Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

Recommended Posts

The most intense snowfall rates you can receive east of the Rockies is Buffalo NY and the Tug Hill. I don't think anywhere comes close. We were getting 4-6 inches per hour back in 2001. We received 39 inches in 24 hours in 1995. I was only 8 at the time, but remember it like it was yesterday. I was not alive for the 1977 snowstorm but my dad said he was able to walk off the 2nd floor of his house onto hard snow. Telephone polls were buried...

Lake Michigan can come close (at least the southern part, don't know about farther north) at times...I've personally witnessed about 4" per hour in NW IN during a north flow event but the area you mentioned probably does see some of those really high rates more frequently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 793
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I know at the same time Buffalo had 82 inches in 2001 Petoskey,MI had 85 inches in the same LES storm and that same event in 1995 that brought Buffalo 39" SSM had 62"

 

Valpo had 22" in 3hrs in 1981. 

 

London Ontario had 60" in 3 days in 2010. 

 

Buffalo and tug is not the only places with intense LES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's that, and I know at least a couple nor'easters have produced 4-6 inch per hour snowfall rates. I recall one time an 8-inch an hour snowfall rate hit Massachusetts in a storm that dropped 20+ inches of snow in isolated spots within 6 hours. 

 

I cant even imagine what 8"/hr looks like. I can't even imagine what 4"/hr looks like. A couple of dozen feet of visibility? I don't think I've personally experienced much more than 3"/hr rates. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I cant even imagine what 8"/hr looks like. I can't even imagine what 4"/hr looks like. A couple of dozen feet of visibility? I don't think I've personally experienced much more than 3"/hr rates. 

In Mount Pleasant we had 3"/hr rates on a storm, 5" fell in a little over 90 minutes. Probably one of the most incredible snowfalls I ever seen, then it switched to ice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The most intense snowfall rates you can receive east of the Rockies is Buffalo NY and the Tug Hill. I don't think anywhere comes close. We were getting 4-6 inches per hour back in 2001. We received 39 inches in 24 hours in 1995. I was only 8 at the time, but remember it like it was yesterday. I was not alive for the 1977 snowstorm but my dad said he was able to walk off the 2nd floor of his house onto hard snow. Telephone polls were buried...

 

I understand the Tughil being susceptible to intense snowfall rates because of orographic considerations. But why do you consider Buffalo a favored location compared to other snowbelt locations, like Marquette or South Bend?

The Tug Hill has the longest fetch. Lake superior to Lake Huron to Lake Ontario.

Gaylord/Kalkaska generally has more dominate LES bands than most UP locations as well.... Longer fetch with both lakes feeding the band.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I cant even imagine what 8"/hr looks like. I can't even imagine what 4"/hr looks like. A couple of dozen feet of visibility? I don't think I've personally experienced much more than 3"/hr rates. 

 

Feb 2003 I was in Indian River,MI we had 5" in one hr. Then just like that it stopped. It was the most intense snow I ever seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM relatively bullish with LE in NE IL

Nice DGZ from just above the surface to 850 mb...it basically encompasses most of the mixed layer. Inversion heights just aren't that great but we'll have to watch to see if the band tries to stall because there will probably be some pretty good rates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems GRR is a little bullish for tomorrow.

 

From AFD.

FINALLY... HAVE ISSUED A NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR JACKSON..EATON AND INGHAM COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT NOT INCLUDING TONIGHT.GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS AN EXPANDING... POTENTIALLY INTENSE...I-94 CONVERGENCE BAND FROM 15Z-24Z WEDNESDAY. DECIDED TO TAKE THELEAP NOW... TO PROVIDE HEADS UP TO THE LAN/JXN AREAS FOR REDUCEDVSBYS AND SLICK TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 

Guess we will see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM does get the inversion up to around 800 mb or just above over southern Lake Michigan for a while on Thursday...not terrible especially with other favorable factors. It's often a question of how much other factors can compensate and this is no different.

 

That one event in December that hit by Alek wasn't too bad at all! Inversion heights were not all impressive. 775-800mb I believe.

 

I think a mesolow potential exists with this setup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Tug Hill has the longest fetch. Lake superior to Lake Huron to Lake Ontario. Gaylord/Kalkaska generally has more dominate LES bands than most UP locations as well.... Longer fetch with both lakes feeding the band.

 

I know the Keweenaw snowfall can kick some butt. They don't have that 400" snowfall post up for nothing!

 

How about the areas in the Appalachians that can catch the NW flow from the lakes? Anyone know how well those events perform?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That one event in December that hit by Alek wasn't too bad at all! Inversion heights were not all impressive. 775-800mb I believe.

 

I think a mesolow potential exists with this setup.

 

From GRR AFD.. Regarding meso low..

WINDS GO NORTHERLY THEN OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.THIS SCENARIO LOOKS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO MESO LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LKMI DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS SKIES CLEAR. WHATEVER MESOFEATURES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE FLOW GOES SOUTHTHEN SOUTHWEST IN LATER PERIODS... AND COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANTEVENT FOR MKG AND LDM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand the Tughil being susceptible to intense snowfall rates because of orographic considerations. But why do you consider Buffalo a favored location compared to other snowbelt locations, like Marquette or South Bend?

 

Well the 2 locations you stated are right up there as getting the full fetch of the lake. The Tug can get upstream help as well in conjunction with the full length of Ontario and Orographic lift.

 

Marquette bands look like this. They rarely get a consolidated band over one location. Obviously they get insane yearly snowfall totals because the lake does not freeze and they get more events then the southern lakes. I'd say highest snowfall rates ranks like this in terms of lake effect

 

1.) Tug

2.) Buffalo

3.) South Bend

4.) GayLord

5.) Marquette.

 

lakeeffect.gif

 

Buffalo Lake effect is a consolidated band when going full tilt. 2 years ago I had 24 straight hours of thunder snow within a band.

 

0011202150kbufbrefanim.gif

 

 

 

12012010les.png

lakeeffect1.jpg

 

South Bend does not really compare as north winds well aligned with moisture are very rare and one location does not get hit for an extended period of time and snowfall rates don't get near 5,6 inches per hour. At least from what I've researched.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a surprise lake effect band set up and train NW to SE over the heart of DTW/Wayne county tonight for a few hours of cold pixie dust. Had 0.3" of rime snow (0.01") with temps around 8F. Whats interesting is the band just sort of developed over DTW....not a band that stretched all the way west to Lake MI. Wintry looking night, snow depth around or just a tick under an inch despite having 1.6" fall the last 2 days (lake stuff settles).

 

The Hi-Res NAM always overdoes qpf, but what it shows is crazy west to east across S MI, through BTL-JXN-ARB-DTW. It at least gives an idea of what kind of bands are possible, rather than the broadbrushed lighter qpf of the GFS. Hoping tomorrow holds some surprises!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holy snow! It may have weakened a bit, but this snow now is big flakes that pile up! Just since 2 a.m. We have picked up several more inches of snow from the snow showers moving over the lakeshore. Judging from this, I say we could easily get more than 1 to 3 inches when the shortwave moves through. 10 to 12 inches on the ground now with more to come.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...