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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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Didn't fare quite as well as blackrock overnight.  This is normal since he is in a better are for LES.  We picked up about two inches yesterday evening/overnight.  This still brings up to about 9 or 10 inches so far with more in the forecast.  I am definitely not complaining, especially given that this exceeds many places yearly totals.

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Some impressive depths from the north to the south part of the cwa. One the news, an observer from Bellaire (15 miles south of me), reported 26" on the ground. Snowing nicely thismorning with flakes a bit bigger than the past few days.  Although, I've noticed the tiny talcom flakes take a lot to accumulate, but they settle less than big fluffy flakes do....just an fyi :P

 

01/23/2013  M3.0 INCH        BENZIE             MI   SPOTTER

            24HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 23 INCHES.

 

0433 AM     SNOW             PARADISE                46.63N 85.03W
01/23/2013  M4.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            24HR TOTAL THRU 8AM. SNOWDEPTH 23 INCHES.



 

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Picked up about 2" total from a persistent LES band yesterday afternoon. Had the perfect setup coming onshore just a hair north of Goderich, ON and extending SE to my backyard for about three hours.

Nice. We have close to nothing on the ground here in Hamilton except for a smattering of fluff in the shade in a few places. The last time I've seen more than an inch of snow on the ground was from our Boxing Day snowpack. Total disaster.

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Not sure what to think about les here today. Monday performed about as expected, maybe a bit better (1.3")

Yesterdays les (0.3") was a complete surprise. And today looked great on yesterdays hires nam but latest runs orient thr band sw to ne rather than west to east. Guess I will just hope for the best.

And NICE depth in paradise! For the first time in 3 years I may be able to go to paradise for my mid-late winter up north snow trip.

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Not sure what to think about les here today. Monday performed about as expected, maybe a bit better (1.3")

Yesterdays les (0.3") was a complete surprise. And today looked great on yesterdays hires nam but latest runs orient thr band sw to ne rather than west to east. Guess I will just hope for the best.

And NICE depth in paradise! For the first time in 3 years I may be able to go to paradise for my mid-late winter up north snow trip.

 

Was talking to the owner of Paradise Recreation, he was told by his accountant to just pad-lock the doors and walk away from the business. The guy took the business over 4 years ago and the lack of snowmobilers has almost sunk him. Last winter sucked for the lower peninsula, but all the good snow was from Grand Marais and west. Felt bad for the guy, at least they are reaping in the snow right now.

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Your long-term average is exactly what Toronto's long term average used to be. Everybody's taking a step down.

 

Very odd considering much of the lower lakes is going to see an average snow increase due to the 2000-2010 glory years will be factored in.

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Didn't fare quite as well as blackrock overnight.  This is normal since he is in a better are for LES.  We picked up about two inches yesterday evening/overnight.  This still brings up to about 9 or 10 inches so far with more in the forecast.  I am definitely not complaining, especially given that this exceeds many places yearly totals.

 

 

On the east side of GR, we have about 2-3 inches of snow accumulated but all that makes it out here is pixie dust. Seems like the best of the bands dies off near the Ottawa/Kent Co. border. Not complaining though, I have almost 2x the amount of snow on the ground that ORD has seen all winter. 

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Well the 2 locations you stated are right up there as getting the full fetch of the lake. The Tug can get upstream help as well in conjunction with the full length of Ontario and Orographic lift.

 

Marquette bands look like this. They rarely get a consolidated band over one location. Obviously they get insane yearly snowfall totals because the lake does not freeze and they get more events then the southern lakes. I'd say highest snowfall rates ranks like this in terms of lake effect

 

1.) Tug

2.) Buffalo

3.) South Bend

4.) GayLord

5.) Marquette.

 

 

 

Buffalo Lake effect is a consolidated band when going full tilt. 2 years ago I had 24 straight hours of thunder snow within a band.

 

 

 

South Bend does not really compare as north winds well aligned with moisture are very rare and one location does not get hit for an extended period of time and snowfall rates don't get near 5,6 inches per hour. At least from what I've researched.

 

I can agree with the Tug Hill being number one. For the rest of the cities, Buffalo certainly can get nailed with very heavy snow for long periods of time when a band sets up, but the frequency of bands setting up over the city and dumping for a while doesn't seem to be very high.

I would take several moderate events over the course of the winter over maybe one good significant event per winter personally, but I guess it depends on your preference.

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Nice band dropped 2" this past hour. flakes were really huge for a change, as well.

 

fwiw.... not trying to rub salt in anyone's wounds posting pics or obs. it's what I do and have done on the board since i was 15, and so do lots of others when they get signifigant weather.....

 

from inside my house:

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Nice band dropped 2" this past hour. flakes were really huge for a change, as well.

 

fwiw.... not trying to rub salt in anyone's wounds posting pics or obs. it's what I do and have done on the board since i was 15, and so do lots of others when they get signifigant weather.....

 

from inside my house:

attachicon.gif123136.JPG

You are fine Bo, you aren't throwing the LES in everyone's face touting it as the greatest thing ever. What you are doing is enjoying what you have been given, which some others should do more often.

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Nice band dropped 2" this past hour. flakes were really huge for a change, as well.

 

fwiw.... not trying to rub salt in anyone's wounds posting pics or obs. it's what I do and have done on the board since i was 15, and so do lots of others when they get signifigant weather.....

 

from inside my house:

It's pretty much implied that this thread is for LES... So, I don't see how it could be a problem here...

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Oh of course, I'd love to spend a week in a LES area during a LES outbreak just to see it.

 

Ditto that for me!

 

Great pictures weatherbo. Glad to see someone from here is documenting this northern LM event!

 

---

 

NAM looked pretty interesting for LES in NE IL and NW IN.

 

Inversion looks to be higher then the post Christmas event.

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Was talking to the owner of Paradise Recreation, he was told by his accountant to just pad-lock the doors and walk away from the business. The guy took the business over 4 years ago and the lack of snowmobilers has almost sunk him. Last winter sucked for the lower peninsula, but all the good snow was from Grand Marais and west. Felt bad for the guy, at least they are reaping in the snow right now.

I will never forget feb 2011. Cancelled my paradise trip..my depth was 16", theirs was 11". Simply unheard of. Still....feel bad if business owners left. Clearly a bad stretch of winters that would obviously change for the better in just a matter of time.

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