshore again and winds turning more north.

 

Yep.. Not looking good for us. Inch and if we are really lucky 2.. Not gonna be the 3+ they had been calling for that is for sure. Meso low screwed us good. Been snowing better then the radar would suggest but nothing too intense.

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