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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Which is fine with me, lets hope it correlates to more snow

 

see below

looks like a full 24 hours of arctic air on the gfs

 

Models have been too extreme.  The OP GFS I think, JMHO has been fine if you merely glance at the rough pattern and ignore the extremes.  For some time now it's indicated an initial cold shot, moderation, a second cold shot etc.  Here's the problem though.  The 10 day cold shots are savage on the models as we approach 4-6 days it's cold but not severe and usually shorter/not as deep.  So instead of brutal air diving to the Gulf and setting us up for storm potential we get WNW to ESE trajectory cold that smashes any storm chances, deflects out quickly, rinse repeat.  My bet is the 10 day cold we see now that looks so promising fades like sand through an hourglass as the days approach.

 

We are definitely getting out of the week long torch, but JUST like this torch the epic return to winter may not be so epic.  The D10 storm...lots of nice cold air penetration into the deep south on the model but will we see that creep north with each run leaving us with a flatter pattern?  Ens seem to support deep diving cold, but we'll see.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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It is getting colder...we have a deep trough incoming, the pv is nearer to us, high latitude blocking keeps showing up, we have had a pretty active southern stream, models suggesting relaxes and reloads...i could go on, but lots of cold, lots of blocking, lots of energy.  We are very likely to do well over the next month.  Yippee!

 

PS it won't all show up nicely on the models too far in advance, but once we get past sunday, stuff will start to pop.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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That was a fantastic run for snowlovers in New England and full of potential, similar to yesterdays 12z Euro run which I thought was the best run of winter so far.  Lots of potential, its going to be fun watching the placement and evolution of this Polar Vortex.

 

Great times ahead for snow lovers :snowing:

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Really? I didn't quite see it that bad...even a couple of weenie snow events.

 

Again JMHO.

 

I won't hold my breath on the inverted trough ice for ages event on Tuesday.  After that it's 7+ days out, and I think there's a real hint that we're going to flatten things out.  That's just my opinion, I may well be totally wrong.  To me the next 6-8, maybe 9 days look meh.

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