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Lake Effect Snow Potential 1/30- 2/06


Jonger

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What's your best guess for % of season snowfall that is LES for downtown Toronto? Just curious.

 

Also, if I recall correctly, didn't like 50% of your snowfall in Dec 2010 come via LES?

 

lol, how the fudge do you remember that? Yeah, it was at least 50% as that month was a synoptic desert.

 

I've always estimated downtown Toronto gets 25-33% of its annual snowfall from LES.

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Hmm its funny, i got like 2.6" here, lmao. Not bad at all. Unexpected for sure, caught alot of drivers off guard LOL. 

 

Not really that funny. The band just brushed north Scarborough.

 

And EC with another horrific job at forecasting. It was not modeled all that well, but once it became obvious that the band was becoming quasi-stationary, they should have moved to up pops/add accums.  

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Not really that funny. The band just brushed north Scarborough.

 

And EC with another horrific job at forecasting. It was not modeled all that well, but once it became obvious that the band was becoming quasi-stationary, they should have moved to up pops/add accums.  

yeah it was quite localized. 

 

I wasnt following the models, its been a fairly boring weather pattern so i've just been riding with EC's forecast over the past 1-2 weeks, lol. 

 

Yeah, EC is quite slow and conservative with their forecasts, aint nothing new. 

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LOT and IWX regarding lake effect chances off southern Lake Michigan on Thursday:

LOT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP DOWN THE LAKE WED NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW REFLECTION BETTER ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ORIENTATION OF THE ADVECTION IS MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN SEEN WITH THE RECENT COLD FRONTS...AND NUMEROUS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CONVERGENCE AXIS VEERING TOWARD NORTHWEST IN LATE WED NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY TOWARD COOK COUNTY THU MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT OVER PORTER AND LAKE COUNTIES. MODERATE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LARGE DELTA TS OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

IWX

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...FLOW RAPIDLY VEERS NORTH WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING BACK IN...THIS TIME IN ONE OR 2 DOMINANT BANDS THAT FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS LAPORTE/W BERRIEN AND POSSIBLY STARKE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY AROUND OR AFTER 6Z THU. SIGNALS LOOK GOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BAND. HOWEVER AS NOTED...COMBINATION OF SHORT TIME OVER WESTERN CWA BEFORE TRANSITION WEST AFTER 12Z AND LOW DGZ/EQ LEVELS WILL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACCUM.

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Muskegon is only the halfway point for me. Next move: the Tug Hill or the U.P.!

Geos,you should move to a snowbelt. I can tell LES interests you. :)

 

LES is an interesting thing! The thing of it is, can I find a job in a LES belt in my field. Another thing that interests me is orographic lift (mountain snow events). Not too much of that in the GL's. If I had to pick between a LES belt and a mountainous area that got a lot of snow, I'd take the latter. I'd take a LES belt over this area any day though. :)

 

Haha, I like the music in that video above! Epic.

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I've heard Don Paul say that less than a foot of snow fell during the blizzard of '77. Most of the accumulation was blown in off the frozen waters of Lake Erie along the extreme SW winds. 

 

Yup a foot of snow with 3-4 feet of snow on the ground and on lake Erie. 4-5 feet of snow blowing around with 70-75 mph winds. Worst storm in Buffalo's history. It made the 82 inches of snow in 4 days back in 2001 seem like chump change. ^_^

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Buffalo is so awesome

 

The most intense snowfall rates you can receive east of the Rockies is Buffalo NY and the Tug Hill. I don't think anywhere comes close. We were getting 4-6 inches per hour back in 2001. We received 39 inches in 24 hours in 1995. I was only 8 at the time, but remember it like it was yesterday. I was not alive for the 1977 snowstorm but my dad said he was able to walk off the 2nd floor of his house onto hard snow. Telephone polls were buried...

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The most intense snowfall rates you can receive east of the Rockies is Buffalo NY and the Tug Hill. I don't think anywhere comes close. We were getting 4-6 inches per hour back in 2001. We received 39 inches in 24 hours in 1995. I was only 8 at the time, but remember it like it was yesterday. I was not alive for the 1977 snowstorm but my dad said he was able to walk off the 2nd floor of his house onto hard snow. Telephone polls were buried...

 

I understand the Tughil being susceptible to intense snowfall rates because of orographic considerations. But why do you consider Buffalo a favored location compared to other snowbelt locations, like Marquette or South Bend?

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I understand the Tughil being susceptible to intense snowfall rates because of orographic considerations. But why do you consider Buffalo a favored location compared to other snowbelt locations, like Marquette or South Bend?

 

There's that, and I know at least a couple nor'easters have produced 4-6 inch per hour snowfall rates. I recall one time an 8-inch an hour snowfall rate hit Massachusetts in a storm that dropped 20+ inches of snow in isolated spots within 6 hours. 

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